BLACK REFORMER OR OLD SOLDIER?

The election campaign in the United States has the attention of the entire international community.  In addition to the desire to find out who will replace George Bush, who has managed to make such a mess of things during his presidency, interest is also stirred by the campaign process itself; it has so many peculiarities. Firstly, for the first time in US history, a man over the age of 70 - Republican John McCain, may become tenant of the White House. Secondly, Barack Obama, the winner of the very close Democratic primaries, is the first African-American to be a candidate for the presidency. And thirdly, ex-first lady Hillary Clinton, who finally withdrew from the race only on 7 June, was the first woman to lay claim to the top government post.

As a result, they now face each other, the 71-year-old veteran and hero of the Vietnam war John McCain and the 47-year-old (that's exactly how old he will be on 4 August) Harvard-educated lawyer Barack Obama.

The Obama phenomenon

American politicians, political analysts and journalists, as well as representatives of the general public, admit that as recently as 10 years ago it would have been unimaginable for a person with a dark skin to become one of the two main contenders for the post of president of the country which "presented" the world with the "gift" of the Ku-Klux-Klan and which to this day has some racial problems.

Initially, many people viewed Obama's nomination as a joke which would soon be over. The black senator's claims to the White House seemed particularly weak against the background of New York senator and former first lady Hillary Clinton who, just a few months ago, was considered the favourite. The press described her as the most influential first lady in the history of the United States. The former first lady is a very ambitious woman, competent and well-aware of her significance. Friends stress her energetic sense of purpose. "She knows what she wants and how it can be achieved." She is considered more refined, more reserved and more cautious in her choice of words than her husband, former President Bill Clinton. Those who know Clinton well also point to her wit and sense of humour.

After the official launch of the presidential campaign in autumn 2007, Clinton was one of the best-known candidates for the US presidency and had considerable support among Democrat voters.  With the support of her husband Bill Clinton and a huge advertising campaign, she headed the approval rating polls. Until November 2007, 40% of the left and liberal Democrat voters were willing to vote for her. But the situation changed dramatically when many voters began to suspect that the Clinton family and the entire US Government system was imbued with nepotism and a mafia-like domination by a small circle of the very rich. As a result, the Iowa caucuses expressed a desire for change and new faces in politics. Hillary received only 29% of the Democratic vote, coming third after Edwards (30%) and Obama (38%). After that, the senator decided to soften the carefully selected image of a cold and hard-headed lady for a more relaxed one. This was when America saw her with her daughter. At particularly emotional moments, there were even tears in Hillary's eyes. Nonetheless, as opinion polls suggest, the majority of female voters still preferred Obama (35%), to Clinton (30%).

So what was it that enabled Barack Obama, hardly known until just recently, to beat his main rival in the party?

The majority of analysts cite two main factors in explanation. Firstly, his huge personal charisma and the sense of novelty that he introduced and that the US public had waited so long for. The main slogan of the gifted senator is 'Change we can believe in'. Other factors are his eloquence, appreciated by both friends and rivals, and the ability to reconcile the Democratic and Republican parties for the common good, which he demonstrated during his Senate campaign.

Indeed, as a senator Obama proved to American society, which is quite conservative at heart and yet tired of its own conservatism, that he is a true liberal who is capable of introducing change. His work in the Senate testifies to this. In particular, in 2004 he voted for the continuation of research into stem cells, which is a painful issue for religious Americans. In July 2006, Obama voted against notifying parents if their underage children undergo an abortion procedure. In September 2007, the senator was against a constitutional ban on same-sex marriages (he said that that homosexuality is not a choice but an inborn characteristic). He added that he supported the idea of sex education beginning in kindergarten and the adoption of children over the age of 6 by same-sex couples. One month later, he voted against banning abortion, which is yet another very painful issue for Americans and which has sparked debates for decades.

The Independent wrote that, looking back at the campaign, it is clear that Barack Obama's secret of success is quite simple: he is the most impressive of the candidates. He brought millions and millions of people to vote in the primaries. He charmed literally everyone who attended the rallies. It seemed that he wanted to win more than anyone else. Plus he grew and matured during the campaign, the Independent wrote...

