RACE WITHOUT A LEADER

A new political season is beginning in Armenia. The most logical thing is to count from 15 September when the autumn session of parliament started. The MPs are to examine a draft constitutional reform, on the basis of which Armenia will turn from a presidential republic into a parliamentary one. The deputies will have to give the nod to the holding of a referendum on the draft constitutional reforms initiated by Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan. If the proposed changes are backed by the majority of deputies, the bill will be put to a popular referendum within two months. The authorities expect that these changes will be adopted in the next four-day period (5-8 October), and the referendum itself will be held before the end of November.

The opposition, as might be expected, is against it. Even before the discussion, the leader of the faction of the Armenian National Congress (ANC), Levon Zurabyan, said that the ANC is not only against the package of proposed reforms, but also against its inclusion in the agenda of discussions. According to him, the adoption of constitutional reforms is of great importance for the country, and before the referendum, they must be presented to the population in detail, including through a live broadcast from the session of parliament, so that the public can learn more about the positions of political forces. It proved impossible to get the question of broadcasts off the ground.

For his part, the MP from the opposition Heritage faction, Zaruhi Postanjyan, said that the discussion was illegal and noted that the bill cannot be discussed in the absence of the author - Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan. In response to such remarks, Speaker Galust Sahakyan asked her to get acquainted with the rules of parliament, according to which the president's representative may speak on his behalf, especially as it was the initiative of several political forces. Thus, despite the resistance of the opposition, the issue was still included on the agenda by 104 votes "for", 15 "against" and 4 abstentions.

For the Armenian opposition, many believe, the subject of constitutional reform is not important in itself - in this discussion, they see, among other things, also a convenient excuse for a tough confrontation with the ruling group. In any case, the ANC has already proposed to turn the referendum on the constitution into a referendum against the government while the political forces that participate in the discussion of the draft reforms are called "Yes clients" and "clients of Bagramyan 26" (the address of the presidential administration of Armenia). In the issue of countering constitutional changes, the ANC expects sympathy from the "street". Recently, the No front, which opposes the draft amendments to the Constitution, adopted a declaration. The authors of the document stressed that the problems existing in Armenia are due to failure to comply with constitutional norms rather than imperfections in the current constitution. "Signatories" - about three dozen of forces, including the initiative You will not hold it!, the Armenian National Congress, Heritage, Founding Parliament and others - have set themselves the task of stopping the process of constitutional reforms in the country. "To achieve this goal, we are forming the No front, initiating nationwide opposition and calling for citizens and socio-political units in Armenia to join the fight," the document says.

The Founding Parliament went even further as its chairman Garegin Chukaszyan said that since the current system of government is unconstitutional and authoritarian, in such circumstances, the discussion of a particular form of government makes no sense. Considering the proposed reforms to be "adventurous surgical interference in the foundations of statehood", Chukaszyan urged everyone to unite and not to allow them to be adopted. "We need to form a coalition and demand the resignation of the leader of the gang that has seized power," he said. Meanwhile, the Founding Parliament, we recall, includes professional terrorists with Middle Eastern experience and former "field commanders".

It is obvious that calling for mass protests, the opposition can create if not a threat, then, in any case, a serious headache for the authorities in Armenia. The socioeconomic situation in the country continues to deteriorate. In terms of per capita GDP, Armenia takes 115th place in the world. The share of industrial production in GDP has fallen from 40 to 20 per cent, and high-tech products are mostly eliminated. Former industrial giants - the Nairit factory and Vanadzor-Khimprom - stand no hope of rehabilitation. And all of this together causes that same "protest electorate", on which the opposition could rely, to grow in Armenia.

But not everything is so simple, analysts warn. And some hefty food for thought here is provided by the recent developments in Armenia - another crackdown on another "electromaidan".

It would seem that the issue of protests against the rise in energy tariffs has been resolved: the authorities promised to conduct an audit of the Electric Networks of Armenia and not to raise prices before that. But then the decision came into force, the audit has not yet begun, and the protest spilled out into the streets again. However, it was immediately and quite toughly suppressed by the police.

Probably, it makes little sense to ask rhetorical questions as to why this time, in contrast to the events in Azerbaijan, the international human rights community is in no way concerned about the proportionality of the use of force by the police and the right to freedom of assembly. Another thing is more important. The protest against the increase in electricity tariffs was "independent from parties" from the very beginning. The leaders of "parliamentary" parties operating in Armenia failed to take control of the wave of social protest. But whether it is an excuse for the authorities to calm down is an open question. The "Electromaidan" left no doubt: the social protest in Armenia continues to grow, and the authority of the government is falling. Against this background, "the race without a leader" on the streets of Yerevan cannot last forever. And there are enough contenders for the role of the leader, including very radical ones.