WAR OF SHADOWS

Six months passed before the United Nations expressed its attitude to the murder of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani at the Baghdad Airport. A new report by the UN Special Rapporteur Agnes Callamard indicates that the Jan. 3 drone strike in Baghdad was “the first known incident in which a nation invoked self-defense as a justification for an attack against a state actor in the territory of a third country.”

The report also notes that the assassination of General Soleimani and ten other people, including five Iraqis, was "illegal." And there is no evidence to support the threat that the Iranian security official allegedly posed on the US national security. Callamard called the special operation to assassinate Soleimani a violation of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Iraq without the consent of Baghdad.

Among other things, the UN report can be considered clear evidence that tensions between the US and Iran exist even six months after the assassination of General Soleimani. By the way, in late June, Iranian authorities sent an appeal to Interpol to arrest 36 people, including the US President Donald Trump. Interpol rejected the appeal on the grounds that its charter does not allow accepting any requests for the arrest of a US president.

Face to face

The US military facilities in Iraq were rocket fired about 20 times at various times. Apart from the attacks on American military bases in Iraq on January 8 as a retaliatory measure undertaken by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) in response to the assassination of Soleimani, there was no direct confrontation between Iran and the US in Iraq.

Currently, neither the US nor Israel, as its ally in the region, will dare attack Iran directly, even after a recent interview of the US Special Envoy for Iran, Brian Hook, with the Israeli television. He stated that “the military option is always on the table” to prevent the development of nuclear weapons in Iran. In addition to the presidential campaign ongoing in the US, President Trump will not declare war on Iran also because of the COVID-19 pandemic raging in his own country and the protests against racism. Also, as far as we can read from the recently published book of Mr. Trump’s National Security Adviser, John Bolton, the president has no plans for a direct military invasion of Iran. Washington remains committed to its long-standing policy of overthrowing the Iranian leadership through economic embargoes and sanctions. And it seems that this tactic is quite effective.

The sudden surge of the exchange rate of American dollar to 22,000 Iranian tumans in the first week of July caused a serious stir in Iran. This happened despite the assurances of Iranian Vice President Ishaq Jahangiri, who earlier said that Iran continues to export oil contrary to the US sanctions. Jahangiri claims that Tehran can sell oil today at the level of 900K barrels per day set for Iran during previous embargoes. In June, Iran launched a new pipeline to transport its oil directly to the southern borders of the country, that is to the Gulf of Oman. Thus, Iran will be able to bring its main export product to world markets, bypassing the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. On the one hand, this reduces the risks associated with the sale of Iranian energy resources, and on the other, it confirms that Tehran continues to sell oil in large volumes, having failed to completely get rid of oil dependence.

Mysterious explosions

On the contrary, the events of recent days clearly show that the invisible and clandestine war between Iran and its rivals continues. It is reported that several mysterious explosions took place in Iran in late June-early July. Although none of these events has been officially declared as a terrorist acts, speculations around the incidents are ongoing.

The first incident occurred on the night of June 25th. Farnaz Fassihi of The New York Times reported on social networks that the explosion took place at one of Iran’s main nuclear power facilities in Parchin. The Persian service of Radio Liberty reported that the accident occurred in Khojir, in one of the suburbs of Tehran near Parchin, where Iran’s ballistic missile programs had previously been developed. Khojir is also considered a centre for the production of solid fuels for the Shahid Bagheri missiles.

According to official sources, a container with technical gas exploded at one of the facilities of the Iranian Ministry of Defense in Parchin.

The second incident took place several hours after the explosion in Khojir. It has been reported that the explosion at the main power generator of Shiraz in the Fars province caused a blackout in half of the city.

A third explosion occurred on June 30 at the Sina Atar hospital in Tehran. According to official report, the explosion of three oxygen cylinders in the operating room of the hospital claimed the lives of 19 people, injuring five more.

Finally, the fourth incident was a fire at the Iranian nuclear facility in Natanz on July 2. Behrouz  Kamalvandi, a spokesman for the Iranian Atomic Energy Organisation, admitted that the fire caused serious damage to the infrastructure of the nuclear plant. However, no one was injured in the incident, and no leaks of nuclear or other radioactive material were recorded.

Later, experts suggested that all these incidents could be provocative. Although it is highly likely that the main cause of two of the four incidents were technical failures, it is assumed that the other two emergencies in Khojir (Parchin) and Natanz could have been pre-planned. There are at least several versions of the events.

Who's to blame?

Although the Iranian government has not yet made an official statement, experts indicate to a number of factors that hint at the planned nature of the incidents. First, Iran’s official news agency, IRNA, named the US or Israel behind the explosions. Spokesman for the High Council for National Security of Iran, Keivan Khosravi, said that although the cause of the incident has been established, an official statement will be made later for security reasons.

