MAY LEAVES BUT THE PROBLEM REMAINS

British Prime Minister Theresa May will resign on June 7 as the leader of the Conservative Party. She announced this to media in front of her residence on Downing Street on May 24. At the same time, she will continue to lead the cabinet until a new conservative leader is elected. Traditionally, voting is held in two rounds and may take several weeks.

In 2016, when Tories chose the next leader, the whole process took 17 days. New British Prime Minister can be elected either immediately before the summer parliamentary holidays, which begin in late July, or after them in September. According to The Guardian, Theresa May’s departure may launch a tough struggle of successors within the ruling Conservative Party, but deputies have been preparing for this opportunity for months, while the authority of the British prime minister weakened, and several ministers in her cabinet resigned. Other well-known conservatives have already begun an active campaign to replace Theresa May as party leader and prime minister.

Thorny path to power

Almost no one remembers what Mrs. May said in her first keynote speech in the summer of 2016 after she was elected a prime minister. As a very accurate, organised and energetic person, Theresa May's rise to the top of her political career has taken almost forty years. However, the path was thorny and not very steep. By the age of thirty, she received the mandate of a member of a district municipality in south-west London. After two unsuccessful attempts to become a member of parliament in 1997, she has still managed to get a parliamentarian seat. In 2010, Prime Minister David Cameron offered May a post as head of the women's affairs department in his government. Two years later, in 2012, May headed the Ministry of the Interior. Finally, in July 2016, after the Brexit referendum and Cameron’s resignation, she, somewhat unexpectedly, was elected as the new leader of the Conservative Party and became Prime Minister.

During three years of her premiership, she had to pass two serious tests, the first being the vote in the House of Commons on the draft agreement on withdrawal from the EU held on January 15, 2019. Then the May government suffered a serious defeat when 432 members of the British parliament opposed the draft proposed by May versus 202 members supporting the document. According to Daily Telegraph, “the government, which in theory has a majority in the House of Commons, has never lost with such a score”, when the May cabinet could not fulfil its main, in fact the only, task — to lead Britain out of the European Union by March 29.

The second test for Mrs. May has taken place in the past two years, when 36 members of her government resigned. The previous anti-record belongs to the former leader of the Labour Party, Tony Blair (29 members of the Cabinet), which he has set in a little more than ten years, not in two years.

Inconvenient partner

According to British analysts, Theresa May, at least at the beginning of her premiership, simply did not understand, same as almost no one in Britain, what it meant to withdraw the country from the union into which it had been integrated almost half a century ago. With the collapse of colonialism, European direction for the United Kingdom became more important than relations with the overseas territories. Membership in the EEC, and then in the European Union was a forced measure due to the lack of other alternatives. But the country has gained a strong position in the integrated group, however, demanding special conditions, it has become an “inconvenient partner.” In the UK itself, there have been ongoing discussions on European integration. Sceptics were concerned about the loss of national sovereignty and identity, dissatisfied with the EU social model, while optimists considered self-isolation from the continent detrimental for the country. The logic of integration led to the deepening of both economic and political cooperation, which caused an increase in mistrust in Britain in the context of the economic recession of 2008-2009, the Eurozone crisis and migration problems. Hence, Prime Minister David Cameron was forced to hold a referendum on Britain's membership in the EU. The results of the plebiscite showed a serious split of the society - just over half of the British voted for the withdrawal from the EU, while the other half wished to keep the membership in the union. This led to disunity on social, age, regional and other equally important features. It was not only socially vulnerable who voted for Brexit but also socially prosperous segments of the population. Due to globalisation, the first group of voters are worried about immigration, while the second one in the shift of economic power to the East. The first political outcome of the referendum became apparent immediately after the vote. Prime Minister Cameron lost the referendum and resigned, and Teresa May became the new British Prime Minister. She received both posts without election, because her party rival withdrew her candidacy in the last stage of elections. Then Teresa May, only under pressure from party members, cautiously made a few statements supporting Bremain (opposite of Brexit) but after the referendum, she said "Brexit means Brexit", although Mrs. May has demonstrated herself as a passive supporter of the European Union during the referendum. It was because of this point of view that her candidacy for the Conservative leader’s position suited everyone. The announcement of nationwide results of the referendum did not take long. Scotland supported membership in the EU and intends to hold a new referendum on independence, while Northern Ireland fears the closure of the border with Ireland. In addition, for more than half a century, London has attracted the world's largest and leading banks, corporations, companies and asset management funds, being a unsurpassed global financial centre. But Brexit has put this status at risk, forcing global companies serving European customers to move their offices and operations from London to Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Paris and Brussels. American banking giants Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup have already transferred about 300 billion euros to Frankfurt. Bank of America has spent $400 million to move personnel and transfer operations from London to Paris. French companies BNP Paribas, Crédit Agricole and Société Générale also decided to transfer about 1,000 employees from the City to Paris. In the near future, these actions will lead to a reduction in tax revenues, a reduction in jobs and the number of transactions, which will affect the investment attractiveness of the UK and London in particular. British scientists believe that the economy of their country is currently at 1-2.5% less than it would have been without a vote for Brexit, and the British pound after the referendum has lost more than 10% of its value against the dollar.

