MISSION VENEZUELA

Internal political confrontation in Venezuela is increasingly assuming features of the next proxy conflict between Russia and the United States with plenty of familiar episodes from other countries, especially Syria. One of such features concerns the "fate of the ruler". The U.S. and a number of other Western countries have recognised the president of the parliament Juan Guaido as a legitimate president of Venezuela, while Russia, China, Turkey, Mexico, Indonesia support the incumbent president Nicolas Maduro elected in 2018. Secondly, the U.S. is seriously considering the possibility of military intervention, while Russia is increasing its presence in the country with a number of military advisers. Thirdly, there is a threat of large-scale involvement of other countries in the conflict, including both regional (Cuba, Colombia) and non-regional states (Iran). Fourthly, given that the international laws imply the need for a serious excuse to justify military presence of the third countries on the territory of a sovereign state, such an excuse is almost available in Venezuela. Millions of Venezuelan nationals are leaving the country to escape the problems associated with the depreciation of the national currency, shortage of food and fuel, inadequate medical care and periodic power outages. The Western media calls Venezuela a bankrupt state, which is unable to protect its own population and provide it with basic rights. Meanwhile, similar to previous time-tested scenarios, the U.S. sanctions significantly worsen the existing humanitarian crisis. Maduro calls his rival Guaido a puppet of the United States who only needs the natural resources of the country, including oil, gas, gold, diamonds, and uranium. Finally, both the EU and UK show a peaceful reaction to the events, calling the parties to refrain from military intervention and to find opportunities for political dialogue. In fact, they only recuse themselves from the conflict.

Something went wrong

The political crisis in Venezuela began in January, when Nicolas Maduro, who has led the country since 2013, won the elections in 2018 and took the presidential oath. On January 15, the opposition-controlled parliament announced that the December elections had been rigged and recognized Maduro as an usurper. On January 23, Juan Guaido declared himself an acting president. The U.S., most of the Latin American countries and the EU recognised Guaido as an interim head of state, which was followed by mass protests in the country, which, however, did not lead to the final departure of Maduro.

Trying to stop the effects of dual power, the opposition attempted to carry out a coup again on April 30. Guaido took people to the streets to complete Operation Freedom to overthrow Maduro. The opposition announced the beginning of a shift strike, which had to become a general demonstration. Guaido made it clear that the army was supporting him. In addition, the release from the house arrest of Leopoldo Lopez - the main opposition leader, who is much more popular than Guaido, and almost a cult figure, would have encouraged the protesters. According to Western media, there is allegedly a document, which should ensure the "decent leave of Maduro", recognition of Guaido by the Supreme Court as an interim president and holding elections during the year. So, Leopoldo Lopez was considered the most likely candidate for the presidency, who tweeted calling his compatriots to "win" freedom. Washington was watching the ongoing events with tension. "We are with you!", Vice President Mike Pence announced in his tweet, under which he put the hashtag in Spanish #operacionlibertad ("Operation Freedom"). The opposition gathered in Caracas in front of the La Carlota airbase, starting to break the fence of the airport. However, in reality there were not so many ordinary Venezuelans who were ready to support Guaido and Lopez. Despite the fact that the degree of discontent with what is happening in the country is incredibly high, it seems that most of the inhabitants of Caracas do not want to participate in the popular revolution. Perhaps they have seen enough of what the similar events in other countries lead to, even in Syria. The military also had only a few dozen people.

He did not become the expected inspiration of the masses for the overthrow of Maduro and Leopoldo Lopez, although his appearance in public was a very bright signal. The fact is that the release of Lopez occurred by the special services of SEBİN, and allegedly the head of the Bolivarian National Intelligence Service Christopher Figuera was on the side of those who, inside Maduro's entourage, wanted him to leave. According to some reports, Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez, Chief Justice of the Supreme Court Michel Moreno and head of the presidential guard and head of military counterintelligence Ivan Rafael Hernandez Dala were also ready to "hand over" the president. Allegedly, they held negotiations for the transfer of power behind Maduro’s back, and upon learning of this, the President prepared to flee to Cuba. What actually happened was whether Maduro was really going to flee, and if so, why he did not run away, it is not exactly known. But it is obvious that the plans of Guaido and Lopez were thwarted, and the authorities declared the failure of the coup attempt. Lopez took refuge in the embassy of Chile, and then with his family moved to the diplomatic mission of Spain. Figuera left Venezuela, while Defence Minister Vladimir Lopez, during Maduro’s speech at the military academy in Caracas, appeared after the incident just next to the President. It is said that Vladimir Lopez was the man who informed Maduro about everything. As for Michel Morena, he, as a diligent supporter of Maduro, declared on May 8 that "the Supreme Court of Venezuela will not succumb to blackmailing the United States, threatening with sanctions, and will continue to make decisions against those who violate peace in the country."

