ALLIANCE OF FOUR

Soon after the UK left the European Union, British politicians, public figures or opinion leaders  have increasingly begun making assumptions about the intensification of London's ties with Canada, Australia and New Zealand – the territories where the British Queen remains the formal head. Hence the abbreviation CANZUK formed from the initial letters of the four countries - Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom - becomes increasingly popular, hinting at the establishment of a new alliance between the four states led by Great Britain in the near future.

CANZUK: an initiative from below

Perhaps, only few people remember that the term CANZUK is more than half a century old. It was coined by a scientist from the New Zealand, William David McIntyre, who first used the term in his 1967 book titled Colonies into Commonwealth. Many years later, Briton James Skinner adapted the idea of interaction between four states, trying to put this on a practical basis.

In fact, the whole idea is about creating conditions for free movement and trade similar to what exists under the Trans-Tasmanian Travel Agreement and the Trade Agreement on Closer Economic Relations between Australia and New Zealand. It is therefore expected that Canada and the UK eventually join these agreements too. Skinner and his colleagues have greatly promoted and expanded the idea, even creating the organization CANZUK International.

Amid Britain's exit from the EU, the increasing number of influential and recognizable public figures support the establishment of the so-called alliance of four. For example, after the 2016 Brexit referendum, writers Andrew Liliko and James C. Bennett, historian Andrew Roberts and many others have openly advocated the unification of Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. At the same time, Andrew Roberts suggested that the new bloc could form a third supporting force of the West (along with the US and the EU). Looking ahead, Roberts even argued that because of its territorial reach and developed economy, the new union could qualify as a great power or potentially a global power.

Other CANZUK supporters, such as Andrew Liliko, Senior Economist at Policy Exchange, view the organisation's ultimate goal as a geopolitical partnership similar to the EU. In the version supported by Liliko, the human rights group CANZUK International and the Conservative Party of Canada, the idea includes the creation of a free movement zone for goods and services, as well as a security agreement.

The broader concept of deepening trade ties (with or without a multilateral agreement) has many other proponents, including the Australian and Canadian prime ministers Scott Morrison and Justin Trudeau, former British Prime Minister Theresa May and New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.

Political fantasy, or the prototype of future relations

Back in 2015, CANZUK was viewed as a broad trade alliance as a response to Brexit. In addition, it was assumed that the four will rely on the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, which also includes the US. At the same time, trade, foreign policy and defense cooperation will be strengthened.

However, five years later, these ideas never materialized into a far-reaching political project. None of the four governments voiced their desire to unite in a new alliance. Over time, the voices of influential political forces not only in Great Britain, but also in other countries of the project will sound more clearly in favour of implementing the idea of creating a new association. Indeed, the proposed block will unite three of the 15 largest economies in the world - together with New Zealand, which is ranked as the 54th strongest. And it will cover more than 136 million people. Collectively, CANZUK will have the largest land mass in the world and therefore the largest reserves of natural resources.

The advantages are the creation of an alliance that uses English as the state language in all four countries, which are united by a common culture, traditions, and common humanitarian space. CANZUK can provide increased mobility of citizens of four countries in terms of work, study, retirement benefits.

However, these are all just assumptions. In reality, it is estimated that the UK's gross domestic product (GDP) will shrink by 5% over the next 15 years as a result of Brexit and lockdown. While CANZUK can contribute to securing the future economic power of the UK, it can in no way compensate access to the EU market. The UK exported £274 billion worth of goods and services to the EU in 2019. The EU is the country's largest trading partner, accounting for 47% of its total trade turnover. Whereas Canada, Australia and New Zealand together account for only 3.5% of the UK trade. Therefore, those who make encouraging claims that CANZUK can compensate the lost trade volumes between the EU and the UK are simply wishful thinkers.

Distant relationships

The distance factor also makes the cooperation and interaction between the emerging union of four difficult. Obviously, long physical distances between the states can seriously hamper plans for the development of cooperation. Canada, for example, is 14,150 km away from Australia, while Britain and New Zealand are separated by 18,389 km.

An important condition for economic development and integration is proximity to the developed markets. This makes it possible to optimize production chains, develop cooperation ties, and ensure the sale of manufactured products in the shortest possible time. With the distances that separate CANZUK states from each other, this becomes a very difficult task.

Globally, the most integrated industry is the automotive industry. Manufacturing a vehicle in the UK requires components from other countries. Thus, the components made in Germany for British vehicles are easier and cheaper to ship than those made in Australia. Therefore, CANZUK is clearly not about cooperation and economic integration.

Admittedly, not everyone thinks so. Supporters of CANZUK point to China, the world's #1 manufacturer, which can easily supply its products to long distances. They claim that cooperation within CANZUK could extend to high-tech innovation and even space exploration. But they forget that China is a world factory, where production is much less expensive than in Australia and provides practically everything. Thus, it is doubtful that Australians can produce what the British customers need. Also, will the British wait for the goods produced in an "expensive" country, and wait much longer than the ones to be delivered both faster and cheaper from China or India?

Geopolitical interests matter

The idea of CANZUK is promoted mainly by the right-wing politicians and think tanks supporting Brexit. They hope that the Joe Biden administration is likely to back the proposed bloc. After all, it will make it possible to create a third powerful structure within the Western world, along with the US and the EU.

Brexit supporters and their peers in Canada, Australia and New Zealand believe that the experience of historical ties can form the basis for the creation of new alliances outside Europe. Thus, they appeal to a special identity and an international role, and do not hide their intentions to strengthen their positions in the Asia-Pacific region, which is going to have a share in world politics in the coming decades comparable to that of the Euro-Atlantic region.

Such plans to some extent coincide with London's proposal to create an alliance of like-minded countries in order to put pressure on China on the situation around Hong Kong.

The US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand (allies of Britain in the Five Eyes Special Services Alliance) admit the possibility of expanding the agenda and joint coordination, for example, in the fight against COVID-19. This issue was the subject of a ministerial online meeting held in June 2020. Australian Prime Minister S. Morrison expressed his hope that the intelligence alliance will help develop a common strategy to overcome the economic consequences of the pandemic and create alternative supply chains to reduce dependence on China.

But it is well known that alliances based on the principle of "friendship against others" are short-lived. Indeed, the current conjuncture tells CANZUK ideologists that their idea has the right to be materialised. Moreover, Washington, which has exclusive influence on all the states of the quartet, intends to strengthen ties between liberal democracies and support institutions that have weakened due to China's dominance in relations with individual Western countries. But the political environment is changeable, while alliances are usually established to remain for decades at least. What will the initiators of CANZUK do when the American administration changes again, or if the cooperation with China becomes more profitable than rivalry? Do they have a plan "B" and a long-term vision? Then come the questions that are difficult to answer now.