Tough nut to crack

Barack Obama's rival, Republican John McCain is an iconic figure, too: coming from a family with three generations of service in the military, he is a war hero who spent five and a half years in captivity in Vietnam. He fought in Vietnam as an aircraft carrier-based pilot and became a POW when his father was appointed chief commander of the US Pacific Fleet and, accordingly, commander of the US Navy in the Vietnam theatre. McCain did not betray his country during the years of captivity despite all the torture and humiliation. Here is just one episode from his biography. When he was interrogated for military information, after another round of beating, he said that he would name his fellow squadron pilots and gave the Vietnamese a list of Green Bay Packers footballers. In the same period he refused, on principle, to meet the American anti-war activists who used to visit Hanoi to prevent them from being used as a propaganda tool against his country.

In 1981 McCain retired and in 1982 he was elected to the House of Representatives of Congress from the Republican Party. In 1986 he was elected a senator from Arizona and was eventually re-elected three times, in 1992, 1998 and 2004. In 2000 he ran in the presidential election, but lost the primaries to George Bush Jr. He has been main presidential candidate of the Republican Party since February 2008 and is officially supported by George Bush Jr. The incumbent Republican candidate is known for his strong personality. He has always stuck to his opinion on various issues, even if it differed from that of his party. In particular, he is a supporter of the liberalization of immigration law (with some limitations) and of action against global warming - issues on which his opinion is different from that of the conservative majority in his party. In contrast to the majority of his fellow party members, he voted in the Senate against the amendment which banned same-sex marriages and for the federal funding of stem cell research. At the same time his position on a number of keynote issues - abortion, the death penalty and social security - is clearly conservative.

"It's the economy, stupid!"

This campaign has entered a new and most important phase. Now the heated political debates should start. During this phase (from the election of the candidate to his "coronation" at party congress) the main task is to prepare a consistent platform for government. At present, there are several key issues in the lives of Americans and the outcome of the vote will in large part depend on how the candidates propose to deal with them.

First and foremost, the Americans are, of course, interested in the state of the economy - the situation has worsened dramatically under Bush Jr. A large-scale crisis, rising unemployment and falling confidence in the world's leading nation - all this describes what is going on in the United States. The recession has spread into every aspect of American life.

US policy in Iraq and the entire Near East, including regulation of the Palestinian-Israeli question, is also an important issue. The notorious Iranian nuclear dossier remains high on the agenda and any kind of a "showdown" there might bring chaos to the region and lead to much more lamentable consequences than the Iraq campaign. The issue of Russo-US relations is also acute as a new round of confrontation has been unwinding for some time now. The two main rivals for the White House should supply clear-cut and persuasive answers to all these questions and most active voters need to be satisfied by their answers.

However, the main issue for the Americans remains the economy. The Times writes of the famous anecdote when, during the 1992 campaign, someone stuck a sticker to the wall of Bill Clinton's electoral headquarters, saying "It's the economy, stupid!" The note was justified: the candidates tend to drift towards other issues, whereas the voters' primary interest is in the economy. And it is no less pressing now than 16 years ago. We might even add that it is even more pressing than in 1992, given the current realities in the United States, although, naturally, the Iraq crisis and the possibility of a replay in Iran will continue to exert a direct influence upon economic processes in the world. And so will the rest of the political agenda which we listed above.

McCain, as a promoter of the interests of the powerful US military lobby, takes a more radical position than Obama. And as far as relations with Russia are concerned, they might become even more strained than under Bush if he is elected. McCain reacted to a statement by the incumbent US President that he "saw a soul in the eyes of Putin" by rephrasing it and saying that he "saw three letters there, K, G, and B."  In 2003, he said that US policy should "reflect the sobering fact that the Russian government, which does not share our most basic values, cannot be a friend or a partner and, through its behaviour risks putting itself among our enemies." In his opinion, the "creeping putsch against the forces of democracy and market capitalism in Russia is a threat to the foundations of US-Russian relations and creates a ghost in the new era of  'cold peace' between Washington and Moscow."

