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ENCRYPTED SIGNS OF G20

The Big Twenty Summit signals about expected surprises in world politics

Author:

15.09.2016

The 11th summit of the Big Twenty (G20), an informal association of major industrialized and developing countries producing 85% of world GDP, 75% of world trade encompassing the two-thirds of the world population, was held in the Chinese city of Hangzhou on September 4-5. The Chinese President Xi Jinping said that the G20 summit ended with great success. The signatories of the final communiqué agreed to develop a package of measures aimed at ensuring the growth of the world economy, condemned the terrorism and pledged to use all possible means to fight against financing of terrorism.

 

From economics to politics

The summit’s agenda was quite extensive: “The construction of innovative, healthy, coherent and inclusive global economy”. However, the economic issues, as always, have been touched in general terms. One could heard repeated phrases about the need to support the global growth and stability of financial markets, the importance of compliance with the principles of free trade, and fighting protectionism. It was important to answer the question on how to reach a consensus on these issues, but it was never formulated. Not surprisingly, China set the pace of the agenda in Hangzhou, as the host of the summit and the second economy in the world, which is now the largest contributor to global economic growth. Beijing has spoken against the establishment of “interest groups” in the global economy, and has supported the structural reforms aimed at building a community with a common destiny (inclusive economy), where G20 would act as a common management platform. In addition, the world leaders have expressed fears about the intensified distrust of globalization throughout the world.

Initially, the idea behind the format of Big Twenty was to seek for solutions to global economic problems occurred back in the times of the financial crisis of late 90s in the Asian countries. G20 was popular again in 2008, when a new crisis broke out. After 10 years, a new trend emerged - the summit became more political since the Big Seven can no longer reflect the geopolitical realities of the present, and the UN General Assembly is too large, formal, and declarative, to say the least. Therefore, the main advantage of the Big Twenty is not only to make economic problems possible for joint brainstorming but also to use every opportunity to arrange meetings of the world leaders even on the margins of the summit and even those who have certain difficulties. Should the organization of official visit, for whatever reasons, is not possible, the leaders can still talk in the backstage of G20, which is the most convenient place to do this without any harm to image of any of the parties while, at the same time, leaves room for flexible agenda, if something goes wrong.

Statistically, the last G20 summit in Hangzhou will be remembered by a number of bilateral meetings, which had never been recorded before. The principal meetings include the negotiations between Obama and Putin, Merkel and Erdogan, Putin and Xi Jinping, Merkel and Obama, Obama and May, Obama and Erdogan, Putin and Erdogan, Abe and Xi Jinping.

 

Focal point: Syria

A meeting, most likely the last one, between the Russian and US presidents, Vladimir Putin and Barack Obama, which lasted nearly one and half hour, has drawn particular attention. The details of this meeting have not been disclosed publicly. The press had only the comments of presidents. At a press conference, Barack Obama said that the parties “have achieved some progress” on the issue of ceasefire in Syria but the “negotiations were not easy”. Putin, in his turn, pointed out that it was possible “to get a mutual understanding” and that the parties have “a certain convergence of views”. Obama stressed that they could not fill in the gaps in mutual trust yet. Putin referred to these “gaps in mutual trust” as “technical issues” that the parties need to finalize. This can be translated as follows: the reality has not changed - Russia supports the current Syrian regime while the United States still believe that Assad must go. As for Ukraine, Obama reiterated that the sanctions against Russia would not be lifted until the Minsk agreements were implemented in full. Putin responded that to normalize bilateral relations, Washington should lift the sanctions imposed against Russia. This exchange of rhetoric simply means that the parties were not able to reach an agreement. Later on the press reported that the US has made Russia the “last proposal” on Syria, which includes a cease-fire throughout the country, provision of humanitarian corridor, the termination of flights of the Syrian Air Force, as well as the launch of a joint Russian-American air campaign aimed at destroying positions of terrorists.

Syria was also discussed during the meeting of Erdogan with Obama, as well as between Erdogan and Merkel. In late August, Ankara began ground operations in Syria, stating that the operation will last until all threats posed by ISIS were eliminated. However, it is clear that Ankara is more likely interested in cleaning up the territories currently controlled by the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG/YPJ), which Ankara considers no less a threat than ISIS though supported by the US. There are already problems in the US-Turkish relations in connection with the coup attempt in Turkey in July and Ankara's request for extradition of Fethullah Gülen, claimed by the Turkish authorities to be the organizer of the coup. With all these issues in the background, it seems that Americans are increasingly losing control over the situation in Syria, giving the initiative to Iran and Russia, both of which, apparently, had agreed to take into account the Turkish interests in the region. “In fact, we cannot run our own game in the Middle East and we are definitely losing it to Russians and Iranians”, complains bitterly the host at Fox News. After the summit, Erdogan said that Obama had suggested holding of joint actions against ISIS militants in Raqqa, which they call their own capital city.

The Syrian subject was also the main topic of discussions during Erdogan's conversation with Merkel, although the Turkish-German relations are also overshadowed due to Berlin’s criticism of Ankara in regard to the latter’s actions after the coup attempt, as well as the fact that the Bundestag has recently recognized the so-called “Armenian genocide”. However, Berlin understands that not only Turkey is one of the major actors in the region, largely affecting the situation in Syria, but it also can be very effective in dealing with the main European headache - the refugees from the Middle East and Africa. Ankara was promised a visa-free entry into the EU but there is still no progress in this regard. Germany will take the G20 chairmanship soon and the next summit will be held in Hamburg before the elections to the Bundestag. Therefore, Frau Merkel has a limited time during which she has to do her best and be careful about her cards in hand.

