PREDICTABLE SUCCESS

The Bundestag elections did not bring surprises, but nonetheless, still managed to surprise many and, without exaggeration, attracted wide attention from the international community. The people of Germany were given a more than generous opportunity to determine favourites - 34 parties. But victory came to those who have spent more than one year in office.
CDU/CSU, which includes the two largest parties adhering to the Christian social and liberal-conservative values, gained 41.5 % of the vote, thus showing the best result in the last two decades. CDU/CSU is no stranger to remaining in power - individually or as part of a coalition. This has been the case almost continuously since 1949, except for the 1970's and early 2000's. Thus, in the 18th convocation of Bundestag the block gets 311 seats out of 630. But Angela Merkel, whom the European media referred to as the victor, remains the chancellor for the third term, and by the end of her tenure will have stayed at the post for 12 years.
The one who suffered a crushing defeat is the Free Democratic Party (FDP), which in the previous parliament was part of the ruling coalition of black and yellow. The party won only 4.8 % of the vote, even after failing to overcome the five per cent barrier. This means that for the first time since the founding of West Germany in 1949, the FDP will not be represented in parliament. Party leaders have already indicated their intention to resign, dissolve and re- elect all officers. However, perhaps the party's failure speaks not only about the failed policies of its leadership, but also about the raised level of global scepticism towards liberal values. Tolerance, multiculturalism, as well as many formulas of liberal democracy have not lost their value, but clearly require rethinking.  
The leading opposition force in the country - the SPD (Social Democratic Party of Germany), which aspires to build in the Federal Republic of Germany "democratic socialism" and create an atmosphere of social solidarity, won 25.7 % of votes (192 mandates) . But the result is not very encouraging for Per Steinbrueck, the chancellor candidate of the Social Democrats, who expected higher numbers. So far the party is not in a position to compete with CDU/CSU and clearly is unable to claim the role of representing the people.
The Left Party, which, in fact, is the successor to the former East Germany's ruling Socialist Unity Party of Germany (SED), gained 8.6% and won 64 seats in parliament.
The Greens, who preach renunciation of nuclear energy and the development of environmentally friendly ways to produce energy, the prohibition of genetic and biotechnology, as well as a number of left-wing ideas, such as higher taxes for the rich, more government regulation and so on, have achieved similar results - 8.4% and 63 seats in parliament.
Thus, if the election campaign in Germany was pretty bleak, negotiations on forming a coalition are expected to be more colourful. Or, at least, more difficult and apparently quite prolonged. The country is likely to expect a "grand coalition": CDU/CSU and the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), which has already happened twice - in 1966 and 2005. At the very least, the CSU has said they refused to ally with Greens. As for Merkel, from her statements it can be understood that she is not against a coalition with the SPD, although, of course, she believes that "the activities of the Christian-Liberal Union were more successful". But what is done is done.  
In general, according to many observers, the secret to the success of the CDU/CSU is that the unit headed by the current chancellor was able to absorb and apply in practice both liberal and social-democratic ideas. It is not afraid to speak and make decisions, even on difficult issues, such as minimum wages, gender quotas in hiring and same-sex marriages. CDU/CSU swallowed, digested and passed back as their product even the idea of the Greens on the closure of nuclear power plants. Somebody might argue that, in fact, the differences between the parties are pretty minor, so that at times one can only wonder how the voters decide. But maybe this is the secret of the current stability? After all, the current economic steadfastness of Germany in the middle of a storm is widely recognized as the result of the efforts made by another chancellor, Gerhard Schroeder, and the Social Democrats in 2003. These reforms - cutting social programs for citizens, reducing the cost of health care, pensions, etc. were painful and ultimately cost the Democrats and Schrцder government. Dare Christian Democrats do now that Schroeder did then? Merkel herself seems to be well aware of the answer to this question. The chancellor is, of course, a controversial and powerful politician, but she is not such by herself, despite the circumstances and opposing external and internal factors. Rather, she is this way because she has the opportunity to be so - a well-prepared ground for success and unrushed work. And this is different.
But for better or worse, the success of Merkel's party openly correlates with the stable economic situation in Germany, which has been able to cruise through the crisis years and whose economy has not only kept steadily, but even continues to grow in these challenging times. Now the country has Europe's lowest unemployment rate and a relatively small size of the national debt. At the same time, the Germans did not have to sacrifice their usual social benefits, unlike for example what the same people of Greece have to do. Therefore, the citizens of Germany rightly judged that "horses should not be changed in midstream" and actively went to the polls. The turnout was quite high - 73%.
What the German elections have also identified, as if through a magnifying glass, was the significant role Germany plays in Europe. Indeed, immediately after the announcement of the election results, some media dubbed Merkel almost an "empress of all of Europe" and the European Union as made in the "German Reich". Perhaps Europe, which for the last few years experienced an economic and systemic crisis, now could really do with a fraction of the famous German pragmatism. "The main thing is for it to remain a faction," add some vociferously and some in whispers...
Of course, Berlin's success is partly due to the bizarre political calm and weakness of France in recent years, and the fact that the UK is committed to disentangling from European affairs as much as possible. But the most important factor though is still that Berlin took over the mission of steering the EU out of the crisis.
However, the presence of a leader in the union which was originally conceived as a union of equal states in and of itself makes one cautious. And finally, what would happen if the German economy also required sacrifices to maintain its stability? What will happen to the leadership of Germany in this case? Germany could dictate when the EU decides how to save and even whether or not to save Greece, but what can Berlin offer to steer the union out of the same systemic crisis? And does Germany with their lead push the united Europe in an even greater crisis? Merkel is likely to support the idea that economic and financial issues need to be addressed by a group of powerful countries, rather than by Brussels... The crisis has shown that the economy is more important than any political factors. We are talking about the European economy, but the election is surely still national.
Of course, much will depend on Merkel herself. She seems sensible, calm and accustomed to achieving goals. She is not the image of a new "Iron Lady". She is different, without any strain, at least in public. She is not only willing to pay for everybody, but also not willing to crush opponents along the way - she is not a revolutionary and does not break the foundations. Merkel, as a cost-conscious housewife in the kitchen, is ready to learn from the best recipes from those who have tastier and more economical lunches, but she also does not expel those who today were not so lucky. She carries responsibility for everything, but it is not always clear what specifically. She ponders for a long time, but does not waver any more after this deliberation. Therefore, it will be very interesting to see how Merkel will invest her current success in the European project and international influence.