NON-PEACE PLAN

In all likelihood, the resolution of the Serbia-Kosovo conflict is about to enter into the most intense and responsible phase. At the same time, no-one can say with confidence that this will be the final phase. It has been eight years since the campaign of ethnic cleansing in this region was stopped following international intervention. Since that time, the territory with a population of 2 million people has been run by the UN, and a 16,000-strong NATO contingent is still there. The USA and the European Union have been exploring diplomatic channels to find an acceptable solution to the problem. On the one hand, these efforts were aimed at recognition of Kosovo as an independent country where the rights of the Serb minority would be protected, and, on the other, at prevention of Serbia's discontent resulting in its diplomatic and military severance from Kosovo. At the same time, the solution was also supposed to please Russia which is another important player in the Balkans. At the present time, the size of the temporary UN contingent is reducing. However, the UN cannot hand over responsibility to the European Union administration and police force completely until an appropriate Security Council resolution is adopted to that effect.

Some details of the plan 

The special envoy of the UN secretary general, Martti Ahtisaari, during negotiations on the political status of Kosovo in early February, offered his own plan of resolving the regional problem to the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo (prior to that - in late January - the plan had been presented to the six-nation Kosovo Contact Group comprised of US, British, French, German, Italian and Russian diplomats). In doing so, he declined to reveal details of the plan. This was done by western diplomats and experts close to them. Many diplomats have described the suggestions brought by Ahtisaari to Belgrade as a platform on the basis of which the province's independence will be declared, even though the wording of the plan on the determination of the political status of Kosovo does not contain the word "independence". According to the formula being proposed, Kosovo will not automatically become independent, but will acquire many rights of an independent state. Under the plan, Kosovo will obtain the right to conclude international agreements and enter international organizations. The province will have its own constitution and symbols, including the state flag and the national anthem, which will reflect its multinational nature - to counter the currently used Albanian two-headed eagle. Ethnic minorities, the Serbs in particular, will enjoy exceptional rights and will be guaranteed protection in the province. The document also stipulates the establishment of professional and multi-national "Kosovo security forces" numbering not more than 2,500 people (plus 800 reservists) who will be provided with light armament and have a civilian control body. The province will also exercise control over its borders. Kosovo will effectively have all the attributes of an independent state, but with limited sovereignty. The administration of Kosovo in the transition period will be practically handed over to international organizations whose efforts in this period of transition (the duration of which has not been defined) will be supported by a NATO military contingent. Commenting on the said plan, the US newspaper Washington Post says that as soon as the UN SC approves these conditions, the Kosovo government led by the Albanians will be able to declare independence and will quickly receive the recognition of the USA and the majority of European countries. Serbia can object to that, but will not be able to hamper the new structure. The newspaper also points to another possible scenario - Serbian extremists in Kosovo are likely to respond to the declaration of independence with violence, and so are Albanian nationalists who will be frustrated that independence is not complete. A potentially secessionist Serbian state may emerge in the north of Kosovo or in neighboring Bosnia.

Belgrade rejects Ahtisaari plan

The real content of the plan can also be judged by the reaction of the Serbian side to it. The suggestions on the political status of Kosovo, which stipulate independence of the province, are unacceptable for Serbia, Serbian President Boris Tadic has said. "Ahtisaari's plan is opening the way for the independence of Kosovo," Tadic said in a statement. "Serbia and I, personally, will never agree to the independence of Kosovo." While indicating that the Ahtisaari plan does not directly talk about the independence of the province, Tadic stressed that "the imposed independence of Kosovo will run counter to the principles of international law and set a dangerous political and legal precedent". At the same time, he said Ahtisaari's initiative does contain suggestions on a number of issues, including the decentralization of power and protection of churches and monasteries, which "will be carefully studied". He pledged to inform leaders of parliamentary factions of the suggestions made by the special envoy of the UN secretary general.

Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica was not any less categorical. He described Ahtisaari's suggestions on the future political status of Kosovo as "illegitimate". Kostunica said the suggestions "represent a breach of the UN charter and principles of international laws, and are therefore illegitimate". The Serbian prime minister believes that Ahtisaari has transcended his mandate because his suggestions are affecting not only the sovereignty and integrity of Serbia but are also altering the internationally recognized borders". The Democratic Party of Serbia, which was earlier led by Kostunica, received 46 parliamentary seats in the latest election and demands that other parties adopt a joint statement that Serbia will sever its relations with all countries which will recognize Kosovo, just as the FRG was severing its relations with all countries recognizing the existence of the GDR in the 1960s. While vigorously rejecting the independence of the province, Belgrade is offering the Kosovo Albanians a "considerable autonomy" and insists on preserving what one senior Serbian official described as "a symbolic membrane of Serbian sovereignty". 

The reaction to the plan in Kosovo proper was also rather mixed. Representatives of a number of Albanian organizations insist on complete independence of the province and intend to conduct actions of protest in the capital of Kosovo, Pristina, on the day of the visit by the UN special envoy. At the same time, Kosovo Prime Minister Agim Ceku expressed his confidence that Ahtisaari's suggestions would eventually prove successful. In his opinion, the document is paving the way for independence. "The suggestion of mediators describes an independent state, even though the word "independence" is not mentioned. However, I am sure that we will finalize our current status before the end of this year," Agim Ceku was quoted by Noviye Izvestiya newspaper as saying.