The only one who Erdogan was able to make things work properly was Putin, and it seems in Hangzhou, they have used every opportunity to talk further. The entire world media and social networks have enthusiastically discussed the official photo shot at the G20 summit, where Obama curiously looks over Xi Jinping and Merkel at Erdogan and Putin, who had been passionately talking about something. Washington does not favour the friendship between Moscow and Ankara for many reasons. Such a friendship means inter alia the renewal of energy cooperation, which provides Russia with an access to European energy markets bypassing Ukraine and additional tools for Ankara to press on Brussels. And, of course, as already mentioned above, Syria is yet another aspect of friendship between Ankara and Moscow.

 

What was Beijing’s message about?

It is likely that Obama and his delegation had been carefully watching over the contacts between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping during the summit. The improved relations between Beijing and Moscow is also disadvantageous for Washington although the overall impression is this improvement is not so much about the interests of Moscow and Beijing as about the demonstration of a joint position against America. As Xi Jinping said during the meeting with Putin, China and Russia should strengthen mutual support as far as the protection of sovereignty is concerned and enhance mutual political support. The Chinese leader stressed that his country supports Russia in its efforts to “follow the path of development considering the realities of the country” and also urged to actively promote rapprochement of strategies between EAEC and the Silk Road. These are integrative transport projects bypassing the existing or planned projects led by the US, such as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), which has recently been met with increasing skepticism on the part of its main actors - the leading countries of Europe, France and Germany. In Asia, the Transpacific Partnership on creation of free trade zone is stalling without the participation of China, which has its own extensive economic plans for the region - the project “One Belt, One Road”, providing for the establishment of transport links between China and Europe, China and Africa. China has also stressed that economic sanctions are devastating and poorly affect the international economic and political environment, which was definitely a message addressed to Russia. Xi Jinping has called Vladimir Putin “the guest number one” at the summit. Putin has also made a gesture bringing with him a box full of ice-creams for his Chinese counterpart. It seems that the idea was not only to sweeten Xi Jinping but to remind him the place where he was presented the idea of this gift – the East Economic Forum in Vladivostok on September 2-3. Both leaders had discussed a number of attractive economic projects including the establishment of a large Asian energy ring.

The reception given to Barack Obama in China was in a sharp contrast with above. First, the red carpet stairway was not provided to the presidential plane, and the head of the States was forced to go down using the tail ladder. Then, Chinese security officials did not allow American reporters and even some members of the US delegation, including Obama’s National Security Adviser Susan Rice, to approach the presidential aircraft. One of the Chinese security officials screamed at White House staff, demanding the U.S. press leave the scene: “This is our country. This is our airport”. Rice later commented on the incident saying: “They did what we did not expect”. The New York Post reports that this violated the tradition respected during all visits of US presidents in other countries. The question is why the Chinese did that. The message is simple: the Americans had been publicly denied “exclusive rights”. The message reads as follows: “You are not leaders, you are equals among equals”. They actually challenged the existing world system. In the East, everything is done for a reason, and sometimes signs are more important than just words. It is noteworthy that the American press has tried to present the incident as a personal disrespect to President Obama, not to the United States.

Incidentally, President Obama was also hurt by the newly elected President of Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, who called his colleague SOB, if you know what I mean. Duterte was enraged that Obama was trying to interfere internal affairs of Philippines, criticizing mass executions of drug traffickers without due trial as violation of human rights. “I am the president of a sovereign state, and we have long ceased to be a colony”, exploded Duterte. In fact, the incontinence of President Duterte is not as interesting as the fact that he should have not alienate Obama in this way since the Philippines actually need American support. In July, the international tribunal in The Hague ruled in favor of the Philippines in a maritime dispute, concluding China has no legal basis to claim rights to the bulk of the South China Sea within the “nine-dash line” and that the disputed territories of Spratly (Nansha) archipelago are not islands and do not form exclusive economic zone. China rejected the decision, and this will likely affect the interests of the Philippines and other neighboring countries. Beijing is also against any intervention of the third states and assures that the problem can be resolved “through negotiations with countries that have a direct relation to this matter”. Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying, after a public “bulldoze” of Duterte on Obama, has confirmed the readiness of her country to strengthen relations with the Philippines, and, apparently, Manila understood the hint very well. After all, American support seems distant compared to China's potential pressure in terms of export delays on Filipino exports and seaports, as well as prohibitions and restrictions on fishing and tourist traffic. As for the third countries, the Chinese Foreign Ministry has appreciated the Russian support to this issue. Moreover, Moscow and Beijing have previously announced joint naval exercises in the South China Sea.

 

That’s the way it is...

So, the summit has clearly demonstrated the global balance of powers at the moment. Europe being tortured by the migration crisis and the consequences of Brexit looked pale, and even the international debut of Theresa May wearing a red suit did not change the situation. Barack Obama seemed to be negligible for his colleagues, sort of a lame-duck shot twice. But soon the situation will change. Firstly, it is still unknown how the successor of Obama will behave. It is clear that many of America's rivals have become lucky due to the former’s weak leadership in recent years, which means that all the fun is yet to come. Turkey has changed its foreign policy vector but the question is how strong her current alliances are? Russia seems to be leading the ball in international affairs but is it doing well at home? Therefore, we can expect surprises in world politics both in Syria and the whole Middle East. Unfortunately, it is possible that the situation in Ukraine will deteriorate and the recent statements of the parties hint about this.

The next gathering of world policymakers will be on September 17-25 at the UN General Assembly. It is, of course, not a place where one expects the same intensity of negotiations or an abundance of encrypted messages. It seems whatever could be said for the near future has already been said in China.



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