TRUMP'S AND BIDEN'S SHAKY POSITIONS

On September 24, the US Democratic Party, which holds the majority of seats in the House of Representatives, announced the launch of a formal impeachment procedure for President Donald Trump. According to Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the final vote may take place at the end of November. It is likely that the Senate (where at least two-thirds of senators should support impeachment) does not convict the president but given the surprises of American domestic politics in recent years, everything is possible. Strangely enough, it is not the American president but the president of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky is going to suffer the most from the campaign already nicknamed Ukrgate.

Beneficial impeachment

The impeachment campaign against Trump began after an anonymous American intelligence officer (a second anonymous whistle-blower came out in early October) drained to media the content of Trump's phone call to Zelensky on July 25. Democrats claim to have received data from various government officials. According to the Democrats, the American president put pressure on his Ukrainian counterpart for his own political gain, when he asked the latter to start an investigation against the son of the former US Vice President Joe Biden, Hunter Biden. In 2014-2019, Biden Jr. served on the board of directors of the Burisma Group, the largest private gas company in Ukraine accused of tax evasion, money laundering and theft of government resources. Remarkably, the former Vice President Joseph Biden may well become the main Democrat candidate in the 2020 presidential election. Logically, Hunter is the surest and shortest way to deal with a competitor.

The whole story is very confusing, as there are too many high-ranking politicians and diplomats involved in it, including the former State Department Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Walker, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former US Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Jovanovic, US Chargé d'Affaires to Ukraine Bill Taylor, US Ambassador to the EU Gordon Sondland. National Security Advisor John Bolton, Director for European and Russian affairs at the National Security Council Fiona Hill and Director of National Intelligence Dan Coates.

In general, the analysis of the situation from Trump's perspective shows that the then-US Vice President Joe Biden Sr. applied to Ukrainian authorities in 2016 to dismiss the former Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin, who was investigating the activities of Burisma, promising the continuation of loaning to Ukraine. Biden himself revealed this piece of information  in January 2018 at a public discussion at the Foreign Relations Council. According to Shokin (Fox News refers to the notes of Trump's personal lawyer Rudolph Giuliani, who met with the ex-Prosecutor General in January 2019), the investigation against Burisma was terminated "out of fear of the United States." In the summer of 2015, the American ambassador to Ukraine, Jeffrey Payette, said that the investigation should be dealth with "in white gloves". Shokin resigned in March 2016, accused of not being able to deal with corruption inherited from the former President Viktor Yanukovych.

From Biden's position, the main argument is that there is no direct evidence pointing to Hunter Biden’s connection with the Burisma case. Yuri Lutsenko, who replaced Shokin, says the same adding that Rudolf Giuliani was literally tailing after him trying to persuade Lutsenko to start an investigation against Biden's son, and this was the topic of Trump's conversation with Zelensky. Biden Sr. does not even deny that he insisted on Shokin's resignation but that solely the interests of Kiev guided his decision. As a counterargument, Biden's close associates are wondering what was Trump guided by when, just a week before his conversation with Zelensky, the US administration froze $391 million of military assistance to Kiev already approved by Congress. It is believed that this was the administration's bargaining tool used against the current Ukrainian authorities, although Trump did not mention the fact openly unlike Biden in the case of Shokin.

Trump admitted that he asked to start an investigation against the Bidens with the same goal - to eradicate corruption in Ukraine. He added that China should have carried out a similar investigation against the former Vice President Biden. It is about the Bidens' trip to Beijing in 2013, when Hunter Biden met with local businessmen.

Trump calls the ongoing impeachment campaign a "witch-hunt", "nonsense", "coup d'etat", which can lead to a civil war in the United States. The president also threatened to find out personal information on the whistle-blower and to arrest for high treason Dem. Adam Schiff, the head of the Intelligence Committee of the House of Representatives, who actually leads the investigation as part of the impeachment procedure. By the way, Zelensky himself says that he did not feel pressure from Trump.

