OLD PROBLEMS, NEW CIRCUMSTANCES

India and Pakistan, the two nuclear powers, are on the brink of war again caused by a major terrorist attack on the India-Pakistan border and escalating the tension between two neighbouring states.

Mutual threats

As a result of the terrorist attack on February 14, at least 42 people were killed and over a hundred were injured. Suicide bomber drove an SUV equipped with 350 kg of explosives to one of the buses of the military convoy of the Central Reserve Police Force of India. Jaish-e-Mohammed, a terrorist group fighting to join the Kashmir region to Pakistan, claimed the responsibility for the attack.

Shortly after the attack, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi released a statement promising a bloody revenge and expressed his condolences to the relatives of the victims. A few days after the statement, India launched an anti-terrorist operation in Jammu and Kashmir. The military command announced the complete elimination of the leadership of the Jaish-e-Muhammad in the northern state, including the organiser of the terrorist act Abdul Rashid Ghazi.

At the same time, a wave of anti-Pakistan protests swept across India. New Delhi accused Islamabad of supporting Islamist militants. In turn, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan threatened India with a corresponding response if India attacks Pakistan. The head of the Pakistani government called for solving the Kashmir issue through dialogue and expressed his country's readiness to negotiate with India on the fight against terrorism. "Terrorism is the great problem of our region, and we want to eradicate it," Imran Khan said expressing Pakistan’s disinterest in using his country's territory by and for radicals.

Following the event, India and Pakistan recalled ambassadors from New Delhi and Islamabad, respectively. Even the call from the Pakistani Foreign Ministry to conduct an independent investigation of the incident did not help de-escalate tension. Remarkably, Narendra Modi stated that India intended to "isolate" Pakistan by all available diplomatic methods, which means the possibility of depriving Pakistan of the status of "priority partner". India has already abolished Pakistan’s privileges (more than $2 billion according to a bilateral agreement) as a most-favoured-nation in the WTO. Immediately after the terrorist attack, Indian government raised customs duties on goods from the neighbouring country to 200%, thereby effectively banning their importation. Altogether, the case can even go as far as breaking India-Pakistan relations.

Pakistan demands that India provide strong evidence of the involvement of official Islamabad with terrorists. However, Indians believe that no evidence is required, at least because Masood Azhar, the leader of Jaish-e-Mohammad is hiding in Punjab, Pakistan. Islamabad argues that there are no sufficient grounds for arrest of Azhar.

Obviously, the conflict in Jammu and Kashmir is so deep both in terms of inter-ethnic and inter-religious relations, as well as in the context of bilateral Indo-Pakistani relations that it is difficult to expect that it end soon. The further aggravation of confrontation, on the contrary, is possible.

According to the Times of India, the generals in Delhi are discussing options for an offensive against terrorists involving ground forces that will target militant strongholds. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that the issue leads to large-scale hostilities between the armies of India and Pakistan. Primarily because of the nuclear potential of both countries. This is the main reason why the escalation of conflict between the two states threatens the entire region and the world. This explains the serious concern of the international community in connection with the latest spiral of tensions in India-Pakistan relations.

Geopolitics

Growth of confrontation between New Delhi and Islamabad cannot be viewed separate from the interests of other great powers, primarily the United States, Russia and China. The United States is explicitly trying to transfer India into the orbit of its geopolitical influence and at the same time to maintain traditional partnership (sometimes obviously allied) relations with Pakistan.

Apparently, the goal of Americans is to limit the regional influence of Russia, China, and Iran. In an effort to make relations with New Delhi more strategic in character, Washington offers India cooperation in peaceful development of its nuclear potential and invites India to purchase American military equipment, including unarmed reconnaissance drones, aircraft carriers, and fighter jets (F-18 and F-16).

U.S. relations with Pakistan are ambiguous because the White House, on the one hand, criticises Islamabad for its inability to effectively fight the terrorists (President Trump even called Pakistan "a sponsor of terrorist organisations"), and on the other hand, treats Pakistan as an ally, as Pakistan plays an instrumental role for the Afghan campaign of the United States, providing its territory for the delivery of American troops to Afghanistan.

Russia has mainly economic and communication interests in the region. Moscow has failed to establish sufficiently developed relations with Pakistan since the Soviet times, especially when the Soviet troops were in Afghanistan. On the contrary, Russia traditionally pays great attention to India. In particular, Moscow is actively pushing forward the North-South transport corridor project, leading to intensification of trilateral negotiations between Russia, Iran and India recently. It is assumed that the new route will pass through the territory of four states - Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran and India. The route originates in the Indian port city of Mumbai, from where goods are shipped by sea to the Iranian port of Bender-Enzeli. From Iran, cargo will go through the territory of Azerbaijan to Russia, from where they can directly go to European countries.

It is believed that this project can become a competitor for the Chinese Silk Road. However, as far as "reconciliation" is concerned, it is even possible to make sure both intercontinental projects are coordinated. Therefore, Azerbaijan’s position looks very attractive. Baku has completed works on the infrastructure necessary for the full-fledged launch of the North-South project, and provided a $500-million loan to Tehran for the construction of the Rasht-Astara railway line going along the Caspian seashore. At the same time, Azerbaijan is trying to connect to the project Pakistan, which is one of the closest strategic allies of Azerbaijan. In particular, Islamabad, condemns the occupation of Azerbaijani territories and has no relations with the aggressor country, Armenia. Therefore, it is possible that the North-South will be connected with Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, and then with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which is an important element of Beijing’s global strategy to create the Silk Road Economic Belt.

Azerbaijan plays a significant role between various integration projects on Eurasian continent. Amidst the escalation of the Indian-Pakistani confrontation, the integration efforts of Baku is a chance for bringing together the economic and transport-communication interests of India and Pakistan. This also goes in line with the aspirations of the international community, which is expecting the speedy reolution of the conflict before it turns to a military conflict between the two nuclear powers.

Kashmir of discord

Until 1947, the territory of Jammu and Kashmir has been part of a semi-independent principality governed by a Hindu maharaja, although the majority of residents were Muslims. When the British India was divided, maharajah signed an act, which connected Jammu and Kashmir to India, flaring up fighting between Muslims and Hindus, which eventually ended in 1949. Under the auspices of the United Nations, Jammu and Kashmir was divided into two parts: one for Pakistan, and the other one for India. Meanwhile, the predominantly Muslim-inhabited Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir has been a scene of bloody clashes between local rebels and Indian security forces for almost thirty years.

Military conflicts between India and Pakistan have taken place since the separation of the state after its liberation from the British colonial rule. Both countries have had periods of war and cold peace, often balancing, however, on the verge of yet another armed conflict. Sometimes India and Pakistan make certain steps towards each other, especially in the economic sphere. However, economic ties have not yet led to a radical rapprochement between the states, confirmed by the joint participation of New Delhi and Islamabad in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.