A BLANK SHOT

Losing to Azerbaijan on the battlefield in Karabakh, Armenia continues to blame others for its own failures, trying at the same time to expand the geography of the conflict.

Armenia largely relied on Moscow, which, according to Yerevan, had to pacify Turkey for its support of Azerbaijan. But apparently, Armenians forget that Russia and Turkey are bound by mutual interests, which they are not going to abandon for the sake of Yerevan.

Is it worth it?

Even if we take into account the Kremlin’s desire to keep the situation in the South Caucasus under its control, by supporting Armenia in the conflict Russia can significantly spoil its uneasy relationships with Turkey, which have been progressing quite well not only at the level of the presidents of both countries, big business and energy projects, but also at the lower level.

Simple human contacts between Russia and Turkey have been developing for a long time through tourism, as well as economic cooperation through the small and medium-sized businesses.

Turkey is one of the main foreign economic partners of Russia. At the end of 2019, the volume of foreign trade between the two countries exceeded $26 billion, including exports from Russia ($21 billion) and imports ($5 billion). Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan set the task to bring this figure to $100 billion.

Russian exports to Turkey are traditionally dominated by energy resources, metals and metal products, food products and agricultural raw materials. The structure of imports includes machinery, equipment and vehicles, food products and agricultural raw materials, textiles and footwear.

Energy plays a key role in Russian-Turkish cooperation. Russia has been a reliable leading supplier of natural gas to the Turkish market for many years. According to the Turkish Energy Market Regulatory Authority, in 2019 the share of Russian gas in Turkish imports of natural gas reached 33.6%, or 15.2 billion cubic meters.

Meanwhile, the Russian gas concern Gazprom expects further growth in gas imports by Turkey due to a significant increase in domestic demand, despite the discovery of the Sakarya deep-water gas field in the Black Sea.

“According to forecasts of leading world agencies, it is expected that until 2040 Turkey sees a significant increase in gas consumption. This will increase the demand for imports, even after the development of its own gas fields in the future.

“But I would like to emphasize that the Turkish market is of great importance to us. Over the past years, the country has been and remains one of the key foreign markets for us. Gazprom has a reputation in Turkey as a reliable gas supplier, whose resources will be in demand in this market in the future as well,” Yelena Burmistrova, General Director of Gazprom Export said.

Turkish Stream

Russian gas has been exported to Turkey for 30 years. Initially, the gas was transported through the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline, which was then followed by the Blue Stream and the TurkStream project launched in January 2020. Moreover, TurkStream is of great strategic importance for both countries, since gas will be supplied not only to the Turkish market, but also to the EU countries, which will turn Turkey into a gas hub.

"The Turkish Stream gas pipeline is an example of cooperaton between Moscow and Ankara for the benefit of the peoples of these states, the peoples of Europe and the whole world," Russian President Vladimir Putin said.

TurkStream is an export pipeline from Russia to Turkey with a length of about 1,100 km. Two lines with a throughput capacity of 15.75 billion cubic meters each connected the two shores of the Black Sea. According to the first, gas goes directly to Turkey, and the second is intended for gas supplies to the countries of Southern and South-Eastern Europe. The Turkish part was put into operation in January 2020. The volume of investments in Turkish Stream is $7 billion. The gas pipeline belongs to Gazprom, which uses it for the transportation of natural gas from the fields of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (Russia).

As to the significance of TurkStream for Moscow, Vladimir Putin noted the active role of Ankara and the political will of the Turkish leader, which he showed in the implementation of a project that meets national interests.

“I know that President Erdogan is pursuing an independent foreign policy. Despite all the pressure, we implemented the Turkish Stream project in a fairly short time,” Mr. Putin said speaking on October 22 at the plenary session of the Valdai Discussion Club.

At the same time, Vladimir Putin did not fail to reproach European countries because of the construction of the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline, which is subject to pressure and sanctions from the United States. Despite the confidence of the Russian side in the successful launch of the gas pipeline, the exact date of its launch yet to be determined.

“We have been discussing this issue with Europe for years. Europe cannot demonstrate any elementary signs of independence and sovereignty in order to implement the absolutely beneficial Nord Stream-2 project. But with Turkey we did it quite quickly, no matter what. Mr. Erdogan knows and understands the national interests of his country. As soon as Mr. Erdogan agreed to implement the project, we did it," Putin explained.

