BATTLE FOR CAUCASUS

Great and regional powers have been waging a struggle for influence here since the states of the South Caucasus restored their independence 15 years ago. All means are employed in the matter depending on the situation: military and political pressure by some and support by others. Economic and humanitarian aid, investments, trade and migration privileges, energy resources, communications and so forth are widely used for political ends. The trump card persistently played by Moscow up until now is that of separatism and ethnic conflicts.  In their turn, the USA and the European states lay emphasis on their own financial and technological supremacy and also the attractiveness for the countries of the region of western models of integration - NATO and the European Union. 

The end of last year and the start of this year were marked by many events of this kind. The intensive diplomatic contacts at the highest level and also the visits by high-ranking politicians and military to the region are striking. Preparations have been begun for implementing large-scale communications and production projects reflecting clashing or competing interests in the region or serious consideration of such projects has been announced. In a word, "the great game", as US geopolitical expert Zbigniew Brzezinski figuratively called all this, is continuing everywhere. Although Georgia is more often talked about, thanks to the pro-western policy persistently proclaimed by the leadership of that country, it is obvious that Azerbaijan is the main prize in the struggle for the South Caucasus. Armenia is merely a tool by which the powers are trying to achieve their aims in the region. 

But first of all, about Georgia. The leadership of this country does not hide its intentions to join NATO fast track. The USA openly supports this, assigning additional financial aid for reforming and modernizing the Georgian armed forces in line with NATO standards. In its turn, Moscow states that it categorically rejects the expansion of the North Atlantic alliance in the South Caucasus but it has lost practically all levers of influence on the policy of official Tbilisi through its ill-considered tough actions. The whole set of sanctions adopted by Russia last year against Georgia failed to yield practical results. Time is passing and once Russian military bases have been evacuated completely in the next year to 18 months, there will be nothing left to stop Georgia rushing to join NATO.  Evidently, it was recognition of the ineffectiveness of the policy of pressure and threats which prompted Moscow to restore frozen diplomatic relations with Georgia. The ambassador of the Russian Federation has returned to Tbilisi. It is expected that air and postal links will be restored and that visas will be issued again. Moreover, hints are given that wine, mineral water, fruit and other traditional Georgian exports may be allowed on to the Russian market again under certain conditions.

Azerbaijan's support in supplying energy to and its solidarity with Georgia have played a substantial role in neutralizing Russian pressure on that country. It is not only our gas, electricity and oil products which have gone to Georgia - our investments have gone there too. The terminal in Kulevi acquired by SOCAR should be noted, in particular. It can receive up to 10 million tonnes of oil annually and its capacity will double or triple after reconstruction work is completed. Incidentally, it is possible that additional amounts of Caspian oil will go in future to Ukraine, a GUAM ally, from here so that this country can finally commission the Odessa-Brody pipeline and diversify its oil supply sources. 

The signing on 7 February in Tbilisi of a framework agreement on the Kars-Tbilisi-Baku railway project was a notable event. Azerbaijan allocated for this a long-term credit of 220 million dollars to Georgia which lacks investment resources. The new Tbilisi airport was opened at the same time. It was built by a Turkish company which has taken over its long-term management. The presidents of Georgia and Azerbaijan, and also the prime minister of Turkey, attended these ceremonies. Their presence shows what attention is given at the very highest level to the further strengthening of regional cooperation.   

Communication projects (oil pipelines, gas pipelines, railroads, highways) implemented and planned by Azerbaijan in partnership with Georgia and Turkey are creating the material base for the region's integration into the European space. The recent visits and talks by President Ilham Aliyev in France, and then in Germany, clearly demonstrate the high priority given to this sphere in Azerbaijan's policy. The GUAM partnership is being strengthened in parallel and the visit to Baku by Vasile Tarlev, the prime minister of Moldova, was another landmark in this.

Against this background, the situation of Armenia, which by dint of its own destructive policy has found itself sidelined in major regional projects, is giving rise to ever greater alarm in the ruling circles of this country and among its foreign patrons. Yerevan is trying to counteract the ever strengthening Baku-Tbilisi-Ankara axis and the GUAM partnership with the Moscow-Yerevan-Tehran axis. Thus, during the recent visit by Robert Kocharyan to Russia and his talks with President Putin in Sochi, the media reported that the Gazpromneft company was looking at the feasibility of building a major oil refinery in the vicinity of Megri, right on the Armenian-Iranian border. According to the Russian newspaper Kommersant, at issue is an oil refinery with a capacity of up to 7 million tonnes of oil annually at a minimum cost of 1.7 billion dollars. 

