PROBLEM WITH MANY UNKNOWNS

Discussions on Georgia's possible entry to NATO have intensified again amidst the next phase of confrontation between Tbilisi and Moscow. The West is considering the possibility of Georgia's final inclusion in its geopolitical influence.

Silence about the main thing

The West-Russia antagonism regarding the most relevant international problems is increasingly growing. For obvious reasons, the post-Soviet space is paid a special attention in this confrontation. In early April, NATO made another serious step to drive Russia out of its traditional sphere of influence completely, in particular from the fundamentally significant East European region. This includes the coordination of measures to support Ukraine and Georgia in the Black Sea, including but not limited to the conduct of joint military exercises, strengthening the navy and coast guard of the two republics, and exchange information.

A report published in early October by RAND Corporation also confirmed the West's openly pursued mission of containing Russia in the Black Sea region. It also indicates the need to assist Ukraine and Georgia in developing their defence potentials considering the interests of the US and the West. For example, this summer NATO held military exercises the Sea Breeze 2019 in the Ukrainian part of the Black Sea, as well as multinational military exercises Agile Spirit 2019 in Georgia.

While Ukraine, due to the issues of Crimea and the ongoing confrontation in the Donbass, is in the focus of Western attention, the hype around Georgia's pro-Atlantic aspirations has diminished significantly in recent years amid Tbilisi's attempts to soften, at least partially, its tensions with Moscow. Nevertheless, frequent mutual attacks, including Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili's statement about Russia as "the enemy of Georgia", the recent unrest in Tbilisi when a Russian member of parliament occupied the chair of the speaker of the Georgian parliament during the Orthodox forum, cessation of air traffic between Russia and Georgia followed by an infamous incident when the Georgian media insulted the Russian President Vladimir Putin personally, caused a new round of confrontation between the two countries. Apparently, Euro-Atlantic circles decided to take advantage of this sending a NATO delegation led by the alliance's Deputy Secretary General Rose Gottemoeller to Georgia in early October.

During the visit, the NATO-Georgia commission held a meeting in Batumi and negotiations with Georgian political officials, and made a number of statements regarding the irreversibility of Georgia's course towards integration into the Euro-Atlantic space and NATO's readiness to assist its South Caucasian ally in full. In particular, Rose Gottemoeller announced NATO's intention to improve the Essential package of measures and initiatives provided to Georgia five years ago to strengthen its defence potential. NATO is ready to increase funding to Georgia for defence, which is a part of plan to deepen bilateral cooperation also confirmed at the Batumi meeting of the NATO-Georgia Commission.

Meanwhile, despite NATO's support for Georgia's pro-Western aspirations and its territorial integrity (the alliance calls for the return of Abkhazia and South Ossetia to Tbilisi's control), Brussels does not answer the main question of Georgia about its possible membership in NATO. The NATO leadership regularly declares that the doors of the alliance are open for Georgia, although it still remains silent about the exact dates when Georgia may be assigned full membership. Rose Gottemoeller confirmed NATO's commitment to see Georgia a member of the alliance with the following disclaimer: "there is still much to be done" before this moment but the alliance is ready to work with Tbilisi to achieve the goal.

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who visited Tbilisi immediately after the NATO delegation, did not specify the time Georgia is accepted into the alliance either but supported the official foreign policy course of the country.

Obviously, the main reason why the West and NATO, which has yet to submit the Membership Action Plan (MAP) to Georgia explaining the delay due to insufficient national security reforms, are so cautious is the factor of Russia. Strategy makers of the alliance do understand that Georgia's membership in NATO may inevitability lead to aggravation of relations with Moscow, including the likelihood of a forceful development of events in the Black Sea region, especially given the unresolved Abkhazian and South Ossetian problems.

Still, NATO came up with an idea that combines the possibility of Georgia's early entry into the alliance with a mild reaction from Russia, which, perhaps, make it possible to avoid military scenarios around Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the rebellious Georgian autonomies recognised by Moscow as independent states after the August 2008 war.