It is obvious that Guaido and Lopez could not rely on the military, who have real strength and resources. Western experts are trying hard to understand why this happened. In general, this is explained by the fact that "the decaying Venezuelan army is no longer in the service of the population," although there are many individual members of the army, especially from the lower ranks, who support the opposition. In addition, the Cubans, who are strong in intelligence and counterintelligence, help the military with the alleged help of Maduro. By the way, immediately after the unsuccessful coup, the president of Venezuela expelled dozens of military men from the army and lowered them in ranks.

No-go lines

It is fundamentally important to understand that Guaido admitted the unsuccessful coup attempt in Venezuela and said he was ready to approve the U.S. proposal to intervene in the country, if he receives one. Trump earlier said that the U.S. was considering all options for solving the crisis. In early May, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo once again declared that his country could use military force in Venezuela. As if to confirm the seriousness of intentions of the American authorities, the acting U.S. Secretary of Defence Patrick Shanahan cancelled his trip to Europe "to focus on Venezuela."

And here comes the most interesting moment. During his interview with CNN, Pompeo said that Maduro had been allegedly ready to run away to Havana but then was stopped by Russians and Cubans right before entering the plane. In other words, the Americans actually announced that support from Russia is the reason why the Venezuelan president remains in power. Representatives of Cuba and Russia, of course, categorically denied everything, but telephone conversations followed between Pompeo and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, as well as between the Russian and American presidents. The conversation of the presidents was initiated by Americans and, apparently, it was so important for Trump to talk with Putin that he did not care of the harsh criticism at home, where he is called "Putin's press secretary." According to many observers, Venezuela was the main topic of the conversation, and the U.S. president was trying to understand how far Russia was ready to go in support of Maduro. As a result, Trump stated that he had "a very positive conversation with Putin" and that "He (Putin) is not looking at all to get involved in Venezuela other than he would like to see something positive happen... and I feel the same way," Trump added. The problem, however, is that many members of his administration and most American political analysts think differently. "Obviously, Putin’s understanding of the 'positive development' differs from that of Trump," The Wall Street Journal ironically writes.

As for the conversation between Pompeo and Lavrov, the former, unlike his boss, noted that "Moscow’s support for the Maduro regime has a destabilising effect not only on Venezuela, but also on Russian-American relations." Lavrov said that the continuation of "aggressive (American) steps is fraught with the gravest consequences." Also on May 5, the head of the international committee of the Russian Council of Federations, Konstantin Kosachev, noted that Russia would regard any scenario of the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela as aggression against an independent state". Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova added that Washington "is trying hard to demoralise the Venezuelan army" through "waging information war with fake news". Thus, allies and foes are clearly defined, same as the no-go lines. So, Pompeo warned the Maduro regime and its allies that they would face serious consequences if Guaido is arrested. Interestingly, as if nothing happened, Moscow invited Maduro to visit St. Petersburg to participate in the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 6-8.

"This is our hemisphere"

Reasons of the conflict are clear. Russia, China, Iran and Cuba are actively cooperating with Venezuela. Russia and China, for example, sell to Caracas assault rifles, jet fighters, tanks and rocket systems worth billions of dollars, and provide loans. In general, since the time of Hugo Chávez, Russia has invested tens of billions of dollars in Venezuelan economy. In Venezuela, there are thousands of Cubans, mainly medical workers (medical assistance in response to Venezuelan oil), although the Western media claim that most of them are military. Such interaction cannot but irritate Washington. As the National Security Adviser to the White House, John Bolton, said: "This is our hemisphere. It's not where the Russians ought to be interfering. This is a mistake on their part."

It appears that Moscow is well aware of the risks of a mediated conflict with the United States in their hemisphere, but it is possible that the Kremlin is trying to use the existing situation to expand its negotiating capabilities in situations in Syria, around Ukraine, as well as the construction of the Nord Stream-2. Also, even a hypothetical threat of a Russian military base in Venezuela can force Washington to reconsider its plans regarding the deployment of its bases in Romania, Poland and the Baltic states. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu hinted a possibility of such a base back in 2014. In December 2018, Venezuela and Russia held joint military exercises. In addition, it is well known that the U.S. considers Venezuela as part of its "backyard", which suggests analogies of the same attitude of Russia to Ukraine.

Russia assumes that the U.S. is unlikely to have a positive decision on open military intervention, particularly considering the disagreements between Trump and Bolton. According to the American media, Trump is not willing to escalate the conflict, while Bolton calls for the use of force. The American president is afraid of infuriating the isolationist wing of the Republican Party, which can turn Latin American states against the U.S. Prolongation of the situation bears a risk of losing the votes of the conservative Spanish-speaking voters, especially in the key vacillating state of Florida.

Situation in Venezuela will most likely escalate. Russia has demonstrated that it was ready to respond in the Syrian format, but this mission may be too costly for it. At the same time, the U.S. has not yet fully demonstrated its potential to knock out the rivals from Venezuela. According to different scenarios, the population of all Latin American states may be affected due to the ​​collision of large interests.