Natanz is Iran’s largest nuclear power plant. It was at Natanz that Iranian specialists managed to enrich uranium up to 20% in 2010.

Another major nuclear facility of Iran is the Parchin underground centre, which has been out of focus after the Natanz incident. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) accused the Iranian authorities of conducting nuclear tests in Parchin and attempting to create a nuclear warhead.

Both the local and foreign media outlets suggest several versions of the recent incidents in Iran. The first version is based on the possibility of a planned explosion. It was first voiced by The New York Times referring to its sources in the intelligence community. NYT claims the hand of Israeli intelligence behind the bombing in Natanz, saying that this version of event was also confirmed by the IRGC representative, who allegedly made a statement for the newspaper. According to the Persian service of Radio Liberty, the explosion in Natanz was a provocation attempted by the armed opposition group Cheetahs of the Homeland.

According to the second version, the incident in Natanz was a result of a cyber attack. This was reported to Reuters by three Iranian officials. A similar event occurred in Iran several years ago, when a computer virus, Stuxnet claimed to have been developed in the US and Israel in 2010, hit Iran’s nuclear plants in Bushehr and Natanz. The virus also caused serious damage to Iran’s nuclear programs, halting the uranium enrichment centrifuges and setting back the development of the program for several years.

It is argued that unlike other viruses, Stuxnet can access computers even not connected to the Internet or local networks, for example, via memory cards. Discovered in 2009, Stuxnet was described as the world's first cyber weapon. It is believed that the virus originated from one of the computers of Russian specialists working at the plant back then. The malware infected another 30,000 computers around the world, freezing the Bushehr nuclear plant for several years.

The third version is air strikes at nuclear power plants. The first assumption appeared on a Russian website avia.pro, which claimed that the Russian radar station Konteyner spotted “unknown aircraft that attacked Iran from Azerbaijan’s airspace”. The Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan immediately denied the report, saying that the message was deliberately distributed by pro-Armenian forces, and are ungrounded and false. Azerbaijani airspace has never been and will not be used for attacks on Iran, the ministry underlined.

According to a tweet shared by an Israeli analyst Edi Cohen, it was the Israeli army behind the "bombing" of the Natanz plant. However, Israeli sources this allegation. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he would not respond to such allegations.

In his interview with one of the local radio stations, Israeli Defense Minister Benny Ganz said that “not every event that happens in Iran is necessarily related to [Israel]”. “We continue to act on all fronts to reduce the possibility that Iran will become a nuclear power – and we will continue to do this as part of protecting our security. A nuclear Iran is a threat to the world and the region, as well as a threat to Israel. And we will do everything to prevent that [threat] from happening,” Gantz added. US Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook announced that military intervention in Iran is still a valid option.

Either way, Israel and the US are very concerned about the resumption of Iran’s nuclear program in Parchin and Natanz. It became known that President Trump announced three years ago that he would support Netanyahu if he hit Iran. In this sense, it is very likely that the purpose of explosions in Parchin and Natanz was to suspend Iran’s nuclear program. By the way, according to some reports, the explosions caused serious damage to the Iranian nuclear program and could slow it down for several years.

There are three main versions of events. The first is the bombing of the base, the second is air strikes, and the third is an explosion as a result of a cyber attack. Cyberattacks are unlikely, since they could not cause such a powerful fire at a construction site. Moreover, after the Stuxnet incident, Iranians have undoubtedly strengthened the protection of their facilities from similar attacks.

As for air strikes, it was possible but was more risky and problematic, because the flight to Isfahan (Natanz is 400 km south of Tehran) is a long and dangerous trip entailing a risk of being shot down. Moreover, this might jeopardise the interests of the country over which the aircraft was flying.

So, we have the remaining third version - pre-planned explosion. It looks most likely, given that the event occurred at a construction site with a huge number of steel structures that could contribute to the penetration of intruders into the territory of the nuclear site. These could be Baluchi groups from Sistan and Balochistan, Arab armed groups in Ahwaz or even the Kurds. According to Radio Liberty, it could also be anti-government armed groups. These were probably armed sabotage groups working for foreign intelligence.

Several years ago, Arab leaders opposing Iran also stated that the main weapon of the war against Tehran could be the support of certain groups within the country. Indeed, one could notice that the activities of such groups in and around Iran has intensified. The explosion caused by one of such groups is considered the most likely version of the event. In addition, recent military operations by the Iranian military in the areas mostly populated by the Kurdish, as well as attacks in Balochistan hint that there is a high risk of mobility and the threat of opposition militias in these areas.

Currently, the attention of the whole world and President Trump, in particular, is focused on solving completely different yet urgent issues. Nevertheless, tensions with Iran are ongoing. The war of shadows continues, and this process covers the entire Middle East.