AFTERMATH OF ARMENIAN REVOLUTION

The coronavirus pandemic halted political processes in many countries, but in Armenia, where passions still run high. Local revolutionary authorities announced the resumption of the investigation of the so-called "offshore case."

Failure of top authorities

The scandal has been known since 2009. One of the Armenian tycoons, Pailak Harutyunyan, claimed that he was invited to a meeting with the then Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan. They discussed the development of diamond cutting and jewelry business in Armenia, which the Armenian government considered a perspective industry and hoped that it would be a driving force of the national economy. In addition, another businessman, Ashot Sukiasyan, Archbishop Navasard Kchoyan and a dozen businessmen were also present in the prime minister’s office. Prime Minister drew the brightest prospects for the participants. Then, Ashot Sukiasyan took the floor and focused on details of the plan: he said that in African Sierra Leone, he had diamond and gold mines and was ready to supply raw materials to Armenian cutting enterprises for pennies. The only condition was that he needed $12 million investment to purchase equipment and machinery. Pailak Harutyunyan figured immediately that it was a chance of his life, and mortgaged his property in the bank, received a loan and transferred the money to Sukiasyan...

Sukiasyan received the money and... disappeared. But before that, he registered an offshore company on the account holding the money. Among the founders were Tigran Sargsyan and Archbishop Navasard Kchoyan. Then Sukiasyan was caught in Georgia. After the arrest, he assured everyone that he had included Sargsyan and Kchoyan among the founders even without letting them know... Soon the scandal was over, but now the Yerevan elite recalled it again.

Oldie but a goodie

Resuscitation of the “offshore case” provides, of course, a fair amount of food for thought. Tigran Sargsyan managed to work as chairman of the EAEU College. Today he is deputy chairman of the Eurasian Development Bank and, according to rumors, even enjoys the favor of the Kremlin. All this looks like a remake of the scandalous event staged by Yerevan to hit the then CSTO Secretary General Yuri Khachaturov. Also, the name of Archbishop Kchoyan resurfaced immediately during the investigation after the Catholicos Garegin II called for the release of the second Armenian President Robert Kocharian. The latter, experts say, is the most dangerous political opponent of the current prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan.

Perhaps the Yerevan newspaper Irates provided the most revealing assessment of the event. Authors believe that Pashinyan is in a stalemate - he is rapidly losing control. According to the newspaper, there is a catastrophic situation in the regions of Armenia and people simply have nothing to live on, the country is already balancing on the verge of economic collapse and social riots. In addition, after the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, it will be necessary to return to the topic of the referendum launched by Pashinyan in order to take control of the Constitutional Court of Armenia. Irates writes that for this reason Pashinyan began a new show and a crusade against the Armenian Apostolic Church and the Catholicos, so that the Poghos had no shortage of shows in the foreseeable future.

Let’s explain. The popular name Poghos is used in Armenia to mean ordinary people with a  reference to the supporters of Pashinyan. A sensational article published on 7or.am provides a whipping yet politically intolerant characterization: “Armenia is ruled by rednecks. This is a group of people from the village, who failed to socialise in the capital. A group of sweat-smelling people, who don’t spend a dime on hygiene and walk unshaven; who emerged from nowhere in the days of the revolution and began to block the streets to enjoy cooking shashlyk.”

Promises, promises...

One can agree or disagree with this position. But it’s much more difficult to challenge the other: today, two years after the victory of the “shashlyk revolution”, Pashinyan, in fact, has nothing to present to his voters. Among his pretentious pledges were taking Armenia out of Russian influence, rapprochement with the USA and the European Union, economic growth, and success (in the Armenian style) in the Karabakh direction. He also promised to fight against corruption using the funds confiscated from corrupt officials and to take this money back to the budget…

After two years, these promises cause only a grin. Pashinyan and his Soros team managed, it would seem, incomparable: hopelessly ruining relations with Moscow and the West at the same time. Russia forgave Pashinyan neither for his Soros personnel nor for bullying Khachaturov, nor for the talks about the “legitimity” of Armenia and hints of leaving the CSTO and EAEU. In the West, Armenia is considered an outpost of Russia. Moreover, in the US, Pashinyan was not forgiven for sending Armenian sappers trained by Americans to Syria as part of the Russian military mission. In terms of economic ‘achievements’, Nikol Pashinyan is diligently trying to portray stunning successes, but in reality they turn out, at best, to have not come true.

Hrant Bagratyan, the former Prime Minister of Armenia, commenting on Pashinyan’s next statement about the budget that has allegedly grown by a billion dollars, said: “We are dealing with complete disinformation.” Failure is even observed in such areas as the fight against corruption. Pashinyan’s team is unable to hold corrupt officials, including such sensational figures as Manvel Grigoryan, to responsible for their acts. The new investigation of the “March 1 Case” ended in complete failure, where Pashinyan had seemingly “concrete” arguments. There is a failure even in human rights and democracy issues: Armenia is severely criticized for Pashinyan’s attempts to subjugate the country's judicial authorities.

Failures on all fronts

Armenia is rapidly and obviously losing to Azerbaijan, and in all directions. One can still argue the success of the brilliant Gizilgaya-Gunnyut operation of the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan, which was a "logistic catastrophe" for Armenia. Pashinyan or his predecessors should be held accountable for this defeat of Yerevan, but this is far from the only failure. The offensive diplomacy of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at the CIS summit and the meeting of the Valdai Forum is a striking but not the only example. The reaction of the world community to the so-called “elections” in the occupied Karabakh is well known: the OSCE, NATO, EU, many states from Norway and the UK to Turkey, did not recognise the outcome of the event... But, perhaps, the most scandalous and spectacular was Pashinian’s failure at the Munich debates. In his debates with the Azerbaijani president, Pashinian and Aliyev exposed the difference of their personal qualities as leaders, the level of English proficiency, and, most importantly, the convincing position of Azerbaijan based on international law and UN Security Council resolutions. At the same time, confusing statements by Pashinyan, who understood that his country simply did not have such a position that could be declared outside of Armenia. Even an experienced politician, not to mention Pashinyan, would be difficult to get out of such a situation.

We can discuss for a long time how the Armenian prime minister will behave now and whether he will try to “crush” his political opponents. Moreover, since January, the newborn "guardians of the revolution" have declared themselves in Armenia, claiming that they are ready for physical reprisals against opponents of the revolutionary prime minister.

Once again, Armenia demonstrated the danger of a “revolutionary” scenario, which, as practice shows, is more likely to be a sort of political “roulette”, and not the keys to paradise.