PLATFORM FOR THE FUTURE

The visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Azerbaijan on June 15, including his visit to Shusha and the signing of the Shusha Declaration, will undoubtedly go down in the history of bilateral relations and the entire region as an important achievement that determines the vector of political processes for years to come. As for the Turkish-Azerbaijani cooperation, the Shusha Declaration opens a new stage of cooperation. For the first time in the long history of strong friendship between the two states, the parties introduced the term "alliance" into the bilateral political and legal framework.

Military-political aspects of the Shusha Declaration

The document draws attention to the expanded interpretation of mutual military-political obligations. In the event of a threat or aggression from a third state or states against the independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity, inviolability or security of the internationally recognised borders of either side, the parties agreed to hold joint consultations to develop initiatives in line with the objectives and principles of the UN Charter to eliminate the threat or aggression... It is also envisaged to provide the necessary assistance to each other in accordance with the UN Charter, the organization of coordinated activities of the power and command structures of the armed forces.

Undoubtedly, these points of the Shusha Declaration elaborate on the provisions of the 2010 Strategic Partnership and Mutual Assistance Treaty, according to which the parties undertake to provide mutual assistance “by all means available” in the event of an armed attack or aggression against each other. It also offered a range of activities on technical re-equipment for conducting joint military operations, military-technical cooperation, joint military exercises and military training, albeit without specifying the details of assistance.

In the Shusha Declaration, the signatories focused on joint efforts to restructure and modernise their armies in line with modern requirements, including the measures to strengthen their defense capabilities and military security, improving the skills of joint activities of the armies of the two states. That is, the document is about the coordination and synchronization of the processes of army building, maximum integration of the armed forces of the two states. This process should guide the regular joint meetings of the security councils of both countries on national security issues.

Obviously, there is a desire of both states to act in a single military-strategic link. This means that not only Turkey undertakes an obligation to defend Azerbaijan in the event of an attack, but also Azerbaijan will stop the risks associated with the military-political security of Turkey in the region of presence, i.e. in Caucasus. In a world where long-term or situational military-political alliances become relevant, Azerbaijan cannot participate alone in building a national security system. Especially considering that Armenia continues to actively involve non-regional actors in its military-political games against Azerbaijan and Turkey. In particular, we know about the efforts of Yerevan to form a military alliance with Greece and Cyprus. Baku perceives the bold statements of the French President Emmanuel Macron about his government’s readiness to provide military assistance to Armenia as a threat to its security.

Thus, the military-political alliance of Azerbaijan with Turkey is designed to balance the risks of involving Armenia in military alliances with external players and ultimately can contribute to security and stability in the South Caucasus.

Text of the declaration underlines the role of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic in terms of restoring all the economic and transport links, as well as normalising relations between the countries of the region and ensuring long-term peace. At the same time, a special geographical position of Nakhchivan will be taken into account, which is a kind of connecting link between Turkey and Azerbaijan and is becoming a geographic reference point for bilateral interaction. It is possible to implement not only bilateral, but also multilateral projects. For example, with the participation of Iran and the Turkic-speaking states.

Inappropriate speculation

On June 17, Turkish President Recep T. Erdogan mentioned that the creation of a military base of the Turkish Army in Azerbaijan is the exclusive prerogative of the Azerbaijani side. He said that this issue does not go beyond the provisions of the Shusha Declaration, but did not elaborate on this. “This topic can be developed in the course of consultations between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Russian President Vladimir Putin. And in the course of our negotiations, it can also be implemented in its own way,” Erdogan said.

Some experts and media outlets immediately rushed to link this topic with the strengthening of NATO in the region and the intensification of NATO preparations against Russia. At the same time, they preferred to remain silent about the fact that NATO is an independent institution with which Azerbaijan is implementing the Individual Partnership Plan, and that relations with NATO do not go beyond the framework of this plan. Military-political and military-technical cooperation between Azerbaijan and Ankara can only indirectly influence the relations between Baku and Brussels. At the same time, NATO will not seek to patronize the military-political steps of Baku, to exercise custody over it in any form. Therefore, there is no NATO-Russia confrontation in Azerbaijan.

It is also wrong to assume that the Azerbaijani-Turkish alliance can become a prototype for the future military-political alliance between the Turkic-speaking states, a basis for the political union of the Turkic countries.

