GREEN LIGHT FOR NETANYAHU… AGAIN

The 21st elections to Knesset, the highest legislative and supreme authority of Israel, ended. As in previous years, the Likud party headed by incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu became the main favourite of the election campaign. However, the election results showed that for the first time in many years Netanyahu’s unshakable positions were shaken, and a young star lit up on the political horizon of Israel, the Kahol-Lavan bloc.

Against the orthodox

The current parliamentary crisis in Israel is caused by a draft law on the mandatory recruitment of ultra-Orthodox Jews to military service. The document initiated by former Defence Minister Avigdor Lieberman provoked heated discussions in the Knesset. Ultra-orthodox deputies blocked the discussion in parliament, threatening to leave the coalition. It became clear that the ruling coalition was falling apart even before the parliamentary elections scheduled for November 2019. In this situation, many party leaders, in particular the popular politician and Minister of Education, Naftali Bennet, called for holding early elections.

In fact, the internal processes in Israel and public disagreements did not occur today. Lieberman’s proposal only agitated them. Many Israelis are unhappy with the privileged position of the ultra-Orthodox Jews, the Haredim. They use all sorts of social preferences, while most of them are unemployed, to fully engage in the study of the Torah. Traditions and customs of this part of Jewish society are quite radical and no less cruel than those of their Muslim counterparts. It is not uncommon, for example, to see Hasidic and other Orthodox Jews throw stones at secular Israelis when they find out that their behaviour does not correspond to religious dogmas. The aggressive behaviour of the orthodox causes irritation to ordinary Jews, especially to new immigrants. In addition, the radicals are exempt from the military service, which is obligatory for all Israelis. Orthodox Jews make up about 10% of the population of Israel and most of the inhabitants of Jewish settlements in the West Bank. Moreover, they refuse to leave their lands (as was the case with the unilateral disengagement in Gaza), conflict with Muslims and demand that the state of Israel take care of their security, despite plans for a peaceful settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict. Israeli outrage is often reflected in the candidates' election promises, and with each new government, the population is waiting for the abolishment of most of the orthodox privileges.

Kahol-Lavan

The newly created political alliance Kahol-Lavan, or Blue and White in Hebrew (colours of the Israeli flag), has become a new wave of the election race.

The "staff members", as their opponents often call them, are led by three former chiefs of the General Staff of the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF)—Benny Gantz, Moshe Ya'alon and Gabi Ashkenazi. The leading role in this triumvirate belongs to the leader of the Hosen l'Yisrael party (Israel Resilience Party), Lieutenant General Benny Gantz, who should have become the new prime minister of Israel if successful in the elections. Hosen l'Yisrael created just before the elections, immediately won the support of a wide circle of voters due to its centre-left position. According to Gantz, the ideology of the movement can be summed up as follows: a right step in security issues and a left step in socio-economic issues. As to ​​security, an important point of the pre-election platform is the holding of a regional conference with the participation of Arab states interested in stability in the Middle East to help disengagement from Palestine. At the same time, Benny Gantz considers it important to maintain the Israeli military presence in the West Bank. During the election campaign, he also warned Iranian generals, Hezbollah and Hamas leaders about the consequences of the aggression against Israel.

But the best asset of Kahol-Lavan was social promises, particularly those that affected repatriates and people of pre-retirement age. They promise to increase attention to the agrarian sector, which employs up to half of the Israeli population. An important factor here is the position of the Yesh Atid party, which is part of the bloc, and its leader, former defence and finance minister Yair Lapid, who supports state subsidies for education, health and housing.

The Netanyahu phenomenon

Benjamin Netanyahu remains the strongest political figure in Israel over the years, serving as the prime minister of Israel for more than thirteen years, with the last ten years uninterruptedly. This is the second longest term in the history of Israel after the reign of David Ben-Gurion. Moreover, Netanyahu has every chance to leave the founding father of the State of Israel behind, if he is once again elected to form the cabinet, although his first term as prime minister (1996–99) failed due to resonant scandals. After losing direct elections to the leader of the socialists, Ehud Barak, Netanyahu decided to leave politics forever. But it was just a political move. Within a few years, Netanyahu triumphantly returned leading the Likud again. Becoming the prime minister of Israel for the second time, he has not left the post again. Being an avid supporter of the popular 'Jewish character of the state', Netanyahu, however, expanded the territory of the Palestinian Authority and agreed to the formula 'two states for two peoples'. For the duality of domestic and foreign policy, the Western media dubbed him the 'Israeli Talleyrand'.

In his campaign speeches, Netanyahu again tried to play the anti-Arab card, saying that 'the Arabs already have 22 states, and there is no need to create another one.' The Arabs of Israel and the secular part of Jewish society immediately reacted, accusing Netanyahu of racism and ethnic segregation.

No matter how hawkish the position of the Great Bibi looks like in matters of security, many people pay him credit for Israel's economic accomplishments. Privatisation of large companies under state control, attraction of large-scale foreign investments and the establishment of high-tech production have strengthened the domestic market and at the same time the international prestige of Israel. As a result, Israel has overcome the last economic crisis, much faster than Europe and America. It remains the centre of gravity even for Arabs, who refuse to recognise it, but use shekels only and do not intend to change them for Egyptian or Jordanian currency. It is not surprising that Israelis, far from authoritarianism, consider Netanyahu to be the best prime minister in the history of Israel.

Knesset in Trouble

Since Israel is a parliamentary republic, elections to the Knesset are considered the main voting in the country. According to Israeli laws, the President of Israel during the week after the announcement of the results should appoint a person responsible for establishing the cabinet of ministers. It should be noted that never in the history of Israel a single party was able to get an absolute (more than 60 mandates) majority in the Knesset, and therefore all governments were in fact coalition governments. It is the art of negotiating that reveals the significance of Israeli politicians. And the incumbent prime minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, has an indisputable advantage in the ability to negotiate. Indeed, Netanyahu headed the government even after he formally lost elections in 2009: although Kadima with its leader Tsipi Livni secured more votes than Likud of Netanyahu, it was the latter who was charged with forming the cabinet.

The same scheme was used this time as well. Without waiting for the final results of the voting, Netanyahu announced his victory. Although nominally Likud gained the same 29.2% as Kahol-Lavan, Bibi managed to secure the support of the entire right front before the elections. This time, however, the 'capitalists and nationalists' in parliament will be seriously pushed by a strong leftist opposition, as it is very likely that the oldest labour party of Israel, Avoda, and the parties of the Arab minority, Hadash-Ta'al and Ra'am-Balad will join Kahol-Lavan. In general, the centre-left can secure 55 mandates in the Knesset and a good half of ministerial portfolios.

Apparently, we will witness yet another 'dawn of the Netanyahu era', as opposed to what analysts forecast before the elections. And the world will watch interesting political battles in the Knesset and the government of Israel.