ZONE OF TURBULENCE

In December 1991, the three Slavic republics - Russia, Ukraine and Belarus - signed the Belovezha Accords and formalized the civilized breakup of the USSR. But the post-Soviet period of Moscow's relations with Kiev and Minsk showed that the civilized divorce did not become a sufficient basis for civilized neighbourliness. The numerous energy and trade wars between Russia, Ukraine and Belarus severely put relations between the countries to the severe test.

And with the launch of the EU's Eastern Partnership programme, which provides for the European integration of six post-Soviet countries, including Ukraine and Belarus, the relationship almost got into a zone of turbulence.

Moscow believes that projects for the deepening of integration processes in the CIS area are the very platform on the basis of which you can register a new civilized marriage between the former Soviet countries. And since the very beginning Russia has made no secret that cooperation between the three Slavic countries, which once signed the agreement on the dissolution of the Soviet Union, could be an example of the successful implementation of these plans.

Belarus, which is under constant pressure from Brussels, responded to Moscow's offer, entered the Customs Union and supported the idea of a Eurasian Union. But Ukraine, which is conducting a pro-Western foreign policy, behaved more obstinately, although after the election of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and the conclusion of the Kharkov agreements in April 2010, it proved possible to improve Russian-Ukrainian relations to some extent. However, subsequent events showed that Kiev is not going to end its European integration policy in favour of Moscow's initiatives. In the course of numerous meetings and negotiations with the political leadership of Russia on accession to the Customs Union, the Ukrainian authorities expressed willingness to cooperate only in the 3+1 format, i.e. as an observer with a deliberative vote in the Customs Union. In April of this year, Kiev even sent a corresponding letter to the members of the Customs Union. But Ukraine's intention to sign the Association Agreement and the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Zone Agreement (DCFTA) with the EU within the framework of the Vilnius summit of Eastern Partnership is hardly in the interests of Moscow. This is evidenced by the statement Russian President Vladimir Putin made immediately after Kiev's written appeal to the members of the EU: "Some sectors of the economy of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine are in deep cooperation. Rejection of it will entail irreparable losses. If Russia is still able to somehow make up for them, for Ukraine it will be extremely difficult. In some sectors of the economy, I am afraid, this may lead to de-industrialization. Ukrainian experts themselves believe that if they join the Customs Union, the economic benefit of Ukraine will be calculated in several percentage points with regard to GDP. According to our estimates - it is an extra 9-10 billion dollars." However, Kiev made it clear that the hypothetical economic benefits of membership in the Customs Union are less important for it than the political and economic benefits Ukraine will gain from cooperation with the EU.

After that, in late July, the Federal Consumer Control Service imposed a ban on the supply of products of the Ukrainian confectionery company Roshen to Russia, stating that they "do not meet the necessary parameters" because "the requirements for quality and safety were violated" during its production. On 14 August, the Customs Service of Russia included all Ukrainian importers without exception on the list of "risky" ones, which blocked the delivery of goods from Ukraine virtually indefinitely. Experts of the Federation of Employers of Ukraine (FEU) estimate that the losses of their country from these actions could amount to $ 2-2.5 billion by the end of this year.

The talks between Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov and his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev in early September in Moscow did not lead to positive results. According to analysts, dealing a blow to the largest Ukrainian producers exporting their products to Russia, Moscow intends to demand that the Ukrainian leadership give up the association with the EU in favour of the Customs Union.

It is noteworthy that Moscow sometimes makes diametrically opposed statements on the foreign policy of Kiev, which allows most analysts to talk about the political background of the Russian- Ukrainian trade war. Russian President Vladimir Putin, warning Kiev about economic difficulties, has also repeatedly expressed respect for the choice of Ukraine. According to him, no matter what happens and where Ukraine goes, Russia and Ukraine will still meet sometime and somewhere, because the Russians and Ukrainians are one people. But the rhetoric of Putin's adviser Glazyev sounds harsher: "The increased inspection of goods on the Russian-Ukrainian border, which took place in mid-August and resulted in difficulties, is a one-off action, but if Ukraine signs the Association Agreement with the EU, customs administration may be tightened." According to him, this document means a "catastrophe" for Kiev and is a blow to Moscow. That is to say Russia will make every effort to thwart the signing of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU scheduled for November.

In turn, Brussels defended Ukraine. European Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy Stefan Fule said that the EU believes that Russian pressure on Ukraine in order to prevent the signing of the Association Agreement between Kiev and Brussels is unacceptable. The softening of the position of Brussels, which linked the signing of the Association Agreement with Ukraine on the release of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, likely became an unpleasant surprise for Moscow.

In addition, it was announced that from next year, Russia refuses to use the Ukrainian testing ground Nitka, where pilots of the only remaining Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov trained. And from 2015, Kiev intends to reduce the amount of gas purchased from Russia to 10 billion cubic metres a year.

On the other hand, relations between Russia and Belarus have significantly deteriorated. The reason is the severance of relations between two giants on the potassium market - Uralkaliy and Belaruskaliy, which sold their products jointly through the Belarusian Potassium Company (BPC). The initiator of the rupture was Uralkaliy. This step caused the potassium market to collapse and significantly reduced the quotations of its major manufacturers.

In response to this, after talks with the chairman of the Council of Ministers of Belarus, M. Myasnikovich, Uralkaliy CEO (also chairman of the Supervisory Board of the BPC) V. Baumgertner was arrested in Minsk. The Belarusian authorities announced their intention to seize the assets of Uralkaliy in Belarus and abroad, as well as got the Interpol to issue arrest warrants for four other managers of the company. A blow to the image of Moscow could be the fact that one of the shareholders of the company, Russian senator and billionaire Suleyman Kerimov, was put on the international wanted list. Uralkaliy managers are accused of damaging the Belarusian state and attempting to seize the state-owned Soligorsk potassium plant. According to the Belarusian side, the representatives of Uralkaliy deliberately harmed both the joint sales company and the partner of the BPC - the Belarusian state-run company Belaruskaliy, inflicting damage worth $ 100 million to the country, which Minsk intends to recover from the culprits.

Moscow's response was not long in coming. Following the talks in Moscow between Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkadiy Dvorkovich and the First Deputy Prime Minister of Belarus Vladimir Semashko, it became known that Minsk will not receive 4.5 million tons of the planned 23 million tons of oil this year. The Russian side also complained about the quality of Belarusian dairy products supplied to the Russian market.

All these mentioned facts show that political and economic differences are a major barrier to the successful implementation of the integration processes in the post-Soviet area, which even brotherly Slavic nations cannot eliminate.