The member-states of the Turkic Council do not aim to create a military-political union and do not attempt to form a single military-political platform, or to unify the standards of their armies.

Also, the military doctrine of Azerbaijan approved in 2010 does not include plans to deploy foreign military bases in the country. Of course, in the light of the recent changes unfolding in the region and given the nature of the Azerbaijani-Turkish relations, Azerbaijan can make adjustments to the doctrine. However, the nature of bilateral cooperation and the regional circumstances rather presuppose the development of intensive contacts at the military-technical level and the establishment of a common military-technical infrastructure with Turkey. The construction of a Turkish military base in Azerbaijan is ruled out. Thus, currently this issue is not being considered neither in the military-strategic nor in the political plane. Moreover, the declaration specifically noted that it was not against the interests of third countries.

Economic integration, Zangezur Corridor and new prospects

The Shusha Declaration outlines a new framework for economic cooperation between Azerbaijan and Turkey. It indicates the prerequisites for the integration of the economies of the two states. In particular, Azerbaijan and Turkey aim to create elements of a common labour and goods market, as well as a common system of marketing communications, especially the implementation of export-import operations with third countries.

The desire to develop mutually beneficial investment cooperation deserves special attention. In April 2021, Azerbaijani Minister of Economy Mikayil Jabbarov said that the Azerbaijani-Turkish intergovernmental commission on economic cooperation reached an agreement on the establishment of a joint investment fund. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan Investment Company OJSC and the National Welfare Fund of Turkey already started negotiations on this issue. The parties also discuss issues related to the size of the authorised capital, as well as the promising areas of activity.

Effective from April 1, 2021, the nationals of Azerbaijan and Turkey do not need to have a passport for their trips to either of these countries - it is enough to have an identity card only. This contributes to the growth of entrepreneurial activity, stimulates investments of small and medium-sized businesses in real estate, trade, and services.

Agreement on preferential trade between the two states effective since March 1, 2021 makes the increase of the mutual trade turnover from the current $4.3 to $15 billion by 2023 quite realistic.

Remarkably, ranking first in investments in the non-oil sector of Azerbaijan's economy, Turkey is trying to strengthen its positions in this area. Currently, there are 4,200 companies with Turkish capital operating in Azerbaijan. The total amount of their participation in almost 300 projects, mainly in the non-oil sector, reaches $16.3 billion.

A review of economic indicators shows that Turkey is slowly raising to the top in Azerbaijan's non-oil trade business. This gives it an opportunity to become a factor stimulating the development of the Azerbaijani economy and allowing it to balance the role that the Russian market has played so far. This is largely facilitated by the participation of Turkish companies in projects to restore the liberated Azerbaijani regions.

In May, President of Azerbaijan signed a decree on the transfer of concessions at the Gashgachay, Elbeydash and Aghduzdagh fields to two Turkish companies. The decree lays the foundations for cooperation between Azerbaijani and Turkish businesses in the mining industry and the use of the Turkish marketing network abroad to promote the products of the Azerbaijani mining industry in third countries. These primarily include iron ore, molybdenum and copper.

One of the noteworthy sections in the text of the declaration include the implementation of large energy and gas projects by the two states, such as the Southern Gas Corridor, in which Turkey and Azerbaijan hold key positions, the East-West transport corridor and the Middle International Transport Corridor. Ankara and Baku emphasised the importance of the Zangezur Corridor connecting Azerbaijan and Turkey, and noted the prospects for the construction of the Nakhchivan-Kars railway, which will actually close the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars-Nakhchivan-Zangezur corridor-Baku regional transport circle.

In addition, Turkey and Azerbaijan are forming a new humanitarian agenda. In Turkey, 2021 is declared the Year of Yunus Emre, and in Azerbaijan - the Year of Nizami Ganjavi. And, of course, it is very important that the humanitarian and spiritual cooperation between the two countries fits modern realities. The material heritage of our peoples, the philosophy of Emre, Nizami, in the light of bilateral development, are unifying principles that inspire our peoples to new horizons of spiritual and ideological unity. The Shusha Declaration is undoubtedly the platform that will ensure the stability of bilateral relations and create a favourable regional background for the cooperation of international actors for years to come.