PROLOGUE OF THE GREAT VICTORY

Precisely a year ago, Armenia committed a major military provocation on the border with Azerbaijan - the last one before the 44-day war in Garabagh. Not only did the July battles demonstrate the aggressive policy of Armenia towards Azerbaijan, but they also were a sign of an irreversibly approaching large war, which could have only one outcome - the liberation of the territories of Azerbaijan occupied 30 years ago.

Failure of Armenian provocation

Starting from July 12 and over the next few days, the Armenian army used its artillery in an attempt to advance in the Tovuz district of Azerbaijan. As a result of this blatant provocation, several Azerbaijani troopers were killed, including General Polad Hashimov.

However, the aggressors received an adequate response. The Azerbaijani military crushed the enemy positions and defended the state border of the country. The prevention of the next act of Armenian military aggression demonstrated the might of the Azerbaijani army, which is ready to carry out any combat missions to restore territorial integrity.

In his address at the Azerbaijani Security Council meeting held on July 13, 2020, President Ilham Aliyev confirmed that Baku would never reconcile with the occupation of its territories, including Daghlig Garabagh and the seven adjacent adjacent. Mr. Aliyev placed full responsibility for the escalation of tensions on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border on the military-political leadership of Armenia.

Obviously, Armenia pursued a number of tasks through the July provocation, one of them, undoubtedly, being the seizure of strategic positions of the Azerbaijani army on the Tovuz section of the border, as well as the border settlements of Azerbaijan.

Yet another task of Armenian aggressors was to take control over and, if necessary, even blow up the strategic pipelines passing nearby, which play an instrumental role in the development of the entire region, by occupying the strategic positions and heights in this area.

The goal of the Armenian military provocation in July 2020 was to involve the third parties in the conflict, primarily the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). The idea was to portray Azerbaijan as the culprit of the escalation and to secure the support for the next Armenian aggressions from Russia and other CSTO member states. It is no coincidence that by shelling the military positions and the civilian population of Azerbaijan, Armenia also hypocritically called for the support of the international community. It loudly declared the need to take urgent measures, allegedly in order to "strengthen the ceasefire on the line of contact of the troops."

Apparently, all these factors encouraged Armenia in its attempt to consolidate the regional status quo that had been effective since the occupation of a fifth of the internationally recognised territory of Azerbaijan. Yerevan intended to nullify the negotiation process under the auspices of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, or, in extreme cases, to direct it into an “eternal simulation” channel in the interest of Yerevan.

However, the outcome of the July clashes - the largest since the April 2016 war - marked the collapse of Armenian calculations. Yerevan miscalculated and realised this only when, in response to pleas for assistance and support to its allies, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov actually named Armenia as the culprit for the July battles.

The July 2020 incident demonstrated to the world that Azerbaijan would never reconcile with the occupation of its territories. The suppression of the next Armenian provocation caused a significant rise in the patriotic spirit of the Azerbaijani people manifested by both the mass rallies in Baku and the actions organised by the Azerbaijani diaspora in many world capitals, some of which turned into an arena of clashes between Azerbaijanis and aggressive Armenians. In those days a year ago, it became clear that the Azerbaijani people was hardly able to remain patient, and it would not wait for the next 30 years. The solidarity of the people, army and the state of Azerbaijan played a key role in the 44-day war that began two and a half months after the July battles.

The war had no alternative

During the July battles, the world community had a clear evidence that Azerbaijan, as official Baku had repeatedly warned earlier, would not allow the simulation of negotiations. Armenia was given a choice: it would either agree to constructively discuss the issue of de-occupation of Azerbaijani territories, or there would be no negotiations at all. Therefore, the military provocation of Armenia explicitly raised the following questions: how the situation will develop in the Garabagh region? and What will be the fate of the process of the peaceful settlement of the Garabagh conflict?

In fact, the settlement process was in a deadlock. The OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs - Russia, the United States and France - continued to urge the conflicting parties to start substantive negotiations. That is, what Azerbaijan has always called for, inviting Armenia to immediately start developing a comprehensive peace treaty.

However, Armenia stubbornly rejected all these calls from Baku and international mediators, as the substantive negotiations supposed a specific discussion of the fundamental issues of the settlement. What was the fundamental issue of the Garabagh conflict that required to be resolved immediately? Obviously, it was required to suppress the occupation of a part of the internationally recognised territory of Azerbaijan by Armenia. Therefore, the plans for the settlement of the conflict, based on the so-called updated Madrid principles, assumed the withdrawal of the Armenian military from the occupied districts of Azerbaijan as one of their priorities. Yerevan realised that it had to fulfil one of the fundamental provisions of the settlement anyway, and tried to draw attention to the secondary aspects during the negotiations. Thus, the process of peaceful resolution of the conflict was deliberately delayed. In particular, Armenia tried to push the issue of "investigation of armed incidents" onto the negotiating table, as if these incidents were the cause and not the result of the long-term conflict unleashed by it.

Thus, not willing to reconcile with the irreversible consideration of the issue of de-occupation of Garabagh in the course of substantive negotiations, Armenia opted for conducting a series of non-stop provocations and sabotage against Azerbaijan. Even after the July clashes, which actually collapsed of the military provocations of Armenia, it continued to escalate tensions on the border with Azerbaijan. These included new acts of aggression killing and injuring several Azerbaijani troopers, to which President Aliyev responded with the unprecedented statements blaming Yerevan for undermining the negotiation process. If the provocative actions continued, the hostilities could be extended to the territory of Armenia itself. All these factors demonstrated the growing tension in the conflict zone threatening with a large-scale war.

What were the odds of a peaceful settlement of the conflict back in July 2020? The answer is obvious: practically none, since Armenia did not express an intention and readiness to end the occupation of Azerbaijani territories. On the contrary, it demonstrated in every possible way its intention to consolidate the consequences of the occupation (in particular, through a number of provocations with the personal involvement of the Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan). However, contrary to the plans of Yerevan, the real situation, based primarily on the results of the failed July provocation of Armenia, proved that the existing status quo – a remnant of the 1990s – could not continue further and must end. And if not good willingly, then forcibly. For the actual failure of the negotiation process left no other alternative for Azerbaijan, but the military way of liberating Garabagh and restoring its territorial integrity. Only in this way could historical justice, triumph of the principles and norms of international law in the region of the Garabagh conflict, as well the implementation of four UN Security Council resolutions providing for the unconditional withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces from the territory of Azerbaijan be restored.

In July 2020, President Ilham Aliyev warned: "Armenia's dirty and insidious policy will lead to its collapse." This warning proved true after just two months.

The next attempt to attack the military facilities and settlements of Azerbaijan undertaken by the Armenian aggressors on September 27 had the most sad consequences for Armenia. The counter-offensive operation of the Azerbaijani Army resulted in a crushing defeat of Armenia. In just 44 days, the Azerbaijani army destroyed the deeply echeloned defensive system of the invaders, which had been installed for three decades. The defeated Armenian army was expelled from the territory of Azerbaijan.

The aggressive policy of Armenia, as Ilham Aliyev had warned, suffered a complete collapse. The aggressors did not take into account many lessons that life taught them earlier. The most convincing of them was the July 2020 battles, which were the prologue of the Great Victory of Azerbaijan.