CONFLICT ANNIVERSARY

March 2021 will see the tenth year of the conflict in Syria. In fact, the government of Bashar al-Assad enjoys the current situation more than it was 7-8 years ago. Yet it is too early to say anything about the end of the war with certainty. Moreover, the process of political reconciliation is progressing very slowly. However, the presidential residence in the centre of Damascus is no longer shelled from mortars installed just seven kilometres away, as it was nine years ago.

Supplies and embargo

Now the key task of Bashar al-Assad, along with the process of political settlement, is try to lift of strict international embargo and to establish the sovereignty of the country. In fact, the US sanctions tightened in recent years by President Donald Trump have become a sort of economic chains for Damascus. Due to sanctions, Syria has faced the problem of grain shortage since last year. Even Russian companies cannot supply the volume required for Damascus. In general, since last summer, there has been a shortage of food products in the territories controlled by the Syrian government. In addition, the exchange rate of the US dollar has plummeted to 3200 Syrian pounds.

Another tragic aspect of the problem is a territorial one. After all, for many years the northeastern provinces of Syria have ensured the food supply of this predominantly agricultural country. But they are now controlled by the Kurds. Rather, PYD / YPG forces united under the coalition of the Democratic Forces of Syria and partially Turkey and its allies.

By the way, in the third decade of February, thanks to Russia’s mediation, the first convoy with 400 tons of grain was sent from the grain depots of the Hasaka province controlled by Turkey and its allies to Aleppo. It is assumed that there are 16,000 tons of wheat and 25,000 tons of barley in the northern regions of Syria and in the Shirkrak granaries of the Jazira province along the Hasaka-Raqqa-Aleppo transport route. In October 2019, during the Spring of Peace military operation launched by Turkey, these storage facilities came under the control of the Turkish army and its allies from the Syrian opposition. The current grain supply agreement was also brokered by Russia, which is trying to meet Damascus' needs in alternative ways.

Tehran and the Kurdish threat

Recently, Iran has also tried to contribute to the reconciliation between Turkey and Syria. Iranian Foreign Minister Adviser Ali Askar Haji said that Tehran was interested in restoring relations between Damascus and Ankara. Haji, who visited Damascus in mid-February, said the Syrian government wants the withdrawal of all foreign troops from the country, and Tehran wants to resolve issues and concerns between the governments of Syria and Turkey.

Attempts of Syria's allies - Iran and Russia - to reconcile Syria with Turkey have a number of important aspects. First, Turkey is suffering from rather cool relations with the West, since Ankara is pursuing a fairly independent and active policy on Syria and regional issues in general. Therefore, the interests of Ankara and the West are different. This factor can also push Ankara towards reconciliation with Damascus.

The second factor is the Kurdish issue. Damascus and Ankara are equally concerned about Kurdish separatism. If the Kurdish autonomy, which is de facto established in the north of Syria, receives political status, Ankara can face additional threats and risks. Therefore, Turkey does not want the creation of a Kurdish autonomy in Syria. Damascus does not want this either.

The same is true for Tehran. Iran is also part of the so called Kurdish Arc of the Middle East. Yet another Kurdish autonomy in Syria (after Iraq) will undoubtedly strengthen the tendencies of Kurdish separatism in Iran - a sore point with a hundred-year history - especially in front of a large front of opposing forces deployed against Tehran. In this sense, as during the events in northern Iraq back in 2017, Tehran wants Turkey and Syria to cooperate on the Kurdish issue. Four years ago Barzani's plan to create an independent Kurdish state failed because of the coordinated efforts of the Iraqi and Turkish governments.

On the other hand, the softening of Ankara's attitude towards Damascus opens up great opportunities for Russia and Iran, Syria's allies, to provide greater support to Damascus in resolving the food crisis and lifting other embargoes. Plus, in comparison with the neighbouring states, Syria has the longest border with Turkey (900 km). In this sense, normalization of relations between Ankara and Damascus could significantly improve the position of the Assad government on embargo and food security issues. Although we yet to see Ankara’s opinion on this issue, the current situation in Syria, the Kurdish threat, as well as the confrontation around the Eastern Mediterranean are pushing Ankara to conclude peace with Damascus. By the way, the position of Syria can undermine the Greek-Egyptian alliance against Turkey in the Mediterranean Sea.

Moreover, as part of the ongoing discussions on Syria, the rapprochement and mutual understanding between Ankara and Damascus on some issues may also strengthen the position of the forces backed by Turkey. In this sense, the desire of Russia and Iran to reconcile Ankara and Damascus is not just a diplomatic move, but a reality dictated by the new political situation.

The legacy of the Astana Process

Remarkably, the 15th conference as part of the famous Astana Process was organized in Sochi in February 2021 for the first time after the break caused by the coronavirus crisis. The event was also attended by delegations from Turkey, Iran, the Syrian government, the Syrian opposition and the UN representative for Syria, Geir Pedersen. In the final declaration of the 15th Sochi Conference, the parties confirmed that they did not consider the issue of an independent Kurdish state. This shows that the Kurdish issue and the problem of the territorial integrity of Syria are among the key priorities for Russia, Turkey and Iran - the initiators of the Astana Process.

Another important issue for Syria is the fate of terrorist organizations and radical militias. Indeed, a significant part of the Idlib province is still under the control of armed radical groups. The most notable of them are Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, ISIS and similar armed groups. ISIS is now trying to ensure the support of the local population through the deteriorating socio-economic and political situation in Iraq and Syria. However, attacks by ISIS fighters in the north and northeast of the country have again increased in recent months. According to Iraqi intelligence, the new leader of ISIS, Abdullah Gardash, is hiding in Kurdish-controlled areas in northeastern Syria. The protracted conflict, lack of a political solution, deteriorating welfare of the population and endless war create fertile ground for such radical terrorist organizations.

Situation in Idlib also remains uncertain, despite a ceasefire agreement reached in February 2020 between the presidents of Russia and Turkey. Moscow demands the opposition in Idlib get rid of radical terrorist groups, as previously agreed. The Russian government believes that radical terrorist groups must be withdrawn from Idlib in order to achieve a lasting peace, as well as to reduce the tensions due to the confrontation between Russia and Turkey. Currently, Russian military aviation and the Syrian army periodically strike at the positions of these groups. However, it is impossible to conduct a military operation against the armed groups in such a small area as Idlib. In addition, opposition families who fled to the province have further increased the population density in Idlib. Although the Syrian government has announced guarantees to evacuate civilians from Idlib through several additional corridors, it is clear that the population density in the province will not decrease. Sooner or later, confrontation in the region is inevitable.

Indeed, it seems that after ten years, the most difficult period of the civil war in Syria is over. But there are still very serious unresolved issues. Moreover, it is likely that stakeholders get surprise moments from the ongoing international settlement process in Geneva. Likely risks can be avoided if only Damascus and the regional countries move towards rapprochement. The international and regional situation is gradually pushing Damascus towards reconciliation with its neighbours, especially Ankara. For the settlement of the conflict and the protection of Syria's sovereignty within the existing borders are possible only through joint efforts of the leading regional countries. Therefore, attempts to soften relations between Ankara and Damascus in the coming months are inevitable. However, Syria has suffered many problems over the past ten years, the consequences of which will take some time to settle.