TURKMENISTAN: NEW PRESIDENT, SAME OLD PROBLEMS

The world is still waiting for news from Turkmenistan that will give an idea of how the political situation will develop in the country. 

In Turkmenistan everything is perfectly calm on the surface. The first contested presidential elections in its history produced no surprises. The press reported widely that six candidates competed for the post of president: a Mejlis (parliament) deputy and first deputy mayor of Dashoguz Province, Amanyaz Atadzhykov; the acting president of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdymu-khammedov; the mayor of the town of Abadan in Ahal Province, Orazmyrad Garadzhayev; the head of administration of Garabekevul District in Lebap Province, Mukhammetnazar Gurbanov; the deputy minister of the oil and gas industry and mineral resources of Turkmenistan, Ishanguly Nuriyev; and the mayor of the town of Turkmenbashi in Balkan Province, Ashirniyaz Pomanov.

As was to be expected, national observers did not see any violations of legislation or international law and, moreover, emphasised the high level of organisation of the election campaign which proceeded in strict accordance with the country's legislation and the norms of international law. At the same time, the OSCE's rapporteur on human rights, Spanish Popular Party deputy Jesus Lopez-Medel, who led the OSCE delegation at the elections, has already declared that they were "more of a show, than elections, a farce instead of the genuine participation of citizens in the electoral process". In an interview from Ashgabat with a Spanish newspaper he said "the regime in Turkmenistan is as closed as in North Korea". "We were not allowed to be present when votes were counted," he said. "Everything had been decided in advance and the voting was only for show." The Spanish newspaper said that not a single foreign journalist could receive an entry visa to Turkmenistan.

The election results also produced no surprises - as expected, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov won by a large margin. The inauguration ceremony took place right away on 14 February. First, the chairman of the Central Electoral Commission of Turkmenistan, Murad Karriyev, announced the final results: 89.23 per cent voted for Berdymukhammedov.

Then, the inauguration ceremony began with all the attendant niceties. A camel-wool carpet was unrolled at the newly elected president's feet, a symbol of pure intentions. Then, Berdymukhammedov swore an oath on the Koran and Saparmurat Turkmenbashi's book, the Ruhname. The elders of the five provinces of Turkmenistan put round Berdymukhammedov's neck the presidential chain of office - a gold chain with an octagonal emblem.

Lure of the Gas Pipeline

However, many observers noted that the rank of the representatives of foreign delegations attending the new president's inauguration did not chime with Jesus Lopez-Mendel's statement. Official delegations from many countries honoured with their presence the inauguration of the president of Turkmenistan, an extremely closed country. Kazakhstan's delegation was led by President Nursultan Nazarbayev, Ukraine's by President Viktor Yushchenko, Tajikistan's by Imomali Rahmonov, Georgia's by President Mikheil Saakashvili, Russia's by government chairman Mikhail Fradkov, Turkey's by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Azerbaijan's by Prime Minister Artur Tahir oglu Rasizade, China's by the special representative of the chairman of the People's Republic of China, deputy chairman of the permanent committee of the National People's Congress, Ismail Aymat. There was also a US delegation led by Richard Boucher, assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asia, representatives of Armenia, Belarus, India, Kyrgyzstan, Libya, the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan, the Federal Republic of Germany and also OSCE Secretary-General Marc Perrin de Brichambaut and the EU's special representative for Central Asia, Pierre Morel. Analysts have no doubt that the reason for the interest can be found in the gas pipeline. Especially now that, after a series of Russian gas and oil wars, energy security is practically the most discussed topic in Europe. There's no need to mention that Russia's Gazprom has the status of a gas monopoly on the European market, largely thanks to Turkmen gas that it buys right from the well. Moreover, Sarparmurat Niyazov tried to wriggle off the Russian hook not long before his death but, unfortunately, without success. It looks as though the world is not ready in advance to isolate Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov and to refuse dialogue with him.

Moreover, even the Turkmen opposition is ready to do deals with the new president. They have hinted at the possibility of recognising the authorities' legitimacy. In any case, the representative of the Republican Party, Bairam Shikhmuradov, said that "it would not be constructive to question the legitimacy of the elections", although he also said that the "elections were organised and held with numerous violations from the point of view of generally accepted norms". Now, he said, "efforts must be made to establish cooperation" with the authorities. "Turkmenistan has lived under dictatorship for 15 years, so it is not worth expecting instant democracy," the Turkmen politician said. "But it is already a fact that there is something of a thaw and this process is irreversible." He said that there are some steps that the authorities should take in the near future: release political prisoners and cooperate with UN special structures and the Red Cross, which has been seeking access to Turkmenistan for many years. Talking about the possibility of the return of the opposition to the country, Shikhmuradov said: "It is not a matter of physically crossing the border but of being able to work inside the country."

