IRAN: CONSERVATIVES ON A ROLL AGAIN

On February 21, parliamentary elections took place in the Islamic Republic of Iran. They largely determine the further development of political processes in and around Iran.

Elections under sanctions

The processes taking place outside the country have a significant impact on the situation within. For example, the US sanction play the role of an invisible player in all domestic political processes in the Islamic Republic. Indeed, most observers agree that if it were not for Washington’s withdrawal from the "nuclear deal" and the subsequent sanctions that negatively affected the Iran's socio-economic situation, the positions of supporters of the incumbent president Rouhani, moderate and reformist forces, would be more stable. Their rivals from the conservative and ultra-conservative political wing, criticizing the actions of the authorities, look preferable. Critics of the authorities exploit mainly the factor of public dissatisfaction with economic policy.

Opinion polls suggest that public discontent is rooted mainly in the unresolved economic problems. In November 2019, the authorities used force against participants in nationwide street protests. On the one hand, the incident undermined the credibility of the reformers, and on the other, reduced the interest of many Iranians in the elections.

The good and the bad of low turnout

Even before the election, many observers predicted the lowest turnout in the history of elections in İran. They claim that the Guardian Council of the Constitution (GCC) did everything to demotivate the voters. According to the report of the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) published in early January, 49% of Tehran residents are not going to vote. And 26.5% of respondents said that they would go to the polls only if the GCC approved their nominees as candidates.

Meanwhile, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said low voter turnout would be good for Trump’s economic sanctions. And senior Iranian officials flooded the media with appeals that no matter what caused the boycott of the elections - indifference or protest, this would only push Trump to strengthen economic sanctions against Tehran.

Washington reacted to the above statements shortly after. On the eve of election day, the United States announced sanctions against five GCC members, accusing it of manipulating the elections.

Reformers overboard

Unprecedented for Iran, GCC has updated the list of candidates for the current election campaign. More than a third of the 14,500 candidates, including an unprecedented number of current parliamentarians (90) have been disqualified. Moreover, even many former high-ranking officials were unable to register their candidacies for elections, including Ali Motahari, former deputy speaker of parliament. Even the head of parliament, Ali Larijani, admitted that some of the candidates were disqualified on the grounds that they did not demonstrate "practical commitment to the Islamic Republic." He stated that he had worked with a number of individuals in recent years and did not notice a lack of loyalty to the regime. Larijani himself, who had been the speaker of the Iranian parliament for twelve years, announced at the end of November that he would no longer run for the post.

Since the reformists and their supporters were practically not given competitive opportunities to compete for seats in parliament, conservatives and ultra-conservatives participated in the elections almost on win-win conditions.

Many Iranians believe that elections are a real chance for conservatives - known as "fundamentalists" - to strengthen their power by taking control of this country's political institution.

The previous parliament was elected in 2016, when the United States lifted sanctions under a nuclear deal. Many Iranians then believed that they were emerging from international isolation, and relied on supporters of the current Iranian president. As a result, reformists, moderate and other centrist candidates, usually associated with Rouhani and his government, gained a dominant position in it.

The significance of parliament in the political system of Iran lies in the fact that it develops legislation and approves the state budget. And although the ultimate authority belongs to the higher clergy, parliament can assist or, conversely, interfere with the president’s policies. However, over the past years, the parliament has not been able to do much to meet the needs of ordinary Iranians, who are disappointed with rising costs, high unemployment, and increasingly harsh authorities. And in the new conditions, Iranians do not hope that the new parliament can solve their urgent problems.

New trend in Iranian politics

As expected, the results of the parliamentary elections were clearly disappointing for the reformers and moderate politicians. The number of their supporters was much lower than those of conservative candidates. But can the election results be called the unconditional victory of the conservatives?

Iranian Minister of Internal Affairs of Iran (the ministry is responsible for conducting electoral campaigns), Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, said that 42.57% of the total number of voters voted in the elections. This was the lowest rate of participation in parliamentary elections since the victory of the Islamic Revolution in 1979. In addition, turnout has never been lower than 50%. This makes 24.5 million Iranians, while the total number of Iranian citizens with the right to vote is 57.9 million, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Thus, the actual support by the electorate, as well as the winning candidates, was extremely low, which reduces the political rating of the deputy corps.

Commenting on the vote, President Hassan Rouhani tried to soften the outcome with the following statement: “From the moment the eleventh convocation parliament opens, you will represent not only 42% of the voters, but the entire Iranian nation.” Perhaps this was done in order to maintain a dialogue with parliament, in which the majority will be critical of the current government.

In fact, few people doubted that the conservatives prevail in Iran and beyond. Although at the time of writing, the official results of the vote have not yet been announced, the Iranian media reported that the conservatives got 191 seats out of 290 deputy mandates. 16 seats went to reformers, and 24 to independent candidates. Thus, the fate of 241 seats was determined. The future of 49 more seats will be known in the second round on April 17.

In the new convocation of parliament, reformists and 35 independent candidates will take only 20 seats. Religious minorities, including Zoroastrians, Assyrians, Orthodox Chaldeans, Orthodox Armenians and Jews will be represented by one deputy.

Obviously, the elections will go down in history with the crushing defeat of the reformers and the unconditional victory of conservatives. However, the conservative revenge amidst the low voter turnout demonstrates only the weak faith of voters in the effectiveness of the country's political system.

Although conservatives received all 30 seats in Tehran with the ex-mayor of Tehran, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (former general of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), getting the most votes, the turnout in the capital was the smallest—about 26%.

Under these conditions, we can assume that the protest activity in the country will not subside and primarily directed against the office of Rouhani, who will now be criticised by both the protesters and the parliament.

For conservatives and personally for Ghalibaf, the situation means the possibility of revenge for the defeats of previous years. After all, it was Ghalibaf who was considered as the main rival of the current Iranian president in the previous presidential election. Although he is expected to be the next speaker of the Iranian parliament, Ghalibaf has clear chances to compete for the first post in the executive branch of Iran in the next year’s presidential elections.

Whether he seizes this opportunity and the development of events in the neighboring country does not depend on the will of Iranian voters now.