NO END IN SIGHT

The topic of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict never comes off the agenda in Azerbaijan and the region. However, lately there have been few newsworthy reasons to report about it. After the negotiations within the OSCE Minsk Group once more ended up in a deep stalemate, a long pause began in settlement process. Weak attempts by the Minsk Group co-chairs to resume the dialogue at least at the level of foreign ministers of the sides to the conflict have so far not succeeded. The domestic political situation in both Armenia and Azerbaijan facilitated these as the countries prepare for presidential elections. As for the major powers, their attention was fixed on overcoming crisis symptoms in the global economy and finance, as well as on explosive developments taking place in Syria and Egypt. As a result, the potentially explosive Armenian-Azerbaijani, Nagornyy Karabakh conflict was temporarily pushed to the sidelines of the international and regional politics.
 It is obvious that Baku cannot put up with the existing situation and actively pushes the matter of Karabakh settlement during bilateral talks with the leaders of countries-partners of Azerbaijan, as well as through the mobilization of support in the parliaments of friendly countries and in international organizations. Through the efforts of Azerbaijani diplomats and diasporas the parliaments of Mexico, Columbia, Pakistan, the Czech Republic, Romania, Hungary, Germany, Italy, a number of states in the USA, as well as the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation passed resolutions condemning the genocide committed by Armenians in Xocali and calls to put an end to the ongoing occupation by the Armenian forces of Azerbaijani territories. In parallels, efforts are made to increase the military readiness of the Azerbaijani army, which received and demonstrated at a parade this summer new military hardware, including powerful and long-range rocket launchers, military aircraft, helicopters and air defence systems, modern tanks and armoured personnel carriers.  
For their parts Armenians lured to Nagornyy Karabakh, sometimes through deception, foreign MPs, journalists and well-known musicians and writers in an attempt to create the illusion of international recognition of the separatist regime. The Armenian media disseminate implausible or downright nonsensical ideas about the possible deployment of Russian troops in Nagornyy Karabakh or using the Xocali airport, which has been restored but banned from being operated by Azerbaijan, as an air military base (!?) of the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization).
Serzh Sargsyan tried once more to push through the topic of opening this airport during the October summit of the CSTO in Sochi. However, as Armenian sources say, Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoygu advised his Armenian colleagues not to press the matter. Serzh Sargsyan's criticism against his counterparts and presidents of the CSTO countries that many of them support both on the bilateral basis and on various international forums the position of Azerbaijan, rather than that of ally Armenia, hung in the air, or more precisely were ignored by silence.
Armenia's financial and economic difficulties assumed a chronic character and now this now the trouble begins to appear in the much-vaunted military. Contrary to feel-good statements about the ability of the Armenian armed forces to confront Azerbaijan, in reality this is not so. Yerevan does hide the fact that on this matter they now vest more hopes in Russian security guarantees. It was enough to Russian President Vladimir Putin to hint to Serzh Sargsyan that in the case of signing an association agreement with the European Union Armenians will lose the support of Moscow, for the latter to immediately announce his readiness to join the Customs Union, and further integrate the country into the Eurasian Union format promoted by Russia
It is clear that this hasty decision disappointed EU members and strengthened doubts about Yerevan's capacity to make important foreign policy decisions in a sovereign fashion. In general, after the declaration about Armenia's readiness to enter the Customs Union the international positions of Armenia and its incumbent leadership weakened, rather than strengthened. The Yerevan-based newspaper Zhokhovurd recently wrote: "Although Armenia did change the vector of its foreign policy and is rapidly moving towards Russia and the Customs Union, no warms can be seen in relations between Vladimir Putin and Serzh Sargsyan, not even for the public display. During the ceremony of opening an Armenian church in Moscow Putin and Sargsyan never got to meet. Putin did not even attend the event. It transpired that they also did not meet during the CSTO's council session in Sochi, although Vladimir Putin back then had private conversations with Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev and Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenka. It is interesting, why does Putin avoid Sargsyan?". The question to this answer lies on the surface. The leader of the country dubbed either an "outpost" or "exclave" of Russia, caught in an intention to play a double game (with Moscow and Brussels at the same time), hardly deserves any other treatment.
