The economic crisis, which swept a number of the G20 countries following the increase in oil prices and the devaluation of national currencies, has forced governments to review their development policy for the next few years. However, along with the alarming forecasts about the prospects of an increase in interest rates in the US and their consequences, statements are beginning to be made about turning the crisis into new opportunities for business and financial-credit institutions. These were the sentiments that prevailed at discussion panels in the context of the meetings of representatives of the G20's financial-economic bloc. It is worth noting that a delegation from Azerbaijan, including Finance Minister Samir Sarifov and Minister of Labour and Social Protection Salim Muslimov, also attended the forum as guests.

China's "competitive devaluation"

The head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, said that the main difficulty today is the moderate and uneven rate of growth of the world economy. In her statement at the end of the meeting of the heads of the financial departments and central banks of the G20 in Ankara, she called for "a concerted policy effort to address these challenges". In particular, she said, we are talking about an accommodative monetary policy in the developed countries, measures to strengthen the budget and structural reforms to boost potential output and productivity.

The head of the IMF did not specify whether the expected decision of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) on an increase in interest rates related to these measures. However, many analysts believe that that this will be an additional burden on many countries that have already experienced economic crises. The media claim that at the September meeting the FRS could for the first time in 9 years raise borrowing costs. Against this background analytical agencies are dampening the short-term outlook for the development of the economies of China, India, Brazil and other countries.

The G20 communique say that "in line with the improvement in the economic outlook, a tightening of the monetary policy in some developed countries is becoming more likely and remains one of the main sources of uncertainty on the financial markets".

However, the US' representative pointed to the need to prevent the "competitive devaluation" undertaken by a number of countries to support local manufacturers. "This relates to both political decisions and unequivocal statements that provoke a deliberate fall in the national currency," the US official said. This was a clear pointer to the decision of the People's Bank of China (PBC) on the biggest devaluation of the yuan in two decades, with the reference rate of the Central Bank being reduced by 1.9 per cent.

It should be noted that Christine Lagarde said before the meeting of G20 finance ministers in Ankara that the reduction in the rate of growth of the Chinese economy would have more serious consequences than expected. The short-term risks for the developing economies have increased, which is leading to a further slowing down in growth in China, a reduction in the prices of raw materials and an increase in the exchange rate of the dollar. The outlook will be even worse if some of these risks materialize at the same time, the IMF points out. Nevertheless, the fund is predicting that economic activity in countries with a developed economy will increase moderately this year and next, mainly due to the fall in oil prices.

At the same time, the deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, Yi Gang, said that the Chinese economy is stable, despite the recent slump on the stock market, and will even show a growth of 7 per cent this year. "The basic factors for the Chinese economy are fairly strong," he said. "Of course, no-one can give precise forecasts when the market is volatile, but I am confident that the course of the yuan will be more or less stable."

After the meeting, US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew and Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei were the first at the economic summit in Ankara to say that China, by all accounts, has recognized the need to make their monetary policy more transparent following the tension on the stock market.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said the same. "Our Chinese colleagues made it clear that they are firmly committed to carrying out ambitious reforms and will be preparing new changes," he told journalists at a briefing in the Turkish capital. He said the participants in the summit - finance ministers and heads of central banks - felt afterwards that there was no need to get nervous.

Focus on small and medium-size business

Even in conditions of a crisis new possibilities for development can be sought.  This kind of optimistic view was voiced, among others, by the Turkish President [Recep] Tayyip Erdogan. "The G20 can turn a crisis into opportunities, and after this we must, first and foremost, overcome the increase in economic inequality, particularly in relation to women," Erdogan said at the opening of a forum of businessmen as part of the G20 in Ankara. He said that Turkey is a successful example of integration with the world economy and between countries with developing economies.

However, in order to embark on a path of development, the G20 countries must eliminate a large number of economic barriers in the way of the development of foreign trade. According to the President of the Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey, Rifat Hisarciklioglu, when countries start to build barriers they themselves cannot sell their output abroad. The result has been unemployment and, specifically, 200 million people in the world were without work this year. "The development of small and medium-size business will lead to an increase in the competitiveness of countries. We should ensure access of small and medium-size businesses to financial institutions. This is quite a serious problem because the financing of trade has slumped by 2 trillion dollars and banks have turned down one project in two," the Secretary General of the International Chamber of Trade, John Danilovic, also believes. By the way, the Vice President of the Turkish Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges, Ender Yorgancilar, said that Turkey is proposing to set up an international body to deal with support for small and medium-size businesses.

"We are aiming not just to increase the amount of investments, but also to improve their quality. We have drawn up measures to reduce the barriers facing private investors and to develop investment strategies. The financial "20" also came to a unanimous opinion about the need to create a favourable climate for the development of small and medium-size businesses," Turkey's Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz said.

The summit also heard an appeal to each country of the "20" to make efforts to ensure economic growth of 2 per cent before the end of 2018. "We can now see that a third of the countries have already coped with this task. This shows that we are on the right path, but there is still a lot of work to be done," Cevdet Yilmaz said, not without optimism.

Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu urged the leaders of the G20 countries to conduct a single and coordinated policy in relation to the global economic crisis. "We must draw lessons from previous crises, starting with the crisis of 1929. It was with this in mind that that a decision was taken to create a B20 mechanism. Each country is striving to resolve its problems single-handedly, but an isolationist policy will not lead to success in this situation. The world's politicians must get together and draw up common approaches to overcoming the consequences of the crisis," Davutoglu said, speaking at the B20 forum (the business circles of the G20 countries). 

This notion was also reflected in the final communiqu? of the G20."We reiterate our commitment to move toward more market-determined exchange rate systems and exchange rate flexibility to reflect underlying fundamentals, and avoid persistent exchange rate misalignments," the document states.

The heads of the financial departments of the leading countries also agreed to take decisive action on the path to economic recovery and are confident that it will gain speed. In this connection, G20 intends to prevent developing risks on the financial markets that are subject to volatility and to increase investors' confidence.

Another important aspect that was included in the final edition of the communiqu? was joint action in the struggle against the funding of terrorism. Specifically, it emphasizes the need to freeze all assets linked with terrorism and to strengthen the information exchange system. Attention was also drawn to the importance of sanctions against the funding of terrorism.

Thus, the meeting in Ankara defined the main contours of overcoming the crisis and economic development in the world for the near future. And the main thing that the ministers agreed upon was the need to speed up the rate of growth of the economy and to jointly prevent risks on global financial markets. The important thing is that this same determination should also be maintained during the practical implementation of these agreements.