At the same time, political circles in Kosovo are not interested in driving Serbia up the wall. Belgrade's refusal to cooperate with the UN and the EU, as well as the unclear position of Russia in this case, may in the best scenario lead to a series of unilateral recognitions of Kosovo's independence on the part of its European "advocates". And in this case the legitimacy of this process will be highly suspicious. Therefore, there is a strong desire to secure independence not through conflict and sustained tension in relations with Belgrade, but as a result of a peace process within the UN SC framework. British newspaper Financial Times carries a characteristic statement by a high-ranking political adviser for the Kosovo administration, Muhamet Hamiti: "We have been independent since 1999, but now we want our sovereignty to be recognized by the international community. We do not want independence and sovereignty to be given to us as a present."

Position of the European Union 

The European Union in the name of Germany, presiding nation in the EU in the first six months of this year, has supported the suggestion of the special envoy of the UN secretary general to conduct in-depth negotiations on the political status of this Serbian province with representatives of Kosovo and Serbia. "The EU presidency clearly supports Ahtisaari's intention to conduct in-depth talks with both parties and to organize negotiations on the basis of the suggestion in the weeks that will follow the submission," says the statement Germany has made on behalf of the EU. "The EU president urges Belgrade and Pristina to treat the negotiations seriously and without any preconditions. Both parties have to display responsibility and flexibility and act in the name of a realistic compromise." According to the EU, the determination of the political status of Kosovo "will make the decisive contribution to stability in the region", Interfax news agency reports. "It will also become an important step towards bringing Serbia, Kosovo and the region as a whole closer to European and Euro-Atlantic entities. For his part, the commissioner for the EU expansion, Oli Ren, called on Belgrade and Pristina to "deeply and constructively" engage in the process of determining the political status of Kosovo. "I hope that both parties will demonstrate responsibility, flexibility and understanding of the need for a realistic compromise," Oli Ren has said. He also stressed that the European Commission was welcoming the plan on the political status of Kosovo proposed by special envoy of the UN secretary general, Martti Ahtisaari. According to the commissioner, the European Commission continues to adhere to the principle of complete integration of Western Balkans into the European Union, which can be viewed as some sort of compensation for Belgrade's refusal to provide sovereignty to Kosovo.

By and large, the EU and the USA are seeing the Kosovo problem as the main source of instability in the Balkans and are not concealing their position that the only way out of the deadlocked eight-year discussions on the future status of Kosovo is the recognition, albeit on a stage-by-stage basis, of the independence of this region. At the same time, they are not interested in this independence provoking an outbreak of violence and tension in the region and retaliatory actions by discontented Serbia. Therefore, the EU and NATO understand that they will have to apply a lot of effort to persuade Serbia to accept the peace plan.

In this connection it is worth mentioning that first "cracks" have recently appeared in what used to be a single position of the European Union on the Kosovo issue. For instance, Poland and Slovakia have suddenly come out against Ahtisaari's plan. The president of Poland has spoken out in favor of a broad autonomy for Kosovo within Serbia, while the head of the international affairs committee of the Slovak parliament expressed concern that the Hungarian minority could take advantage of the "Kosovo precedent". Canada, Romania, Hungary and other countries with potential hotbed of ethnic and separatist conflicts are not, to put it mildly, impressed with the EU plan either. 

But the biggest obstacle the USA and the European Union will have to overcome is the stubborn position of Moscow. The parties failed to bring their positions on the Kosovo settlement closer together Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's visit to Washington and negotiations with the US administration in early February. The Russian minister acknowledged after returning to Moscow that "Kosovo is the subject on which the differences in our views are of principal nature". "So far we do not agree on how this problem must be resolved," Lavrov stressed. There is no "common view" between Moscow and the EU either, and this has been confirmed during the Moscow meeting of the Russian foreign minister with the so-called EU group of three - German Foreign Minister Steinmeier, EU high representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy Javier Solana and EU Commissioner for External Relations and European Neighborhood Policy Benita Ferrero-Waldner. Having said that solution to this issue is the key task of the EU this year, Solana placed "special responsibility" for seeking solution to the status on Russia, but failed to secure its reciprocal support. The difficult side of the issue is that neither Washington nor European capitals have found the answer to the key question in the Kosovo issue - how to bring Russia along and what price to pay for its agreement to the decision in favor of secession of the province. This decision has effectively been reached in behind-the-scenes talks between NATO and the EU.

And Moscow can name a very tall price. In the middle of January, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Moscow would only support the decision in the UN SC which will be acceptable for both Belgrade and Pristina. He also recalled of a provision of the still valid 1999 Resolution on Kosovo whereby a Serbian military contingent of a fixed number could return to the province to take part in the control over border crossings and possessions of the Serbian church. This mention of Serb military presence in Kosovo should have seriously scared Western mediators. But even more dangerous for the world community would be the possibility that Russian may apply the Kosovo model to the conflicts still smoldering in post-Soviet republics. And there is no denying that Moscow has unlimited opportunities in this area, both from the standpoint of international law, and from the political and military angle. And it is already sending appropriate signals - on 31 January the official website of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs carried a report for mass media with an eloquent headline "On a meeting of the secretary of state, deputy minister of foreign affairs of Russia, G. B. Karasin, with the minister of foreign affairs of Dnestr Region, V. A. Litskay". Therefore, the situation in the run-up to another round of talks on the Kosovo settlement has become even more entangled and unpredictable. Belgrade and Pristina are still taking opposing positions, while the leading world players are expressing less hope for the soonest settlement of the problem. At the same time, they are bracing for further diplomatic wrangling for more advantageous conditions for the division of the "Serbian pie". This perhaps is the peculiarity of the current stage in the Kosovo settlement.