GROWING TENSION IN IRAN

Apparently, the next episode of endless geopolitical confrontation in the Middle East steadily shifts to Iran. In November, the protest movement incited by an almost three-fold increase in the price of gasoline and introduction of quotas mostly hit the central and eastern regions of the country, as well as the cities of Tehran, Tabriz, Isfahan and Ahvaz. According to human rights watch groups, dozens of people died and thousands were injured during the protests. Iranian authorities claim that the situation is under control. Oddly enough, protests, which started in neighbouring Iraq and Libya with slogans against unemployment, crime and corruption, have then turned into demonstrations against Iran.

Another act of drama

Iranian authorities claim that the demonstrations are well-orchestrated by the West, primarily the US and Israel. According to President of Iran, Hassan Rouhani, "protesters were organised, armed, and followed a certain plan of those who, over the past two years, have been introducing maximum sanctions, planning to undermine security in Iran and to take actions against our system...". Adviser to President Rouhani, Hisamuddin Ashna, wrote in his Telegram channel that "opportunists of all stripes" decided to take advantage of the events in the country. However, according to the adviser, they [organisers, R+] did not take into account that "Iran is not Iraq and not Lebanon. The US embassy does not work in Iran. That's why the State Department is not able to organise a revolution in the country directly, dragging the country into chaos and unrest."

Reaction of the US was very quick. "We see the same fight for freedom today. We see it in the people in the Islamic Republic of Iran," US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said as soon as it became known that protest rallies broke out in Tehran on November 15. A few days later Pompeo addressed the protesters in Iran through his Twitter account in Farsi urging them to send photos and videos of protests: "I have asked the Iranian protestors to send us their videos, photos, and information documenting the regime's crackdown on protestors." White House spokesperson Stephanie Grisham emphasized that the US supports peaceful protests of Iranians. The White House also issued a statement saying the protests were spurred by Iran's decision to take funds away from the domestic economy in order to pay for its "fanatical" pursuit of nuclear weapons and to fund terrorist groups across the Middle East.

Since the election of Donald Trump Washington has constantly been advancing the strategy of maximum pressure on Iran and even the possibility of military operations. Last time sudden emotional outburst was recorded after the drones' attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities. Then Riyadh blamed Tehran for the attack, and everyone expected Washington to take appropriate steps, which did not follow, however. In 2018, Trump withdrew the US from the Iranian nuclear deal and resumed sanctions that hit all sectors of the Iranian economy, including energy, metallurgy, petrochemicals, and banking. Iran is a country with huge hydrocarbon reserves but cannot process the necessary amount of oil for domestic needs. Therefore, Iran is extremely dependent on external supplies of fuel. As a result, according to IMF, in 2019, Iran's GDP declined by 9.5%, inflation fluctuates around 35-50%, Iran's national currency devaluated by 70%, prices rose by 75%, the number of foreign investors decreased and unemployment increased.

Iran, go away!

Surprisingly, just in the midst of protests in Iran, The Intercept and The New York Times announced that they had access to several hundred pages of telegrams and reports from Iranian intelligence agents (mainly filed in 2014-2015) operating in Iraq. After the analysis of the documents, the media came to a univocal conclusion: Iran tightly controls Iraq; Iranian agents penetrated into all walks of life in the neighbouring country, including political, social, economic and religious; in southern Iraq, Iran opens religious representations; some influential parties receive support from Iran; Iranian companies build hotels and other facilities in Iraq. According to the documents available in public domain, many Iraqi senior officials, even at the ministerial level, as well as the military and security officials, maintain secret relations with Tehran. Moreover, these include not only Shiites, but also Sunnis and Kurds.

Despite such a seemingly grievous picture of Iraqi statehood drawn by the Western media, Iran, in fact, faced unexpectedly powerful opposition in Iraq. Mass protests, which began in October, have already taken the lives of several hundred people. Having started as a demonstration against unemployment, corruption, and crime, the protest movement soon turned into an event against Iran. Protesters demanded the resignation of Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi, as they believed that he enjoyed the patronage of Tehran and that the Iranians allegedly dissuaded him from resigning. It is reported that in the Iraqi provinces bordering Iran, protesters burn up the offices of Iraqi political parties allegedly supported by Iran and kill leading party members. Shouting Get out of Iraq and Iran, go away, the protesters also burned up the Iranian consulate in Kerbela. At the Tahrir Square of Baghdad, they tear up posters with images of Iranian leaders. They also threw shoes at the portrait of General of the al-Quds Special Forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran, Qassem Soleimani, which is considered an extreme degree of insult.

At the same time, relatively peaceful protests against Iran took place in Lebanon. Lebanese Prime Minister, Saad Hariri, has already resigned. But this move didn't stop the protests due to the worsening economic situation (Lebanon's national debt is one of the largest in the world—$86 billion, which is more than 150% of GDP). Due to the constitutional division of power between Sunnis, Shiites and Christians, the Shiite political military structure of Hezbollah is very influential in Lebanon. Hezbollah actually controls all the security forces in the country and is almost openly subordinate to Iran.

