TRACECA CARAVAN GOES ON

A new round of negotiations on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was held last month. It ended with a joint statement issued by the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, who called on the parties to take decisive steps to find a compromise.

OSCE saves credibility

The first thing that deserves attention in the context of the Karabakh settlement is the activity of the new chairman of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). Slovak Foreign Minister Miroslav Lajcak, who took up this position in 2019, looks quite enthusiastic in intensifying the OSCE mediation efforts. This was also facilitated by a long-standing discussion within the organisation to eliminate the stagnation in mediation efforts to resolve individual conflicts.

Indeed, OSCE urgently needs to raise the shaken authority, because in recent years the number of conflicts "controlled" by the organisation has grown, while the methods proposed to resolve them seem weak. Having realising all the responsibility, Miroslav Lajcak began to search for the hard paths to establish peace. This also includes the unannounced meeting of the OSCE chairman with the Minsk Group co-chairs. Having discussed with the mediators the prospects for a peaceful solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Lajcak made it clear that Europe was committed to the resolution of the conflict as soon as possible. At the same time, Lajcak has highlighted some key points of the conflict both before his trip to Baku, where he opened the embassy of Slovakia in Azerbaijan, and just before the meeting of the OSCE Council of Foreign Ministers (CFM).

During the CFM meeting in early December, Lajcak noted that, despite the existing negotiations, there is a real threat of escalation of conflict in Karabakh. "The dialogue for conflict resolution continued throughout the year as part of the Minsk Group process, the Geneva discussions and the 5 + 2 format. Using these platforms, we tried to build trust and relieve tension just to maintain dialogue. But if we look through a different plane, the image will be less optimistic," the OSCE chairman said.

The overall outcome of the negotiation year was summed up in a joint statement made by the co-chairing countries. They reiterated the decisiveness of their mediation efforts and thanked the parties for making full use of direct communications to reduce the risk of escalation.

At the same time, the co-chairs urged the parties to take concrete steps to implement the previously reached agreements and reiterated that the status quo was unacceptable. "We urge the parties to conduct substantive negotiations without artificial delays or conditions," the joint statement said.

The above statement of the co-chairs practically coincides with the Azerbaijani position on the conflict, when Baku has been calling Yerevan for substantive negotiations for many years. During this time, according to the Azerbaijani minister, the word "substantive" has become his favourite. Fortunately, the efforts of Azerbaijani diplomacy have been conclusive, and today the international community tends to consider the settlement in the context of specific stages.

Long road in the dunes

Foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia Elmar Mammadyarov and Zohrab Mnatsakanyan held another meeting with the participation of the Minsk Group co-chairs as part of the OSCE CFM discussions. After more than three hours of discussions, Mr. Mammadyarov admitted that it was a "difficult one". The subject of negotiations, like many of the previous ones, was a common approach to resolving the conflict, which is different between the parties to some extent. The Madrid principles based on a phased settlement of the conflict require a determination of the order of stages and the actions of the parties within each of them. That is why Azerbaijan demands substantive negotiations, which in other words mean a transition from a diplomatic language to a substantive conversation. The Armenian side is more inclined to drag out the status quo in the conflict zone, diverting attention from the subject of negotiations to related elements. Contrary to the principles worked out jointly with international mediators, Yerevan is insisting on the immediate determination of the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, including the holding of a referendum, as well as mandatory security guarantees as soon as the occupied territories around the region are freed.

Reciprocal contacts

An important component of the peaceful settlement of the conflict is humanitarian issues. Since it is no secret that the Azerbaijani population of Nagorno-Karabakh has been expelled during the conflict, any peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia must provide terms for the return of internally displaced persons. This urges for a dialogue between the peoples of both parties to the conflict, specifically between the Azerbaijani and Armenian communities of Karabakh.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov hinted at the importance of such contacts during his visit to Baku. According to the Russian minister, Russia has initiated the mutual visits of Armenian and Azerbaijani journalists. These visits were generally positive and established a reliable foundation for further contacts.

"I support contacts between the communities. The more is the communication, the more fundamental the agreements will become. As a result, the entire population of Karabakh must make a decision about their future," S. Lavrov said.

According to the initiators, mutual visits and enhanced communications are designed to eliminate the misunderstanding of the elites about ways of peaceful coexistence in the future. But how these efforts are viewed in Baku and Yerevan remains a subject of controversy and a rather delicate matter.

One of the problems in this context is attempts to represent the Armenian community of Nagorno-Karabakh as the "people" of Nagorno-Karabakh. "Attempts to present the Armenian community as the "people of Nagorno-Karabakh" deny the existence of the Azerbaijani community. In recent years, the Armenian leadership, having resorted to provocative statements and steps, has consistently tried to disrupt the settlement process. The statement made by the Prime Minister of Armenia "Karabakh is Armenia. Period." contradicts the concept of a peaceful settlement and should be strongly condemned," Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov said.

As practice shows, if Baku remains committed to the goals set within the framework of mutual contacts, then the representatives of Yerevan try to use every opportunity for provocations. For example, Armen Simonyan, Deputy Minister of Territorial Administration and Infrastructure of Armenia, who recently took part at a meeting of the Intergovernmental Commission of the Europe-Caucasus-Asia International Transport Corridor (TRACECA) in Baku, expressed his dissatisfaction with the participants attending the Alley of Honour.