Throughout the history of the US, the House of Representatives have impeached only two presidents, who were later acquitted by the Senate: Andrew Johnson in 1868 and Bill Clinton in 1998-1999 for perjury and obstruction of justice in connection with his former assistant Monica Lewinsky. The most famous case, which almost led to impeachment, was the 1974 Watergate scandal, when President Richard Nixon resigned before the matter was considered by the Senate. The impeachment of Trump, if initiated, differs from the above in that neither Johnson, nor Clinton or Nixon claimed to be re-elected. But Trump has already set up his election headquarters, and the US Constitution allows him to take part in the 2020 elections, even if impeachment succeeds. Republicans are confident that the Democratic initiative will only increase the popularity of Trump. At least the flow of donations to the election fund has already grown significantly. As Trump himself put it, "impeachment is clearly not what you want to have in your resume," but "I will make Kevin a speaker", referring to Republican minority leader in the Senate Kevin McCarthy and hinting that Republicans will get the majority in the House of Representatives. Moreover, Trump has a trump card in his hands - growing economic indicators.

Dangerous reality show

Amidst the ongoing events, another Ukrgate actor, Vladimir Zelensky, looks the most affected party. The Ukrainian president will have to decide which side to take: Trump, who will serve as president for more than a year and who has high chances to be re-elected, or Biden and the Democrats in general, who also have chances of success. The signing of the so-called 'Steinmeier formula', which provides for new steps to resolve the conflict in the southeast of Ukraine, soon followed the events around Trump's impeachment. Proposed in 2016 by the then Minister of Foreign Affairs of Germany, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the formula suggests a mechanism for implementing the Minsk agreements on the Donbass. It assumes holding of local elections with the participation of international observers in eastern Ukraine and assigning a special status to Donbass, if the OSCE concludes that the popular vote was free and honest. However, the views of the parties to the conflict on the implementation method of the 'formula' do not coincide. The issue of border control, for example, is of special concern raising many questions and objections of the parties.

The EU and the US have expressed satisfaction that the negotiations on the Donbass have moved off the ground but it seems that Steinmeier’s recipe has divided Ukrainian population into two camps causing protests under the common slogan "No surrender". Protesters are concerned that the decision on the compliance of elections with the legislation will not be made by Ukraine but by the OSCE/ODIHR observation mission, and that the 'special status' of Donbass may become a precedent leading to political separatism. It is also assumed that Steinmeier's formula may compel the seemingly patriotic forces dissatisfied with the incumbent president Zelensky and oligarch Igor Kolomoisky (alleged patron of the president) to take revenge. Thanks to Ukrgate and the signing of the 'Steinmeier formula', Kiev is closely monitored by the world community, including American politicians, European partners, and international organisations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF). By the way, the IMF representative visited Kiev in September, but left without agreement on a new cooperation program, apparently deciding to wait, to take a closer look at next steps of President Zelensky. Certainly, Ukrgate did not add value to the confidence in Ukraine going through difficult negotiations with Moscow, or its image in the international arena. For example, Ukrainians, at least, lost Kurt Walker, who was considered one of the most reliable guides of Ukrainian interests. This is perhaps one of the main consequences of the impeachment campaign launched in Washington.

The American media occasionally raise a doubting voice about the relevance of the campaign, since it undermines the image of the United States as an ally and patron. Foreign partners may now doubt the level of frankness in working and private conversations with American politicians of even the highest level. The Ukrainian president admitted that he did not expect the White House to publish the full transcript of his telephone conversation with Donald Trump, and no one contacted him about this. Certainly, Democrats and Republicans differ in their foreign policy priorities and strategies. However, if the next president resorts to a sharp change of course or allies, or violates the agreements signed by the previous American leader, this may give rise to some nervousness and distrust of Washington as a whole.

Secondly, it seems that the flow of events in the US domestic policy is growing on steroids, although the US election campaign has long been known as an almost uninterrupted (given the elections to the Senate, Congress, interim elections and primaries, etc.) and very scandalous process. In fact, it is a sort of "reality show", where each participant can either be kicked out or get a lucky ticket to heaven. This is a skillful game of incriminating evidence, carefully verified steps, intrigues of various groups and their sponsors, where money, charisma, artistic expressions and compliance with the image of the American Dream play instrumental roles. If we consider the situation without party emotions, it turns out that both Biden and Trump used their official position for personal purposes. The same plot has been used more than once as a basis for various Hollywood films and TV shows, such as the House of Cards. Therefore, it is likely that the preparation for impeachment will further gain momentum in American political establishment. The only subject is concern is that the purely American show is gradually gaining an international dimension.