FRENCH KISS OVER GARABAGH

There are hardly fewer options in foreign policy than there are states on the planet. A state can shift the focus of its foreign policy on an alliance with Russia or China, the US or Europe, join military blocs or remain neutral, or actively establish international ties. Or, for example, to pursue an isolationist policy (to the extent possible in the modern world, of course), to be friends or rivals with someone. But in any case, this very foreign policy course must be clear and predictable. And it certainly not change as frequent as daily. But these simple truths definitely do not apply to Armenia, where foreign policy demonstrates the most intricate and unexpected somersaults. So, Nikol Pashinyan, acting Prime Minister of Armenia, unexpectedly for many, suddenly visited Paris, and then Brussels. Moreover, he did it in the midst of the election campaign, which itself is an unprecedented event, as the first persons of the country cannot leave it on the eve of an important plebiscite.

A voyage to Paris

At first glance, Nikol Pashinyan may well record the results of his French visit as an asset, which is not true about the leader of the accepting country. French President Emmanuel Macron, who received Pashinyan at the Elysee Palace, said: "Azerbaijani forces must withdraw from the territory of sovereign Armenia." At the same time, he demanded the release of "not only the prisoners of war, but also all those held in custody" and insisted on the role of France in maintaining peace. The speaker of the French National Assembly Richard Ferrand went even further, who at a meeting with Nikol Pashinyan said that Paris pays close attention to the processes taking place in the South Caucasus, and assured his Armenian guest that “France supports Armenia, please convey our message to the Armenian people. We will do our best to establish stability and prosperity in Armenia. You have always relied on us. You can rely on us now and in the future.”

In Baku, this event caused understandable bewilderment and indignation. In response to Macron's statements, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry recalled that, firstly, peace in the region is ensured by Russian peacekeepers, and France has nothing to do with it. Speaking about Macron's demand that Azerbaijani troops leave the territory of Armenia, the official representative of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry Leyla Abdullayeva said: “We emphasize once again that the Azerbaijani military serve on their native land. France has been the co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group since 1997, but, unfortunately, Paris has never called for the withdrawal of the Armenian Armed Forces from the occupied Azerbaijani lands." Finally, Mr. Macron’s request to "release all detained persons" is not clear either: Azerbaijan returned the prisoners of war, but the terrorists and saboteurs caught red-handed must answer for their actions. “It's no secret that France has a special sympathy for Armenia, but Paris, as the OSCE Minsk Group co-chair, must remain neutral. We hope that France will remain neutral and impartial within the framework of its mandate as co-chair,” Abdullayeva said.

But why did Emmanuel Macron need to court Nikol Pashinyan so much? What do France and Armenia really want to achieve?

Yerevan’s plans...

It just so happened that Nikol Pashinyan went to Paris just before his birthday. It is unlikely, of course, that he seriously hoped to be congratulated in France. But, apparently, Pashinyan’s team had very serious hopes that the French voyage would be successful and Pashinyan would definitely bring real guarantees of military support, investments, or something else from Paris. Yerevan presumably planned that France’s activity in Europe and NATO should force Russia to enter into a competitive struggle and strengthen support for its last bastion in the South Caucasus, which would also bring clear pre-election dividends.to Pashinyan’s team

But it is a big question if Armenia managed to achieve serious success in France. Yes, there were loud statements made in Paris in support of Armenia, which provoked a political scandal with Azerbaijan, but no more. Moscow understands perfectly well that Armenia, whose borders are guarded by Russian soldiers, and whose security is ensured by the Russian base in Gyumri and whose economy is supported by direct and indirect financial assistance from Russia, will remain under Russian control. So, in terms of the Russian influence, Pashinyan's visit to Paris will end in nothing in the best-case scenario. In the worst-case scenario, Moscow will try to explain to its southern neighbour that it is better not to be so active in political matters.

...and Parisian plans

Theoretically, it is possible that Paris hopes to integrate into the post-conflict settlement, revive the Minsk Group, etc. But in this case, Paris would have, at least for record, to demonstrate neutrality. But it is clearly something different.

Even during the 44th war in Garabagh, statements coming from Paris caused both bewilderment and indignation in Baku. France promised that they would not "allow" Azerbaijan to de-occupy Garabagh, repeated Yerevan's delusional fakes about "Syrian mercenaries" allegedly fighting for Azerbaijan, and so on.

The motives of Paris were clear then. France tried to establish itself as an independent player in the international arena. To begin with, the French authorities tried to arrange a rivalry with Turkey and even sent their warships to help Haftar in Libya. Then, in an attempt to have its own proxies, France chose Armenia for this role. Then, at the beginning of the 44-day war, someone could still believe stories about "the most efficient army in the region" and the "victories of the Armenian army".

However, it all made sense in September and early October 2020, but not now. Yerevan is not suitable as a French proxy. Hopes for "the fighting spirit of the Armenian military", and the stories about the fantastic fighting efficiency of the Armenian army turned out to be greatly exaggerated. The defeat in Garabagh, the broken line of fortifications, the crumpled Armenian defense, the loss of control first over the Araz valley and then over Shusha, surrender, a destroyed fleet of armoured vehicles, a knocked out officer corps, 10,000 deserters – these facts do not make it possible to consider Armenia a valuable proxy. Moreover, Armenia continues to be dependent on Russia.

In other words, the Parisian plans for Yerevan narrowed down to purely domestic political ones. Emmanuel Macron needs to think about the upcoming elections amidst the yellow vest movement, failed fight against the coronavirus pandemic, growth of ultra-right sentiment and other troubles. Voices of French Armenians would have come in handy, and the demonstrative hugging of Pashinyan may well seem like a good way to get them.

However, there is no way to get away with the Azerbaijani scale of the issue, where French companies continue to lose ground and sound an alarm, realising that it is staying away from the multi-billion dollar contracts for the restoration of the territories liberated from the Armenian occupation. The thinking part of the French elite understands well that now the political and economic trends in South Caucasus are determined by Azerbaijan, with which Macron so recklessly spoiled relations for the sake of Armenian votes. By the way, they have their own opinion regarding the defeated Pashinyan, whom the French Armenians protested in Paris.

So, the outcome of reciprocal cuddling in Paris may be totally different from what Macron expected.