In other words, all protesters in Iraq, Iran and Lebanon have a common feature, which is the dissatisfaction with standards of living and other socio-economic problems. There are a few differences though. In Iraq and Lebanon, protesters inveigh against the presence of Tehran, while Iranian citizens resent authorities wasting the country's potential abroad, which they view as the main cause of difficult economic conditions in Iran. By the way, the leaked intelligence data available to the American media, according to The New York Times, contains clear signs of internal disagreements in Iran. The key figure regularly mentioned in the press is General Qassem Soleimani. It is claimed that his military unit exceeds those of the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and Security in capabilities and power. By the way, Iranian military often accuses Soleimani of wrong actions taken in Iraq, claiming that the hatred of Iraqis for Shiite militia and harsh criticism against Iran for any actions against the Sunnis might reverse the fragile gains achieved in Iraq. Soleimani is also criticised of using the fight against the ISIS for his own political advancement, advertising his leading role in the military campaign in Iraq, and posting his own photos on various websites and social networks.

Four conclusions

Given that the situation in and around Iran, Iraq and Lebanon is far from being satisfactory, one can draw a few interesting conclusions based on the past and present events.

First, for Iran, the expansion of its influence in the Middle East is not only a matter of authority, principle or a result of a fanatical expansionist policy, as presented in the Western media, but also a matter of survival. For its own security, Iran is trying to prevent Iraq from falling apart, especially after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, when the internal processes shaking Iraq could give birth to an independent state of Kurdistan, which could threaten the regional stability and territorial integrity of Iran. Another challenge is to prevent Sunni militants from concentrating near the Iranian border. Being at the crossroads of many states, Iraq is also important for Iran in order to bypass US sanctions. Iran uses the Iraqi land routes to Syria to export Iranian goods, while the oil ports in southern Iraq are used to smuggle fuel. Hence, it is noteworthy that the demonstrators in Iraq try to block access to the ports of Umm Qasr and Khor al-Zubair, which connect the country with the Persian Gulf and have long been used to smuggle Iranian oil despite sanctions. Obviously, there is a direct connection between these events and the increase in fuel prices in Iran.

Secondly, it is worth sifting the actions of Washington through the prism of the US election campaign, which is becoming increasingly attractive. In parallel with analysis of Iran's influence on Iraq, Americans now openly admit that the policy they have pursued in Iraq and the Middle East for years has failed. According to The New York Times, "The notion that the Americans handed control of Iraq to Iran when they invaded now enjoys broad support, even within the US military. A recent two-volume history of the Iraq War, published by the US Army, details the campaign's many missteps and its "staggering cost" in lives and money." The study concludes: "An emboldened and expansionist Iran appears to be the only victor." NYT analyses the situation, admitting that Washington apparently did not have any plan for the period after the invasion: "And the documents show how Iran, at nearly every turn, has outmanoeuvred the US in the contest for influence." Incidentally, even assuming that a Republican President, George W. Bush, initiated the war in Iraq, the major missteps are still associated with the Democratic administration of Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Thirdly, environmental issues become an increasingly attractive topic of discussions within the Western political circles. In this sense, Iran, as well as the entire Middle East region, provides a large array of opportunities. Centre for Strategic International Studies (CSIS) controlled by the US government published a large report on the "components" or "directions" of the protest movement in Iran, underlining environmental issues as one of them. Obviously, this particularly concerns Ahvaz, a city in the southwest of Iran with large metal processing plants and one of the cities with the most polluted air in the world. Also, Iranians drive old cars with low-quality fuel, which also affects the quality of air throughout the country.

Fourthly, significance of the Internet and its regulation in various political processes is growing. Given the ongoing election campaign in the US, Americans are concerned about the political advertising on social networks and the spread of 'deep-fakes'. Iran, however, has successfully tested its own Internet project. How can these events be related even hypothetically? Very simple. On November 6, amidst the protests in Iran, the country suffered from almost complete nationwide Internet blackout. Iranian authorities had previously tried to control or prohibit various social networks and instant messengers, such as Gmail, Instagram, WhatsApp and Facebook, but the disruption of Internet on a large part of the country was something that occurred in Iran for the first time. Meanwhile, Tehran was prepared for the situation thanks to its own internal Internet based on the Chinese model—almost all Iranian online services worked well during the blackout. At the same time, the protests have subsided considerably. This option is definitely not a long-term solution, since disconnecting from the global Internet is still expensive for the national economy. However, the role of the "sovereign Internet" will grow throughout the world with other states studying the Iranian experience and using it for purposes other than counteracting protests. This may be, for example, a desire to hold elections "free from external influence" using the "local Internet" for some time, even in Western countries.

Confrontation between the US and Iran is likely to intensify also due to the expected parliamentary elections next year and presidential elections scheduled for 2021. At the same time, Donald Trump may come up with a new set of unconventional measures against Iran, despite the ongoing impeachment process in the US. But one thing is clear: Tehran will try to take all possible measures to avoid playing the "game" on its territory. That is why we can expect worsening of the situation in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon since stakes in this game rise from one round to another.