Risks without guarantees

Former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, speaking a month ago in Tbilisi at an international conference, called it a big mistake that Georgia did not receive MAP at the Bucharest Summit in 2008. However, the main idea of his address was a proposal to the Georgian political class to discuss the possibility of joining NATO without "applying the fifth paragraph of the NATO Charter in Abkhazia and South Ossetia".

According to the clause, an armed attack on a NATO member country is considered an attack on the alliance as a whole, hence preventing the states with unresolved territorial conflicts from becoming the members of the organisation. Answering a question about the likelihood that Georgians would regard such an approach as "a final loss of the occupied territories," Rasmussen confirmed the level of risk involved in his proposal "but the question is which is more risky - the current situation or the beginning of new discussions about Georgia's future NATO membership."

By the way, this is not the first such initiative. Last year, Luke Coffey of the Washington Heritage Foundation published two reports titled "NATO Membership for Georgia: In U.S. and European Interest" and "How to Admit Georgia to NATO — Without Triggering a War." The titles are quite explicit and contain the same proposal - to reconsider the application of the 5th article of the NATO Charter for Abkhazia and South Ossetia with the aim of accepting Georgia into the alliance as soon as possible.

The reaction of Georgian political forces to the proposal of the former NATO Secretary General was different. Some did not see in it anything contrary to the interests of the country, since the alliance does not offer membership to Georgia without Abkhazia and South Ossetia but only allows for the temporary observance of Article 5 only within the territory of the state controlled by the Georgian government. The other group condemned Rasmussen's initiative arguing that its implementation would mean the final loss of Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region and the recognition of the separation of former autonomies from the Georgian state at international level. Finally, the famous opposition figure Nino Burjanadze suggested that Georgia's membership in NATO is unacceptable since the country would forever lose Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and would become the arena of military confrontation between the West and Russia.

Remarkably, the NATO leadership does not have an official position on the so-called "truncated membership" of Georgia in the alliance. Only the Special Representative of the Secretary General of NATO for the South Caucasus and Central Asia, James Appathurai, responded to Rasmussen's initiative as follows: "I don't think it is the right time to consider this issue. I don't see a desire in NATO to consider this issue and I don't think that this idea was timely in the existing conditions of international security."

Thus, the NATO leadership makes it clear that it sees no reason in a real discussion of the limited relevance of Article 5 to Georgia. Even the recent discussions about the possibility of Georgian membership in NATO confirm that the alliance is not ready for bringing the question for consideration.

Obviously, the West pushes hard on this issue to support Georgia in its confrontation with Russia. The alliance stays committed to a long-term strategy in relation to the post-Soviet space trying to pull it to the West. But, apparently, NATO is not ready for the increased confrontation with Russia over Georgia, and therefore does not want to give Tbilisi any military guarantees, nor to take real actions to restore the territorial integrity of the South Caucasian country.

So, Georgia is in limbo. On the one hand, it outlined the course for joining NATO but on the other, the organization does not specify, due to well-known geopolitical reasons, the probable time for Tbilisi to achieve this goal.

In the meantime, Russia regularly sends explicit messages about its expected reaction if even a single concrete step is taken towards Georgia's integration into the NATO. For example, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, referring to NATO's "obsessively non-stop expansion", explained it as "an attempt to surround Russia with the foes' ring, since Russia is considered NATO's enemy, and to impede the development of Russia." Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev openly warned that Georgia's admission to NATO "could provoke a terrible conflict." In essence, the answer of President Vladimir Putin to the question of a Georgian journalist voiced at the EAEU summit in Yerevan contained a similar context. When asked about Russia's withdrawal of troops from Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Putin replied: "We will when we make such a decision." In other words, Putin made it clear that Moscow's actions will depend on Georgia's geopolitical choice, including its further relations with NATO.