THE ABRAHAM ACCORDS

The so-called Abraham Accords for Peace on the normalization of diplomatic relations between the UAE, Bahrain and Israel signed on September 15 surprised many observers, making them look for hidden meanings in such a sudden friendliness of arch rivals. In addition to economic benefits for the signatories, ‘the Abraham commitments’ can in fact have a carefully elaborated purpose - tactical pressure on Iran. However, the Trump’s administration, which oversaw the conclusion of these agreements, lost the battle for the White House. Now the $64K question is how the new administration is going to leverage the Trump's legacy. Should this legacy reach the successor unaltered, of course.

Mutual benefits

It is important to note that the place of origin of these accords is the White House, when they were signed by the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the foreign ministers of the UAE and Bahrain Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan and Abdullah bin Rashid al-Zayani, as well as the US President Donald Trump. A joint statement by the leaders expressed the hope that this diplomatic success will contribute to the advancement of peace in the Middle East. Trump even announced "the beginning of a new Middle East." As usual, for the general public, the leaders highlighted the mutual benefits of the agreements for all parties, including in defense and security, economy, healthcare, agriculture, science, and tourism.

According to the Israeli Minister of Regional Cooperation Ophir Akunis, the parties will earn billions of dollars as soon as the relations normalise. Indeed, the business interests are one of the top priorities of the deal. Within a few days, it triggered quite specific discussions and actions regarding the import of oil from the UAE to Israel, the opening of direct flights, and trade through the seaport in Haifa. The parties also discussed the construction of a railway line bypassing the Suez Canal and Egypt, and even joint participation in arms exhibitions.

These are the bonuses of the Trump presidency that can be considered unprecedentedly fruitful and positive for Israel. After all, the recognition of the status of Jerusalem and the Golan Heights is worth something. The Biden administration may well interrupt this chain of successes. The primary fear for Israel is Biden’s intention to resurrect the nuclear deal with Iran initiated by Barack Obama back in 2015 and torn apart by Trump at the very beginning of his presidency. Therefore, some analysts believe that Trump and Israel will do their best to make the rebirth of the Iranian deal impossible before Trump leaves his office.

Anti-Tehran coalition

According to many observers, the US-backed alliance between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain was created precisely to counter Iran. In fact, the US launched the process of uniting the key opponents of Iran under a single coalition, the Middle East Strategic Alliance (MESA), which could become the Arab counterpart of NATO. Trump claimed that "after his victory in the presidential election, in a very short time, Iran will be ready to sign an agreement with the US."

What Trump expected from Iran is best illustrated by what the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said back in 2018. Thus, the US administration expressed its readiness to restore diplomatic and economic ties with Tehran under the following conditions: complete denuclearization, suspension of Iran’s ballistic missile program, as well as Iran’s efforts to expand its influence in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Afghanistan. To achieve his plans, Trump revised all the achievements of his predecessor concerning the US-Iranian relations and withdrew from the nuclear deal (JCPOA) concluded by Tehran with the permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany. In addition, the White House has returned to the policy of sanctions against Iran.

It may seem that now, after Biden's victory, the incumbent US administration should have forgotten about Trump’s plans in the Middle East, especially with regard to Iran. However, as soon as the IAEA published another report on the development of the Iranian nuclear program, Trump was reported to launch a pre-emptive attack on Tehran. Allegedly, Mike Pence and Mike Pompeo have talked Trump out of it. But, apparently, the least Trump is aiming for is to prevent Biden from carrying out his Iranian agenda.

Perhaps that is why in mid-November – after it became clear that Trump had lost the election – Mike Pompeo visited Israel and a number of other Gulf countries. In parallel, Benjamin Netanyahu's made a secret (?) visit to Saudi Arabia, the novel high-tech city of Neom on the Red Sea coast, to talk to the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The news became a sensation. With no details of the meeting available, it is assumed that Iran was one of the top issues discussed between Netanyahu and the Saudi prince. Finally, in early December, Trump's son-in-law and adviser, Jared Kushner, visited Saudi Arabia and Qatar. He said that these countries are close to concluding a preliminary agreement to resolve the conflict.

Back in June 2017, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt announced the blockade of Qatar and put forward 13 conditions for lifting it. Qatar refused to comply with the demands, considering them a violation of sovereignty and independence.

It seems they too now agree to be part of the great Middle East reconciliation. At the same time, it has been reported that Kushner also tried to get permission from the Saudis to use their Al-Udaid base to strike at Iran, and that he was in close contact with the intelligence authorities of the Persian Gulf on the subject of Tehran. In other words, the number one task of the US seems to ensure as many allies as possible to confront Iran.

Moreover, some observers note that the assassination of the Iranian nuclear physicist, head of the Defensive Research and Innovation Organization under the Iranian Defense Ministry, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was to provoke Iran or, rather probe Tehran's ‘red lines’. Remarkably, the media and social networks almost openly report the Israeli special services behind the infamous murder.

On the other hand, Joe Biden has already made it clear that, unlike most of Donald Trump's foreign policy steps, he is going to support the Abraham Accords. The agreements are believed to help the new US president build constructive relationships with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the other Gulf leaders. Yet Biden has his own plans to deal with Iran. It is possible that the Biden administration will not return to the 2015 agreement with Tehran, but will develop a new, amended one. All these plans fit perfectly into the goals of the Biden team, which has repeatedly said that Biden’s administration will mark the return of the US to global leadership.

Opportunities for Iran

For Iran, Biden's rise to power is an excellent opportunity to propose a major new deal to the US. Both Rouhani and Zarif have known Biden since his vice presidency and even before that. So, before the elections in Iran next year, the incumbent Iranian leadership has a chance to come up with an initiative that would help both sides ‘save face’. It can be combined with other regional initiatives, including the Abraham Accords under the reliable umbrella of American global leadership, as Biden says. After all, no one in the Middle East wants a big war that will flare up in the event of a military strike by Israel and the US on Iran. Obviously, Tehran does not want this given the poor state of its economy under the sanctions and the consequences of the coronavirus. Therefore, Iran now needs to play to Biden's initiatives at all costs and not succumb to Trump's provocations. If Tehran decides to take any radical step in response to something like the murder of its scientist, it can forget about truly peaceful initiatives in the Middle East for many years to come.