McCain is for strengthening US military potential, increasing the numerical strength of the US Armed Forces and the deployment of the antimissile defence system. He believes that an effective AMD system "is critical for security against the potential threats emanating from potential strategic rivals like Russia and China."

In 2007, McCain voted for a bill supporting efforts to bring Georgia and Ukraine into NATO.

Obama takes a softer-line. He is for withdrawal of troops from Iraq, normalization of relations with Russia and mutual reduction of nuclear arsenals, but also makes expedient (with an eye on the Jewish lobby) statements that the Americans are ready to counter Iran by all means available in the event of aggression against Israel. He threatened the use of armed force against Pakistani President Musharraf if he does not stop terrorists on his territory. Nonetheless, McCain's aggression is not comparable with the quieter Obama.

Elephants against Donkeys

Hollywood once produced a movie in which a black man became president and beat a white-haired white American in the race. The author of this article memorized an episode from that movie: the prosperous white people in the United States, who had hitherto lived dull lives and never taken part in elections, literally dashed to the ballot boxes to prevent the election of a black man by their vote when they found out that an African-American was leading the presidential race. In the opinion of some analysts, this scenario is not at all out of the question on 4 November 2008.

It is possible that many white people who were previously passive voters will be pushed to the ballot boxes precisely by this factor, and it might even become a decisive factor during the counting of votes. We should bear in mind that blacks constitute just over 10% of the US population, especially as Obama has never positioned himself as a representative of that section of society and has stayed clear of race-related issues. He has never been affiliated to any movement for the rights of African-Americans. The press has even unearthed information from somewhere that Obama's maternal ancestors were slave-owners.

He will still be reminded many times of his father, a Kenyan Muslim: you can easily find retouched caricatures on the internet in which Usama Bin Ladin has Barack Obama's face.

In addition, Obama and Clinton have effectively split the Democratic Party in two. Let us not forget that Obama effectively snatched victory in the primaries only at the very end of the race and failed to secure a convincing lead. That is why it is quite likely that the heat of battle, which Clinton's supporters still feel in their blood, might play a cruel joke on him. There were rumours that she will be nominated for vice president, but this is hard to believe: she is too ambitious and such a tandem somehow does not tally in the minds of Americans.

McCain has his weaknesses too. His affiliation to the Republican Party, which has accumulated so many negatives up to now, might be enough: voters remember very well the powerful economic growth under Democratic President Clinton and the decline after the election of George Bush. And no one knows whether or not Bush would have been re-elected for a second term if the war against terror, which started when memories of September 11 were still fresh, had not been under way at full speed at that time. McCain will certainly not be able to disclaim the Republicans' current image. Apparently, the fact that the candidate for the Elephants (symbol of the Republican Party) does not miss an opportunity to stab at George Bush and openly displays his disagreement with the president's policy on many issues has precisely this cause. Be that as it may, McCain does need the support of his party and the military-industrial lobby, which means that he will have to bear his cross and remain a hawk.

However, the Democratic Party's victory in the latest congressional elections does not inspire much optimism. It was just an indicator that Americans are tired of the predatory policies of the "feathered elephants" [a pun on hawks and elephants], preferring to load the burden of their problems onto the back of the hard-working donkey, which is the symbol of the Democratic Party...

For now, it is hard to say whom the voters will prefer - the relatively young black reformer or the wise and experienced old soldier. It is impossible to predict. The debates will make many things clear: he who sounds more persuasive and gains sympathy will win. After all, the candidates will now have to address not just their own party members, but the whole American nation with its entire range of internal controversies and expectations.

In addition, journalists will almost certainly try to pull as many "skeletons" from both candidates' closets as possible. And much will depend on that, too. But most importantly, we should not forget about the so called administrative resources. Sharp tongues say that they helped Bush get re-elected by rigging the recount procedure. Is the same thing possible again?

At any rate, this election race has already gone down in history for its extraordinary features.

But as ever, there's more to come...