Joint nuclear power plant

Yet another large energy project between Russia and Turkey is the joint project for the construction of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant. It is built according to a new model with the Russian side acting as the sole owner of the plant (Rosatom companies own almost 100% in the capital of Akkuyu Nuclear). In other words, Russia itself builds and owns the plant, and also sells electricity to Turkey, while Turkey promotes construction and provides guarantees for many years to purchase electricity at prices suitable to operate the facility.

In addition, Russia helps Turkey to create nuclear energy as a new economic sector for the country. Hundreds of Turkish specialists are being trained, and Russia helps them to create centrifuges for nuclear power plants.

The ground breaking ceremony of Unit No.1 of the Akkuyu NPP took place on April 3, 2018. A similar ceremony for Unit No. 2 it was expected until the end of 2019, but as a result, the start of construction was announced at the end of June 2020. As of the end of June, drilling and blasting operations for the third unit were ongoing. For Unit No. 4, Rosatom submitted the necessary documents to obtain a construction license in August 2020.

The cost of the Akkuyu NPP construction project is about $22 billion. The commissioning of the first unit is scheduled for 2023, the centenary of the Republic of Turkey.

Russian tourist flow to Turkey

Tourism is also one of the most important components of Russian-Turkish bilateral relations. Turkey is the most popular destination for Russian tourists. Thanks to the developed tourist infrastructure, the annual flow of Russian tourists is constantly increasing.

According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism of Turkey, the number of Russian tourists visiting the country in 2019 reached 7 million, which is an absolute record, and is 17.65% higher than the same indicator in 2018.

This year, Turkey's tourism sector, affected by the pandemic, will receive 3.5 million Russian citizens only. Of more than 1.5 million foreign tourists visiting Antalya this year, 381,000 tourists came from Russia.

Turkish capital in Russia

According to experts, Russia and Turkey have everything to develop closer economic ties: political will, stable contacts in trade and industrial cooperation, geographical proximity.

According to the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade, joint projects are successfully implemented not only in the energy sector, but also in metallurgy, automobile industry, light industry, and the production of building materials.

Direct Turkish investments in the Russian economy reach $20 billion. Turkish companies invest in the Russian timber industry, glass and textiles, food, chemical, electronic and electrical industries. Russian companies, in turn, are interested in the development of Turkish infrastructure related to energy consumption.

Russia is of particular importance for Turkish construction companies, which have already completed $75 billion worth of construction contracts.

In April 2019, the Russian Direct Investment Fund and the Turkish Sovereign Fund signed an agreement to create an investment platform with a capital of $1 billion to invest in promising sectors of economies in both countries.

In October 2019, Russia and Turkey signed an intergovernmental agreement on settlements and payments in national currency. The main purpose of the document is a gradual transition to the use of national currencies (ruble and lira) in settlements between the two countries. The activity of the mixed intergovernmental Russian-Turkish commission on trade and economic cooperation has been resumed.

In short, cooperation between Russia and Turkey is progressively developing in almost all spheres. According to Mr. Putin, "despite the difficult situation in the world and the attempts of a number of international players to prevent the expansion of mutually beneficial cooperation between our countries, our cooperation is progressing well."

Disagreements in Syria and Libya did not prevent the two countries from cooperating in the defense sphere, like the contract for the purchase of the Russian long-range anti-aircraft missile system S-400. As a result, Washington threatened Ankara with sanctions and excluded Turkish pilots from the F-35A fighter training program. Russia expects to sign yet another agreement on the sales of additional batch of S-400s to Turkey. In addition, Russia expressed its readiness to hold negotiations with Turkey on the supply of the 4++ generation fighters Su-35.

Thus, Russia and Turkey have many joint projects, which are not only mutually beneficial, but also increase the reputation of both countries in world politics. What can Armenia oppose to such a beneficial partnership? Absolutely nothing! Strategically, Ankara and Moscow need each other and will certainly be able to find a compromise on key controversial issues, no matter how difficult it may be. After all, by combining efforts, they can become much stronger, and being at odds to the joy of common geopolitical opponents will only weaken each other.