SYMPTOMS OF DESPERATION

The Nikol Pashinian government announced the second stage of the “velvet revolution” in Armenia apparently provoked by another round of political tension after the release of Robert Kocharian, one of the iconic figures of the former criminal regime ruling the so-called Karabakh Clan.

Down with the courts!

New civil unrest in Armenia was a result of the Yerevan court decision to release from custody the former president of Armenia Robert Kocharian, who was accused of organising the suppression of mass protests on March 1, 2008. He was released under the personal guarantee of the former and current heads of the unrecognised Nagorno-Karabakh Republic Bako Sahakyan and Arkady Ghukasian, who paid a pledge of 1 million drams ($2,000).

Shortly after the adoption of the court decision, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian announced the beginning of the “second and most important stage of the revolution”, expressing his hope of “nationwide support”. The leader of the “velvet revolution” called on the citizens of Armenia to block “all exits and entrances to the courthouses without exception.” Crowds of Pashinian's supporters soon blocked the buildings of the Constitutional Court and the Court of General Jurisdiction.

However, not everyone in Armenia was happy with the actions of supporters of the “velvet revolution”. Chamber of Lawyers of Armenia, Ombudsman and the Supreme Judicial Council expressed their concern about the unlawful actions of the prime minister. By the way, the head of the Supreme Judicial Council, Gagik Harutyunyan, resigned, motivating his step by the inexpediency of his tenure after the start of the protests against the judiciary.

Meanwhile, within a few hours after the start of the protests, Pashinian called for unblocking the courts. According to him, “the purpose of the action was to fix the demand of the people to have a truly independent judicial system and state that the government and the people of Armenia are united in this.” At the same time, in his address to the people, Pashinian made it clear that he was determined to make a "surgical intervention in the judicial system." The prime minister said that the people "consider the judiciary system as a remnant of the past corrupt government, in which conspiracies against the people are constantly being prepared and implemented."

What is the real reason of Pashinian's attack on the existing judicial system of the country? The answer is obvious: the judicial system is the only branch of government that is still beyond the control of the Pashinian government, even after a year of the new rule. In fact, Pashinian has managed to subordinate to himself the local authorities, particularly the Council of Elders of Yerevan, to get a parliamentary majority after the elections in December 2018. But he is still unable to get the courts fulfil the tasks of the velvet revolution. Therefore, Pashinian demonstrates not only his readiness for a new act of destruction of the previous power system, but also the determination to achieve this goal by any means, including through street protests successfully tested by the “national leader” when he conquered the power in Armenia recently. In this context, we can recall the street activity of Pashinian's supporters, who ensured the holding of early parliamentary elections and the occupation of the leading positions in the new National Assembly by the pro-Pashinian bloc My Step. Pashinian uses the Kocharyan case as a pretext for engaging “revolutionary masses” for speedy transformation of the judicial system. It means the reanimation of the idea of ​​“transitional justice”, first voiced at a rally in Yerevan last August, timed to Pashinian’s one hundred days in the premiership. As well as threats emanating from the premier’s inner circle surround the “war against telephone justice, corrupt judges and lawlessness”, start the process of checking judges for compliance with the position even in the absence of relevant legislation.

Such radicalism performed by the “velvet revolution” government is not accidental. Pashinian views the judicial system, formed during the twenty years of the Karabakh Clan under the presidents of Kocharyan and Sargsyan as his main adversary. It seems he sees nothing wrong with the fact that, for the sake of the triumph of the law, he literally does not care about the law. It is an ordinary thing for modern Armenia anyway, for Kocharyan and Sargsyan have left behind a well-beaten track that does not take into account any legal norms for reaching the top of power. However, the fact that the Kocharian court’s release by the Yerevan court was due to a guarantee and a cash deposit from the current and former leaders of the notorious NKR convinced Pashinian of the real danger of “counter-revolution”. The center of the latter, as it should be understood from the intricacies of the current Armenian policy, is for the premier of the “Armenian revolution” Nagorno-Karabakh - the occupied Azerbaijani land, which for 30 years has been under the fifth Kocharyan, Sargsyan, Saakyan ...

Conspiracy against Pashinian?

In his address to the people, the Armenian Prime Minister actually stated the fact of a conspiracy against him by the “Karabakh clan”. Promising to take “the toughest measures to prevent such conspiracies,” Pashinian appealed to the residents of Nagorno-Karabakh occupied by Armenian troops to abandon their support for the forces that are only aiming to use them “to serve their personal group interests and to avoid responsibility for previously committed crimes.”

Interestingly though Pashinian claims that the objective of conspiracy was to launch a new war with Azerbaijan, “surrender some territories” with the responsibility shifted to the current government of Armenia. At the same time, Pashinian and his government failed to hide the fact that the Armenian society was aware of the defeat during the April clashes three years ago. Pashinian’s supporters insist on “calling things as they are”, and in this context it should be understood as a recognition of responsibility for the loss of 800 hectares of lands reconquered by Azerbaijani army, which the Armenian society viewed as a phantom of the new war with Azerbaijan. The Armenian parliament even created an auditing commission to “identify corruption that hindered army development and led to human and territorial losses”.

Also, it seems that Pashinian wants to use Karabakh as a tool for solving internal political problems. This is also not new for the country, which has actually become a hostage to the occupation of Azerbaijani Karabakh. The new Armenian leadership follows in the footsteps of previous regimes, who have used the “Azerbaijani threat” explicitly to justify the expediency of their power. However, it was during the Pashinian rule that the entire background of internal political confrontation in Armenia became clear. Its essence is the growing conflict between the new government supported mainly by the population of the Republic of Armenia, and the former ruling clan, which is supported mainly by Armenians from the occupied Karabakh and the separatist leaders of NKR. Remarkably, during his recent visit to Karabakh, Pashinian strongly condemned the “revanchists” who are trying to turn this region into a “centre of counter-revolution”.

It is possible that the Armenian prime minister has valid reasons to fear a strike from the Karabakh Clan. Anyway, the Armenian media reported that a group of NKR generals and Armenian oligarchs are preparing a conspiracy to overthrow Pashinian. At the same time, “revanchists-conspirators” manipulate concerns about Russia's distrust of the new authorities of Armenia in the sense that NKR should distance itself as far as possible from “Armenia aspiring to the West” and thus avoid a harsh reaction from Moscow.

Remarkably, the level of political, social and economic productivity of the Pashinian government remains quite low, especially after the start of civil unrest covered by Armenian authorities and disguised as “the next stage of velvet revolution”, which has faced resistance from the former ruling regime. Pashinian's rating is declining, which is not surprising, since the current authorities are exclusively engaged in a struggle to retain and strengthen their “revolutionary” power and do not bother to start solving the urgent problems of the country's permanent systemic crisis. However, Armenia is also unfortunate because of the absence of self-sufficiency, real resources for overcoming the crisis in isolation and the ongoing conflict with Azerbaijan. Therefore, Pashinian, faced with increasing pressure from political enemies, especially from predators of the Kocharyan-Sargsyan regime, has no choice but to increasingly focus on populism and declare a “new stage of revolution” - truly a “dreamy revolution” of population tired of desperation in Armenia.