The calculation that in exchange for ostensible expression of loyalty Russia will subsidize Armenia by handing over in large quantities and freely weapons (part of which can be tacitly sold to dubious "customers") and most importantly, will resolve the Karabakh conflict in the interests of Armenians is an illusion. As the head of the Committee for External Relations of the European Parliament, Elmar Brok, said at a meeting with a group of journalists from the "Eastern Partnership" in late September: "Moscow exploits 'frozen conflicts' to realize its interests in this or that region. The realization of its own interests, rather than resolving conflicts is Russia's priority, as is the case in Dniester and Nagornyy Karabakh". According to him, Yerevan was practically forced to enter the Customs Union with Russia. "We respect the country's choice, but only if this is a free choice. Armenia's decision was dictated by the condition set before Yerevan, whereby they would lose Karabakh if they signed an associate agreement with the European Union," Brok said.
The only current positive development in the context of the Karabakh conflict was the appointment of an experienced and respected diplomat, James Warlick, as US co-chair of the Minsk Group of OSCE. Despite the holiday period, James Warlick promptly paid the region a familiarization visit. US President Barack Obama on this occasion sent a letter to Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan. The US leader reiterated "... strong and unequivocal U.S. commitment to promoting the achievement by parties of a peace settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict." President Obama described the current situation in the negotiations as hopeless and called for the resumption of direct dialogue at the highest level in the coming months.
Time will show if the appointment of the new American co-chair and address by President Obama will signify Washington's readiness for more active involvement in peaceful settlement of the Karabakh conflict. Of late the USA has not displayed such interests and after Matthew Bryza left the post the American co-chairs of the Minsk Group remained in the shadow of not just their Russian, but even French counterparts.
As for the high-level meetings, on the sidelines of the session of the UN General Assembly in New York, the co-chairs of the Minsk Group met with the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia.
The OSCE statement said that the foreign ministers of the two countries reaffirmed their commitment to continue working with the co-chairs to achieve a peaceful settlement of the conflict.
The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk plan to visit the region to discuss high-level meetings planned for this year with the presidents of the two countries.
It is also expected that in the course of the Vilnius summit of heads of state from members of the European Union and the Eastern Partnership at the end of November, the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia may have a meeting and talks at the initiative and with the participation of EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton.
However, when despite his previous assurances Serzh Sargsyan instead of deepened partnership with the European Union announced joining the Russian-led Customs Union in the eyes of Europeans his capability for reaching agreements rapidly decreased. Armenians are finding it increasingly difficult to juxtapose their own "democracy" and "commitment to human rights" to "authoritarianism" in Azerbaijan and speculate with this. In the West, especially among MPs and mass media, there are many Armenian lobbyists who promote and speculate on such juxtaposition. However, one unbiased look at the "criminal  kingdom", built in Armenia through the efforts of Robert Kocharyan and his successor Serzh Sargsyan, is enough to see that it is hardly up to democratic and legal standards. The best case in point is the poor Armenian population who demonstrate their genuine attitude to the regime in Yerevan by leaving the country in hundreds of thousands in all directions. Over the past five years almost 250,000 Armenians emigrated. The preliminary reports for this year show that the process is only gaining acceleration and turning into an exodus. No financial inducement, whether from Brussels or Moscow, are capable of drastically changing for the better the economic and social situation in Armenia. Only after giving up on territorial claims to neighbours and establishing peaceful relations with them can Armenia find a way out of the deadlock that it chased itself in.
"Azerbaijan is ready to direct its high economic potential towards the development of the entire region. The withdrawal of Armenian armed forces from the occupied Azerbaijani territories benefits Armenia itself. This will create conditions for Armenia to reap benefits from Azerbaijan's greater economic potential. Furthermore, this will pave the path for development programmes for Nagornyy Karabakh and make the attraction of real investments possible. We treat Armenians who live in Nagornyy Karabakh as our citizens and wish for them the best living conditions," says a report by Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov published in the Azarbaycan newspaper. "Today the strategic balance in the region undoubtedly favours Azerbaijan. As a result, strategically speaking Armenia, which has conducted a policy of aggression against Azerbaijan, has failed. As time passes this strategic defeat will manifest itself more clearly," the minister pointed out. The foreign minister then proceeded to pinpoint the reason for the ongoing deadlock in the talks: "Feeling impunity from the international community Armenia is sure that it will continue to be able to maintain under occupation our lands and will subsequently obtain new possibilities to claim other Azerbaijani territories".
Azerbaijan's position is based on the solid ground of international law, supported by the growing economic and military potential, active diplomacy. Attempts to impose solutions that are not compatible with the national sovereignty of Azerbaijan, have failed before and hopes for this have grown even less realistic now, now that we have become immeasurably stronger. The sooner the Armenians and their supporters understand this, the more quickly will the way for the resumption of peace and cooperation in the region clear.