DÉJÀ VU, OR FASHION FOR REVOLUTION

Rapidly developing events in the zone of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict almost leave in the shadows many processes unfolding in the post-Soviet space and in the world. However, the situation in Kyrgyzstan, which looks like yet another "revolution", could not remain unnoticed.

Kyrgyzstan is a friendly country to Azerbaijan, a member of the Cooperation Council of Turkic Speaking States (CCTS) currently chaired by Azerbaijan. Therefore, Baku is not indifferent to the future of this country, which is going through difficult times today.

Reasons for current protests

The main reason for protests, which began on the Ala-Too Square of the capital city of Bishkek, was the demands to annul the results of parliamentary elections held on October 4. According to results of the vote, 4 of 12 parties were elected to the parliament. On the evening of October 5, protests escalated into clashes between demonstrators and security services. By the morning of October 6, protesters occupied the government building, which houses the president's office, parliament, government, and the secret service. Former President Almazbek Atambayev and former Prime Minister Sapar Isakov, charged with corruption, were released from custody. On the same day, President Sooronbai Jeenbekov announced an attempt to illegally seize power and called on the Central Elections Commission of Kyrgyzstan (CEC) to investigate possible facts of election violations and, if necessary, annul the results. Some time later, the CEC of Kyrgyzstan declared the elections invalid.

Incidentally, Kyrgyzstan already experienced something similar back in 2005, when President Askar Akayev was ousted and later moved to Russia. A similar thing happened in 2010, when Kurmanbek Bakiev lost his presidency and then found refuge in Belarus.

The rapidly developing events led to the resignation of Prime Minister Kubatbek Boronov and the Speaker of the Parliament Dastanbek Jumabekov on the second day of protests. They were replaced by Sadyr Japarov, who was released from the prison on October 6, and Myktybek Abdyldaev, a deputy from the Bir Bol parliamentary faction.

According to the legislation, CEC must set the date for new parliamentary elections within two weeks. At the same time, opposition politicians are already demanding the resignation of President S. Jeenbekov. The latter declares that he is ready for negotiations and continues to be a legitimate president. And in such conditions, undoubtedly, the further development of events in Kyrgyzstan depends on whether the opposition and the authorities come to a compromise.

Protests amid deteriorating socio-economic conditions

Many see the reason for the current wave of protests in the sharply deteriorating socio-economic situation in Kyrgyzstan amid the coronavirus pandemic. Thus, during the last eight months the Kyrgyz GDP fell by almost 6%. The most labor-intensive areas of the national economy, including the services and construction are declining (by 10%). On the contrary, before the pandemic, these sectors would always close the fiscal year with positive indicators. However, due to quarantine, restaurants and hotels have been almost closed for about six months. The construction sector is seriously affected by the inflow of migrant remittances. A third of this money was spent on buying apartments. Now the construction business is experiencing a decline in sales. All this has a direct impact on the occupancy of the state treasury. In addition, the Ministry of Economy added that they noted a decrease in demand for Kyrgyz goods. The reason is the same - the decline in business activity in partner countries.

The employment service of Kyrgyzstan reports about 100,000 officially registered unemployed in the country, while independent experts believe that their real number is much higher.

The situation directly affected the protest activity of political parties. According to the Kyrgyz CEC, out of 1,918 deputy candidates, every third has no job. Most of the unemployed are in the Meken Yntymagy party (71%). The Republic Party holds the second place with more than half of the members unemployed. Ata Meken closes the top three.

Delaying protest actions threatens even greater problems for the country's economy. The leaders of large business associations appealed to the authorities with a demand to resume the activity of the ‘circulatory’ system of the economy, which stopped due to protests. The appeal, in particular, contains the following requirements: to restore the operation of commercial banks and transactions of the banking system; to ensure the full operation of the tax service, the Social Fund and other state bodies regulating entrepreneurial activity; to ensure the protection and vital functions of strategically important objects and business entities throughout the republic.

There is no apparent external influence in the current protests

According to expert estimates, the ruling party could not avoid the temptation to use  administrative resources. Another party, allied with the ruling party, has even was observed buying the votes. At the same time, the irresponsibility of the leaders of other parties that could not enter the parliament is obvious. They called on the people to take to the streets but failed to forestall the riots and chaos in their ranks, which resulted in riots and pogroms of administrative buildings. At the same time, there is no obvious external influence.

On the other hand, it is clear that the nominees of the old elite, taking advantage of the situation, are trying to again be represented in power. They are trying to form a government where there could be persons expressing the interests of A. Atambayev, S. Isakov and others. However, the representatives of the informal wing of protests do not agree with this. For example, several youth groups held a meeting demanding lustration and called on people trying to form a new government to include more youth in the decision-making process.

Nobody knows what the new government will be like. But political parties have already joined the struggle. The heads of several opposition parliamentary parties in Kyrgyzstan created two popular coordinating councils at once. Their members do not recognize the prime minister proposed by the country's parliament and want to elect a government of popular confidence.

One council included the Chon Kazat party led by Maksat Mamytkanov, Ordo led by Mirbek Miyarov, Meken Yntymagy led by Temirbek Asanbekov, as well as a member of the Reform Party, Urmat Janybaev and Chingiz Makeshev from Yiman Nuru Party.

Another council was formed by parties Respublika, Ata Meken, Butun Kyrgyzstan, Bir Bol, Zamandash and Social Democrats. The head of the Butun Kyrgyzstan party, Adakhan Madumarov, was appointed the leader of the council’s body.

This indicates that the real struggle is still ahead, and it is unlikely to be an easy one.

Opposition proposals

“The overwhelming majority of people are fed up with the proportional system introduced in 2010. A single place on party lists costs $300,000-380,000. They want to be deputies to ensure their inviolability and protection of property. These elections also saw 222 former criminals and 55 still under investigation. And a person who has no money cannot exercise his right to be elected,” Kyrgyz expert Toktogul Kakchekeev.

In these conditions, many Kyrgyz politicians feel the need to strengthen collegial forms of government by substantially eliminating the functions of the president or prime minister.

President Sooronbai Jeenbekov said yesterday that after the approval of the new cabinet, the structure and nomination of the prime minister, he will resign. However, this did not prevent him from carrying out a number of important personnel changes and introducing a state of emergency in the country. So, he dismissed the secretary and deputy secretary of the Security Council, appointing a new head of the General Staff. It is obvious that this decision was made under the pressure of circumstances and in order to avoid further aggravation of the situation in the country. Most observers indicate that this step was clearly belated and could trigger the development of the crisis.

According to the constitution and the constitutional law On a state of emergency, when deciding to introduce a state of emergency throughout the country or in a specific region, the president of the republic must immediately notify the Jogorku Kenesh (parliament), which must approve the introduction of the state of emergency. Deputies can cancel or change this decision, as well as prematurely lift the state of emergency. In the case of the introduction of the state of emergency on October 9, parliament was not notified.

The opposition is already interpreting the introduction of the state of emergency as further evidence of the president's abuse of powers.

However, new Prime Minister Sadyr Japarov announced the arrest of former President Almazbek Atambayev and other people. Zhaparov and Atambayev were freed by a crowd of protesters on the same date and time, but later they parted ways.

For many, this was a sign that the new government is coming into its own, making confident steps and getting rid of its opponents. Only time will tell whether the existing contradictions can result in another crisis of power or, given the bitter experience of their predecessors, they will be able to avoid another revolution.