STRETCHED TO BREAKING POINT

The debate around the main direction of the country's foreign policy is continuing in Armenia. Some are pompously describing it as a "civilized choice", whereas others prefer simpler and more cutting terms such as "fanning about". But, essentially, nothing has changed: Yerevan is still in no hurry to answer the question whether it wants to continue a course to European integration or prefers to move towards integration with Russia. Opinions range from mortal affront towards a Russia that is supplying weapons to Azerbaijan to perfectly sound advice to compare what Russia has done in Armenia and for Armenia, and what the European Union has done. And it is not only Armenian politicians who are taking part in this debate: many Russian experts, from lobbyists like Kolerov and Zatulin to political experts and analysts, are also expressing their opinions on this crucial issue.

Against this backdrop the popular Yerevan-based news and analysis website Tert.am had an interview with the acclaimed Russian expert Fedor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of the "Russia in Global Politics" magazine. When it was put to him that "the former Russian ambassador to Armenia Vyacheslav Kovalenko said in a recent interview that in the context of signing the Agreement on Armenia's association with the EU 'the road to Hell is paved with good intentions', what do you think this 'Hell' is?", the Russian expert replied bluntly: "Armenia has its own Hell and it has nothing to do with signing an agreement with the EU or anyone else. And by 'Hell' I mean this isolated and constricted position that Armenia finds itself in, which virtually means that Armenia is unable to take a serious part in any integration projects either with Russia or the EU."

Fedor Lukyanov proved to be one of the few people among the Yerevan news scene who had the courage to "speak out" about what has been "obvious" for a long time, but which no-one in Yerevan wants to say out loud. Armenia has not just become disillusioned with its closest ally, Russia. The country has, in point of fact, found itself in a political blind ally. Incidentally, from the outset Armenia never doubted that with regard to Yerevan both Russia and the European powers would be guided by certain "moral obligations" and "duty as allies" of the times of the First World War. And they were completely unprepared that cooperation, theoretically speaking, is a two-way street. And an Armenia that is ex-communicated from large-scale regional projects as a result of its own aggressive policy simply does not interest potential allies in the way that Yerevan has been trying to depict itself. And the outcome has been utterly predictable: having found itself in this "constricted position", Armenia is unable to take part in integration projects and has simply deprived itself of any realistic opportunities for development - unlike its neighbours in the region, especially Azerbaijan. Moreover, our country's steady and dynamic development and the increase in the attention of the world community towards Azerbaijan have led to perfectly predictable "advances" in such a delicate issue as attitude to "frozen" conflicts. Today, Armenia's occupation of Azerbaijani territories is not just Azerbaijan's problem, but also a real threat to European security, and all the ensuing consequences, as they say. Unfortunately, for Armenia and for its neighbours in the region the ruling group in that country - the "Karabakh clan" - has not so far shown that it is prepared to conduct a reasonable policy that meets, first and foremost, the interests of Armenia itself, and also its citizens. But here they cannot fail to realize, either, that pressure is growing on Armenia both from outside and the power "from below" - from the growing "protest electorate". In this connection, many analysts are also noting indirect signs of a split "at the top" in Armenia.

In particular, it is precisely in the context of a stand-off between various power groups that many people here see the speech by the head of Armenia's Control Chamber, Ishkhan Zakaryan, that caused such a stir in parliament, when he told deputies the shocking news that up to 70% of Armenia's budget funds are not being spent for their designated purpose. In other words, they are simply being squandered.  He pointed the finger mainly at the country's Prime Minister Tigran Sarkisyan. But time passed and Zakaryan remained in his post, as did Tigran Sarkisyan. The conflict could in theory be said to be over, but in Yerevan many experts are noting that this is not the only "fault line" in the authorities.

The speaker of the Armenian parliament, Ovik Abramyan, has also become worthy of attention. As the Yerevan-based "Zhokhovurd" newspaper writes, during a recent session of the executive body of Armenia's ruling Republican Party, its leader, President Serzh Sargsyan, asked Tigran Sarkisyan in very sharp tones what was the point of sending members of the controlling inspectorate of the Finance Ministry to check on Jonik Abramyan, the brother of the speaker, Ovik Abramyan. "Aren't you ashamed of doing such things against one another?" Serzh Sargsyan reproached them, the paper goes on, pointing out that, according to its information, "the head of the Finance Ministry's controlling inspectorate, Sona Garibyan, said at a press conference that 70% of the diesel fuel subsidized by the government for Ararat Region had been bought by Ovik Abramyan's brother and nephew, but there was nothing criminal about it".

It will be recalled that independent analysts in Yerevan have accused Ovik Abramyan of virtually "conspiring" against the prime minister. Other experts already believe that "Operation Successor" has begun in Armenia: against the background of Serzh Sargsyan's political bankruptcy, the "Karabakh klan" is, apparently, looking for someone to replace him so that in the event of a dramatic development of events they can preserve their "overall" positions.

Ovik Abramyan, unlike Serzh Sargsyan, was not born in Karabakh, but in Artashat. It was there that he made his political career. And today, many Yerevan analysts believe, opposition groups, including Levon Ter-Petrosyan's Armenian National Congress and Gagik Tsarukyan's "Prosperous Armenia" may support him. Incidentally, Robert Kocharyan, the former Armenia president, who is openly being named as Sargysan's "most dangerous rival", is a member of the latter.

At the moment it is hard to judge how the current stage of rivalry in Armenia's power structures will end. However, there is no doubt that in this country, where the real economy is in a state of collapse and there is a lack of opportunity for development, the authorities and the corrupt schemes that are inherent in them are, essentially, the only business that can be relied on. And this means they will fight for it with the same ferocity as for a cupful of "humanitarian" rice.