Most Russian and even Armenian experts think that this project does not make economic sense. For Armenia does not have oil of its own or its own pipeline network and the volume of local consumption is tiny - a quarter of a million tonnes of oil products annually. So it is planned to supply the raw materials for the planned refinery from Iran and to supply oil products to Iran from the refinery. A 200-km-long pipeline will have to be laid from Tabriz in Iran (where there is an oil refinery). A railway branch line will have to be built and almost an additional 1bn dollars will have to be spent on this. Taking all of that on board, one cannot help coming to the conclusion that the talk about the construction of an oil refinery in Armenia is just a bluff designed to mitigate somewhat the effects of the successful projects implemented by Azerbaijan, Tbilisi and Turkey.

The resources which it seems Russia plans to invest in this project are badly needed to upgrade its own obsolete oil refineries, to increase the depth of oil refining and to produce products which meet modern ecological demands. The Megri oil refinery project also badly accords with Tehran's new oil policy under which by 2012 all the petrol used in the country should be produced directly on Iranian territory. Hypothetically, the Armenian oil refinery may serve Iran if the USA decides to carry out a military operation against Iran but large-scale investment projects are not built on such shaky foundations. 

Moscow's military plans connected with Armenia are expanding unlike its economic projects. A new modernised Russian-Armenian joint anti-aircraft system, formed by strengthening Armenia's anti-aircraft system and the 102nd Russian base, was announced in the middle of February. According to Army Gen Vladimir Mikhaylov, commander of the Air Force of the Russian Federation, the joint anti-aircraft system, equipped with state-of-the-art military technology (not only the S-300 but also the newer S-400) can easily control all the airspace from Armenia to the Russian borders. 

At a time when Moscow is making amendments, if not to avert, then at least to slow down the drift by Georgia and Azerbaijan westwards, Washington and the European Union are taking steps to change Armenia's direction. A draft resolution has been presented to the US Congress on recognising the Armenian genocide in Ottoman Turkey. It is resolution number 106. According to reports which have filtered through to the media, the Bush administration is demanding that Turkey open up its border with Armenia in exchange for halting the adoption of the resolution. The European Union is enticing Yerevan with economic aid within the framework of its Neighbourhood Policy. At the same time, the West is stepping up efforts to get the process of the peaceful settlement of the Karabakh conflict out of deadlock. 

The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group on the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict, Yuriy Merzlyakov (Russia), Matthew Bryza (USA) and Bernard Fassier (France) met in Paris on 14-15 February in the presence of Andrzej Kasprzyk, the personal representative of the OSCE chairman-in-office.  The Armenian foreign minister, Vardan Oskanyan, turned up unexpectedly at the meeting. A statement was issued after the meeting of the co-chairs of the Minsk Group in Paris which expressed the hope "that the sides will use the momentum to develop talks in the forthcoming months and that the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan will meet again soon to overcome the outstanding differences on the basic principles of a future settlement agreement". At the same time, the co-chairs called upon the parties "to avoid any action anywhere, including in the UN General Assembly, that could undermine the positive development in the talks of recent months". 

It is obvious that the Minsk Group of intermediaries is making efforts to ensure that the so-called "Prague Process" does not "give up the ghost" completely during the time-out taken by the Armenian side due to the election campaign. Evidently, the Armenian leadership lacks unity both in this question and with regard to unilateral dependence on Russia. Armenian foreign minister, Oskanyan, recently spoke of the desirability of Armenia joining in future the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline (a project which Russia opposes by all means) and he did not rule out the possibility of progress in the peace settlement after the parliamentary elections in May. In turn, Armenian president, Robert Kocharyan, expressed great skepticism on this at a meeting with representatives of the diaspora during an official visit to Paris. It can be supposed that the president of France, Jacques Chirac, was unable to persuade Kocharyan to behave constructively and to tear him away from unilateral orientation towards Moscow. 

As we can see, the struggle for influence in the region is not weakening. It is obvious that Russia and the West want to play their cards in the South Caucasus game of patience in their own way. However, the voices of the states of the region itself, and in the first place, of Azerbaijan, are growing stronger with every passing year. From being a pawn, and sometimes a victim of the geopolitical game of the great powers, Azerbaijan is increasingly turning into an active player. It is becoming difficult to ignore its potential and will, and it soon will be impossible to ignore them. Evidently, the Armenian card in the regional game of patience by the great powers won't be played soon.