European Time of Troubles

European Union is in a state of unrest too. European power groups are regrouping. Many states, in particular, small member countries, which in the past have regularly supported Great Britain, now realise that after Brexit they will have to pay more attention to building coalitions with a wider range of partners. And this is a long-term trend. According to Süddeutsche Zeitung, "exit of Britain can rally the EU, which, in turn, can lead to a change in the political vector." Now the European Union can easily launch projects in the field of defense, financial regulation and in the public sector, which was quite difficult with the membership of the UK, especially on the first issue. In addition, small EU states believe that they will have to put more effort into being heard in Brussels and for another reason - after Brexit, major participating States will become even more influential. At the same time, relations between large and small countries will change as a whole - and, most likely, in favour of the latter. If one of the major states leaves the EU, setting up alliances becomes more significant. But for small EU states, there may be cause for concern. In the absence of such a counterbalance as the UK, large countries will make their own decisions simply by forcing younger partners to act. Particularly, peripheral EU member states can face situations when they are completely rejected aside from solving the weighty problems of the EU. An additional impetus will be given to the cooperation of France and Germany, which has long been a driving force of political processes in the EU. French President, Emmanuel Macron, has already initiated a large-scale plan for reforming the EU and deepening integration with Germany in the economic, political and security spheres, according to which the Eurozone will become the core of the union. He is supported by the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who the well-known retired European politicians, as well as the leaders of the EU countries see as the new president of European Commission or the European Council, since Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk will leave these posts after the elections to the European Parliament. In addition, the EU has already reformatted the future European Parliament 'thanks to' Britain. British quota was 75 mandates out of 705. EU officials reduced the number of deputies by 46 people, and the remaining 27 mandates were distributed among 14 countries. But Germany itself, according to experts, regardless of what disagreements arise on the European continent, will always try to be in its very centre, trying to hold together the East and the West, the North and the South. Subsequently, this will help Germany to become a decisive force in Europe, which will gradually attract other states to its orbit.

On May 21, Theresa May expressed her consent to the voting in the House of Commons on the second Brexit referendum, hoping, therefore, to hold through the parliament three times his rejection of the agreement on secession from the European Union. “The Cabinet is ready to make certain compromises in order to convince the MPs to back the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, and one of these compromises is a vote on a new referendum,” May said. At the same time, British Prime Minister said that the provision on the referendum will be included in the draft resolution of the Parliament regarding the agreement with the EU. In other words, Mrs. May thus invited opponents of withdrawal advocating for the second referendum to simultaneously vote for the referendum and for withdrawal from the EU, as specified in the agreement. But the majority of MPs backing the second referendum are seeking precisely the abolition of Brexit. They believe that Britons are now well aware of the difficulties associated with the withdrawal of the country from the EU and will vote against it.

Apparently, May's departure will not have a major impact on the seemingly endless process called Brexit. Any new British deal with the EU will be only a version of the agreement reached by the former prime minister. The first referendum ended in almost a draw, and this would have meant that the wishes of both parties must be taken into account in order not to deepen the split. With the election of a new British prime minister, the struggle may continue around the “hard” and “soft” versions of Brexit, but the problem will remain and will not be resolved by itself. Nor will the split in the society and the political elite of the United Kingdom end. But Britain’s decision to withdraw boosted political processes in the EU itself, which certainly supports the idea of unity in the remaining EU member states. Contrary to some predictions, the withdrawal of the UK did not become an example to follow. On the contrary, the EU countries do not think on leaving the EU for now, but seek new ways to preserve it, even if we hypothetically assume that Brexit does not take place in the near future.