100 DAYS OF DIVIDED INDEPENDENCE

As a result of Kosovo's unilateral secession from Serbia, this self-proclaimed state, Serbia itself and, we can say without exaggeration, the whole world have been split into two opposing camps. In Kosovo, these consist of the Kosovan Albanians and the Serbs who still live in the province. In Serbia, half of the population believes that the future of the country lies within the EU, while the other half blames Europe for the loss of 15 per cent of the country's territory. And finally, on a global scale, a number of states saw Kosovo's secession as a natural process and a fair solution to the conflict, while all others regarded it as a gross violation of international law and as setting a dangerous precedent.

Meanwhile, against the backdrop of all these disputes, the divided independence of the Serbian province of Kosovo marked its first 100 days and the region is gradually approaching another remarkable event - 15 June, when the region's constitution, drawn up by Pristina in association with the European Union and approved by the local parliament in the middle of April, will take effect. The document which declares the "Republic of Kosovo" "an independent, sovereign, democratic, united and indivisible state", has been praised highly by Brussels as "one of the most progressive constitutions in the world in terms of guarantees of human rights and protection of minorities". However, apart from the constitution itself, 15 June is also important to the Kosovo authorities because they link this day to the cancellation of UN Security Resolution 1244 on the territorial integrity of Serbia and UN jurisdiction over Kosovo (from 1999). One of the main tasks of the UN civil mission in Kosovo is to ensure security in the region and supervise the work of state institutions. Pristina insists on a full handover of power from the UN mission to local authorities on the basis of the plan drawn up in 2007 by the then special envoy of the UN secretary-general, Martti Ahtisaari. In order to maintain law and order, the UN presence in the province should be replaced by a European civilian police force. The EU made a decision in February on the composition and start-date of the EU civil mission to Kosovo. However, Serbia and the countries which support it, mainly those countries that have the right of veto in the UN Security Council - Russia and China, maintain that the mission will be illegitimate without Security Council sanction.

As a result, various opinions and assumptions are being voiced on this issue. For example, it is planned that, at first, the UN and EU missions will work together and then they will divide spheres of influence between them. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has suggested the same, trying his best to devise an acceptable solution. If the Security Council is ignored again, this may greatly damage the image of an organization which has already been tarnished by a number of unpleasant scandals of late. In turn, the top EU representative on foreign and defence policy, Javier Solana, suddenly announced that only the UN Security Council can make a decision on the form of any international presence in Kosovo, which actually implies support for Serbia's position. The media immediately reported that everything is being put on hold until either autumn or until it is possible to convince Belgrade and Moscow. Incidentally, it must be remembered that the Antisaari plan was not approved by the UN Security Council either.

All this shows once again that the EU is divided over the independence of Kosovo. Spain, Romania, Greece, Cyprus, Portugal, Slovakia and Malta are flatly against the unilateral secession of the Serbian province. At the end of May, these countries expressed their dissatisfaction that Kosovo's flag was hoisted during an inter-parliamentary meeting of delegations from the European Parliament and Kosovo at the European Parliament building in Brussels. Members of the Greek delegation in the European Parliament proposed not just investigating the circumstances of this action, but also condemning its organizers.

Meanwhile, Russia remains the main opponent of Kosovo's independence. It is often accused of using the so-called "Kosovo precedent" for its own purpose - to support the separatist regions of Georgia - Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Moscow "bears a grudge" against Tbilisi for a number of reasons, the main one being Georgia's strong desire to join NATO. This opinion is further confirmed by the fact that, apart from the activity of the Abkhaz and South Ossetians, other "recognized and not so recognized" separatists do not really attract attention, i.e. luckily, "the sovereignty parade" which Russia was talking about has not happened. It is possible, of course, that the example of the half-state of Kosovo does not look very impressive at the moment. Pristina's new status is currently recognized by 41 states. However, the US Department of State allegedly envisages that about 100 countries will recognize Kosovo's independence by the September session of the UN General Assembly. But such a significant upsurge is unlikely during the summer. As a result, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Rosemary Di Carlo has criticized the authorities of the self-proclaimed republic for "insufficient effort in lobbying for recognition of their independence", report the Albanian-speaking media of Kosovo. The US embassy in Pristina denied these allegations but, as they say, there is no smoke without fire.

Against this background, Pristina continues to talk about its plans to accelerate progress towards the EU and NATO on 15 June. What is more, the whole process of European integration has been given no more and no less than three years. That is to say that, by 2010, Kosovo is going to become part of the European Union. On 11 June, an international donor conference will be held in Brussels to examine the plan for Kosovo's transformation into a country with a viable economy by 2011.

These plans are quite ambitious since the economy of the self-proclaimed state is in deep crisis right now. This especially applies to the energy sector. Kosovo is currently one of the poorest regions of Europe; some people survive by subsistence farming. Experts say that the crime rate is very high in the province. According to some estimates, about 60 per cent of the heroin coming to Europe is supplied through Kosovo. And, as we have said, the region has in fact been divided into two parts. The predominantly Serbian-populated north, led by Mitrovica is not obeying either Pristina or the international mission at the moment. Local residents have an especially negative attitude towards the EU mission. One of the Serb leaders in north Kosovska Mitrovica, Milan Ivanovic, has already said that the Serbian enclaves will form their own local government bodies on the basis of the results of municipal elections. They were held at the same time as the parliamentary elections in Serbia.

In any case, this problem will be tackled after 15 June, says the Kosovo government. So the second half of June may be quite "rich" in unpleasant surprises.

The first signs appeared on 6 June, when a group of unknown and armed people attacked the house of Kosovo Prime Minister Hashim Thaci. His wife and son were at home at the time. The prime minister himself was not at home. During a shoot-out with the guard, one of the assailants was wounded, but no-one was caught. Kosovo Deputy Prime Minister Hajredin Kuki described the incident as "a crime that goes beyond the pale of any manifestation of political tolerance" and "an attack on the rule of law in Kosovo where a new constitution will take effect in eight days' time". Literally two days later, a powerful explosion rocked southern Serbia - 200 km south of Belgrade. Unknown people tried to blow up a police jeep. No-one was injured in the terrorist attack.

It must be noted that, after the attack on Thaci's house, various theories were put forward, including one about the involvement in the night-time raid of the prime minister's former companions from the so-called "Kosovo Liberation Army". The media immediately remembered that Kosovo politicians are not getting on well with each other and that the ruling coalition is far from a solid entity. It includes, for example, the party of Ibrahim Rugova, who used to be the prime minister's main political opponent. Nor does Thaci have friendly relations with the former field commander and prime minister of the territory, Ramush Haradinaj, who heads an opposition party in Kosovo after being acquitted recently by the International Tribunal in The Hague.

It is notable that the political situation in Serbia is no better either. Half of the country's residents can not tolerate the loss of part of their territory but, at the same time, they do not want to become hardened radicals who scowl at the whole world, including their own neighbours. Another part lives with memories of their past greatness and wants the return of the Kosovo region at all costs, since they regard Kosovo as the "cradle" of Serbian statehood. Thus the 11 May parliamentary elections in Serbia did not bring victory either to the pro-European politicians or to ultra-radicals. At the same time, Belgrade realizes that no matter how much Russia supports it, the country cannot live in isolation from Europe. Nor can Europe become truly united with a resentful Serbia in its "Balkan underbelly". However, Serbia will remain as such until its territorial integrity is restored…