TRUMP'S NEW COURSE CONTINUES

Modern American domestic and foreign policy is, above all, a product of an increasingly mobile and changing American society, which is characterized by a commitment to bourgeois traditions that provide internal and external political continuity, as well as a wide range of various modifications and innovations. As an experienced businessman, Donald Trump has managed to find an optimal balance between these two fundamental trends. On June 20, the incumbent US President Donald Trump at a meeting with his supporters and voters announced his decision to nominate his candidacy for a second presidential term. “Let's make America great again” was the slogan of American president when he ran for the presidency in 2016. “Keep America Great” is a program Donald Trump intends to run for the highest state post starting from 2020.

The coming of Donald Trump to power marked a serious change both in the foreign and domestic policy of the United States. This is well recognized by most experts and politicians and that part of the American establishment that has brought Trump to power in order to change the globalist course associated with the US Democratic Party. A certain part of Republicans supported this course, but the Republican Party maintained, albeit minimal, space for manoeuvre, while the Democrats became synonymous with hegemonic globalism. Nonetheless, this did not mean that Washington abandoned its desire for global domination. But Donald Trump, his supporters and the team as a whole prepared a course different of previous administrations' program of development and strengthening of the national economy and the position of the country on the world stage. Trump is also confident that he has found a new way to preserve the global hegemony of the United States.

The US has quickly advanced from a position of a colonial outcast of the world to a leading world power. Much of the American perception of the world stems from this rush shift to the positions that had previously been occupied by countries with a thousand-year history, with vast experience in diplomacy, with well-established mechanisms of foreign policy influence. It was this rapid shift that became the fundamental pivot of the rise of the United States in the international arena after world wars, when the American establishment, in the words of Albert Einstein, "made almost everyone, even the richest countries, into its debtors." Prospects for a radical change in the global role of the US have become a traditional topic of discussion for American legislators in the Congress. At the beginning of March 2019, the Research Service of the Lower Chamber provided the congressmen with an expert-analytical report “US Role in the World: Background and Issues for Congress."

The study examines the possible reaction of other countries to the White House’s coagulation strategy of that type of American hegemony that arose after the end of World War II and is now in crisis. US lawmakers intend to seriously study how other countries will react to a possible change in the role of the United States on the world stage. In addition, the expert report reviewed not only the current, but also the expected prospects of the “new course”, which the current head of the United States intends to be guided by in his activities, especially after declaring his intention to run for a second presidential term. The prospects of Donald Trump for the second time being elected president look very good. During the first year of his presidency, the main lines of response to the new US policy in the world have escalated. Some countries sought to minimize or compensate for the consequences of the new agenda proposed by Washington. Others sought to make the most of them. However, most states are somehow adjusting, which in itself is a testament to how strong the Trump presidency is becoming.

According to authoritative American experts, the first steps taken by the Trump team marked the beginning of the expansion and growth of the US economy, strengthening the US's economic and political role on the world stage, partly due to the ambitious initiative of the current president: America First. The unemployment rate began to decline at a good pace, hundreds of thousands of new jobs were opened, the volume of subsidies to American farmers, who are one of the cornerstones of the American economy, increased. Export of American agricultural products is also growing dynamically. The appeal of the US President to transnational companies of his country to return the main production to the homeland was also supported by the majority of American citizens. The implementation of the initiatives of assistants and economic advisers to the head of the White House to revise the liberal international economic order contributes to preserving and strengthening the role of the US as a world leader and is in line with American values ​​and interests. Trump's other new directions also have a positive effective outcome and potential benefits for the US, especially to the extent that they lead to broader and possibly more effective efforts to maintain international order after World War II. Remarkably, the abandoning by the previous owners of the White House from Washington’s historical commitment to promoting and supporting democracy has constantly accelerated. The Obama administration continued to defend democratic ideals in foreign policy but its actions were often not justified, which reduced the ability of the US to influence world events and the willingness of American public to support such efforts. In 2017, the Trump administration made clear its intention to abandon the principles that guided US policy over the past seven decades. This marked a sharp break with the policies of previous US presidents in the post-war period, which, if they collaborated with certain authoritarian regimes for strategic reasons, never hesitated in adhering to democracy as the best form of government and the foundation of US foreign policy. Such a turn reflects, above all, the unwillingness of the United States at the present time to lead the democratic states that oppose Russia and China, as well as other states that have begun to imitate an authoritarian approach.

According to other experts and observers, Trump’s more selective approach to the protection of human rights, which in practice tacitly encourages other governments in the world to violate this basic principle of democracy, is a signal to such governments that they can do this kind of action without support of the United States.

It is not surprising that many democracies and long-time partners of the US seek to mitigate the effects of such "signals", while many authoritarian regimes are trying to take advantage of existing advantages. In other words, they try to find the best balance to protect their national interests. And the question of balance is primarily a question of whether certain countries prefer to confront potential regional hegemonies or, instead, they will become more respectful of them.

Proponents of a more restrained American role in the world, but sympathetic to Trump’s policies, tend to argue that his “new course” will stimulate more and more countries that, out of self-preservation, will balance. This will help preserve global and regional balances that benefit the US and at the same time will be cost-effective.

Apparently, global adaptation to the new US policy implemented by Donald Trump has already begun. This process has not yet produced any concrete results. Most likely, under the conditions of geopolitical uncertainty, most states test their rates and capabilities in different models, as they are not sure about the optimal model.

The experts of the report “US Role in the World: Background and Issues for Congress" also note, watching the reactions of various countries around the world to Donald Trump's foreign policy, that the US president "restructure how other states interact with America and with each other " and that "as Trump shakes up American politics, he also shakes up the policies of countries all over the world."

Global responses to the new US foreign policy are neither unified nor direct, as one would expect. States responding to Trump’s policies can be divided into two parts — countries that mostly condemn Trump’s rhetoric and policies as a crisis of American global leadership, and countries that generally welcome Trump’s rhetoric and policies as a new opportunity.

Some aspects of this policy are relatively new. Others existed before Trump and were simply accented in his agenda. Nevertheless, the behaviour of the American president change the relations of the US with the world and influence the contours of the international situation. In turn, the prevalence and effectiveness of the “new course” depends primarily on how Donald Trump and his advisers determine the course during the remainder of his presidency, as well as what form the permanent changes will take from what Trump has already done. But this is the subject of another, more thorough research.