Observers think that Shikhmuradov's statement looks like open political horse-trading: the opposition is ready to recognise the legitimacy of the elections if the new authorities allow it to work inside the country. It is another matter that Shikhmuradov and his supporters, who could not wage an impressive information campaign during the presidential elections either inside Turkmenistan or abroad, hardly present a serious enough force in the eyes of Berdymukhammedov's team to do business and reach agreement with. And the make-up of the delegations that came to the new Turkmen president's inauguration does not leave the opposition much hope of "doing deals in legitimacy". 

Internet Portent

However, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov is hardly likely to be able to change nothing and to operate in the old style. This applies both to domestic politics and to the gas agreements with Russia which he promises to keep at every suitable opportunity.

To be fair, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov is already promising changes which in Turkmenistan's circumstances can rightly be called revolutionary. In his inaugural speech he promised the restoration of 10 years' compulsory schooling. In addition, they are beginning to study foreign languages again, Russian and English. Berdymukhammedov also promised access to the Internet and mobile communications for every resident of Turkmenistan and gave an assurance that Turkmen boys and girls will study at the best foreign institutions of higher education, which was extremely problematic under Turkmenbashi. Three Internet cafes have already been opened in Ashgabat, government establishments are being connected electronically and a commission has emerged to hear complaints about the law-enforcement agencies. Journalists already joke that it is very easy to acquire a reputation as a revolutionary reformer in Turkmenistan: it is enough to reopen a library. And even his remarks in an interview with Turkmenistan magazine that democracy is a delicate substance that cannot be planted by force from outside, in a blind copy of foreign models, have not dispelled all hope. A country such as Turkmenistan is hardly likely to turn into Holland or Norway the morning after the elections. Nevertheless, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov's shy reforms are bound to have an effect, maybe not right away but there will be results over time.

However, the new Turkmen president has far less time than might appear at first glance.

First of all, many analysts warn that the struggle for power "in the corridors and under the carpet" in Turkmenistan did not stop with the election of the president but is just beginning. Region Plus has already shown that Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov was seen from the very beginning in Turkmenistan as a temporary compromise. Moreover, all this is taking place against the backdrop of the worldwide "gas war" and it hardly needs to be mentioned that Moscow is ready to make serious efforts to keep control of Turkmen gas, while the Western countries are also ready to try and take Turkmenistan's blue fuel out of Russia's monopoly control. It is not difficult to imagine in Turkmenistan's situation that in the near future "pro-Moscow" and "pro-Western" groupings could form in Ashgabat's corridors of power, each of which will lobby for their own interests and not always play according to the rules. Each of the groupings could have their own leader, who will use foreign support to try and gain a higher, if not the highest, post in the Turkmen hierarchy. If hardly anyone dared to challenge the omnipotent Turkmenbashi, it's different with Berdymukhammedov. And the president's decision to change the text of the sadly notorious oath of allegiance to Saparmurat Turkmenbashi gives real food for thought, even though it may seem like a political joke. In the oath which begins every morning in the schools, colleges, state bodies and even kindergartens, of Ashgabat, he replaced "the great prophet Turkmenbashi" with "the president". It looks as though Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov is trying to defend himself from political unpleasantness in even this exotic way.

The Hunger Factor

In addition, analysts do not rule out the danger of a social explosion in Turkmenistan, or to put it more simply, a revolt by the hungry. During the first years of independence Turkmenistan was clearly trying to be the Persian Gulf "oil emirates"on the Caspian. Luxury palaces and mosques, parks and fountains were built in Ashgabat, enormous gold-plated statues of the "chief" were erected, counting on substantial gas revenues, until they fell under the Russian price knife. Gazprom bought Turkmen gas literally for pennies and the country had no other export options; egged on by the Russians, Turkmenbashi had the sense to inflame relations with Azerbaijan to the limit. The situation is completely different now, the poverty of the Turkmen countryside shocks even hardened international officials. A day before his ceremonial inauguration Berdymukhammedov had to sign a decree on a new procedure for the sale of flour on the internal market and on strengthening supervision of the uninterrupted supply of flour to the population at the established state price - the country had a severe shortage of bread.

Everything looks just right in reports, as is always the case in totalitarian states. According to official statistics, 3.6 million tonnes of grain were harvested in Turkmenistan, while domestic demand is for 1.7 million tonnes. But it became clear already last November that there was not enough bread for the coming year, grain stores were empty and the record harvest was nothing but inflated reporting. In May prices doubled and trebled for bread and flour. On 24 November the now late Turkmenbashi warned: "There is not enough bread for everyone in 2007." The media say that then it emerged that the grain stores were almost empty while the winter sowing was scuppered. Fearing the wrath of the father of all the Turkmen, officials grossly inflated the figures. Turkmen citizens panicked and bought up bread, flour, and pasta while the prices for imported flour shot up. Funds were not allocated in the budget to buy imported flour and, despite all the reserves of gas and oil, there is little room for manoeuvre here. The same is true for the major projects dreamt up by Berdymukhammedov. The only reserve that Ashgabat theoretically has at its disposal is the "gas money", but the country needs to create different export opportunities and tear up the gas agreements with Russia if this money is to reach the Turkmen budget and not mount up in Gazprom. The near future will show whether Turkmenistan is ready for this.