As a result, one of the organizers of the meeting, Minister of Economy of Azerbaijan Mikail Jabbarov was forced to point out the inappropriateness of the statement of the Armenian official. Minister Jabbarov recalled that the TRACECA project became possible 20 years ago also thanks to the active efforts of the late President of Azerbaijan, Heydar Aliyev, who is resting in the Alley of Honour as well. "The cultural program for the anniversary event proceeds from absolutely understandable aspects of relations accepted in any civilized society," Jabbarov said.

The minister asked the Armenian delegation to recall the monument erected in the centre of Yerevan to Garegin Ter-Harutyunyan, who served with the German fascists under the nickname Garegin Nzhdeh. "Next year will mark the 75th anniversary of the Victory over fascism. Once again think about whether you are erecting monuments to the right people. And for you personally, we have an individual cultural program," Minister Jabbarov said.

As an alternative cultural program, Jabbarov invited the Armenian delegation to visit the Heydar Aliyev Center in Baku, which displays an exhibition on the history of the capital of present-day Armenia. "It was kindly provided to us by our colleagues from the Georgian Museum. Believe me, you will learn many new things that you cannot read about the history of the Irevan khanate, the history of Irevan (Yerevan). But this is only if you are interested. As for the TRACECA caravan, it will go forward, despite all attempts against it," Jabbarov added.

He emphasized that he well understands the reaction of the representatives of Armenia, who "came from Yerevan to Baku and see Baku with their own eyes. I understand that it is not so easy to realise what you see here," Jabbarov said.

At the same time, he called on the Armenian side to take a constructive approach. "We know that the destructive approach is simpler, more destructive, and, unfortunately, the results of this destructive policy are visible in the neighbouring country, which is isolated from a large number of projects, and it has driven itself into the transport and economic impasse in which it is now is located and, apparently, does not want to get out," Azerbaijani minister said.

Populism as a trend

New Armenian elite does not stop provocations in the information space having realised the irreversibility of the growing influence of Azerbaijan thanks to the ongoing reforms and development of the country.

Continuing the populist rhetoric of her husband, the wife of the Prime Minister of Armenia and the well-known journalist Anna Hakobyan has further exacerbated the situation. Commenting on the absolutely harmless and completely natural statement of the First Vice President of Azerbaijan Mehriban Aliyeva about her dream of "listening to the mugam in Karabakh", Hakobyan made provocative attacks. "I want to invite Mehriban Aliyeva to Karabakh. She may be our guest, we know how to receive guests," A. Hakobyan said pretending to be the only guardian of humanity.

Inviting one of the leaders of the state to the part of her own country occupied by Armenia is nonsense and an act of unparalleled arrogance. It is possible that the world community could have been deceived by this supposedly "peaceful statement" if Hakobyan herself did not reveal all the cards. "If they start a war, then they will probably have new territories where listening to mugham will become a dream," Hakobyan said pointing out that Azerbaijanis can visit Nagorno-Karabakh only as guests.

In fact, the irony of the spouse of the Armenian leader is nothing but the recognition of defeat in the diplomatic field. Her husband's efforts to prevent a graduate of the Baku Higher Military School from appearing at the head of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and then futile attempts to whitewash Hitler's henchman Garegin Nzhdeh, showed the failure of the ambitions of the Armenian leaders. After all, it is impossible to believe "long-suffering" when the policy of the declared "weak" is aimed at confrontation with all its neighbors.

At a meeting with President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated the harmfulness of populism for Armenia. "I absolutely support your thesis that rhetoric should be avoided here, which runs counter to the fundamental principles approved by both parties and included in the UN Charter and the Helsinki Final Act," the Russian Foreign Minister said.

By the way, contrary to the objections of Yerevan, the military-technical cooperation between Azerbaijan and Russia continues. Last month, Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan requested the CSTO partners not to sell weapons to Azerbaijan in order to avoid a possible escalation in the Karabakh conflict zone. The response to the objection of the Armenian prime minister came from Sergei Lavrov: "I can only emphasise that military-technical cooperation is one of the important areas of our strategic partnership with Azerbaijan. We are developing it absolutely transparently in full compliance with international law, the laws of Azerbaijan and the Russian Federation, as well as taking full account of the balance that has developed in this region and which is important in order to maintain stability there," Sergey Lavrov said in Baku.

Meanwhile, in recent years, Armenian media and political circles circle information actually coming from Swedish military-analytical sources about the alleged plan of the Turkish General Staff to airstrike targets in Armenia. Moreover, according to Armenian strategists, NATO and Russia should assess the plan. But they are in no hurry, for it is clear that by raising threats against neighbours and threatening to strike at pipelines and other strategic infrastructure, Armenia can easily become the object of preventive action.

Commenting on the latest fake news, political scientist Rasim Musabekov noted: " Armenian military and politicians should assess all the risks of their own policy of territorial claims and hostility towards neighbours, and instead of fears and threats, they will have proposals from their neighbours proposals for cooperation and joint security."

In the age of information technology, Armenian journalists should know that it is impossible to hide the truth. Belligerent statements threatening to seize new regions of Azerbaijan are targeting the internal audience, but through the media, they become the property of the world community. It is funny that as a result, the leaders of Armenia media began to clearly lose to Azerbaijan in the international information arena.

Either way, new Armenian administration had enough time to reflect. Proposals for peace and cooperation are already on the negotiating table. They can be discussed in detail already at the next negotiations announced early next year between the foreign ministers of the two countries.