THE CLIMATE FACTOR

Summer of 2021 was very big on climatic disasters. Reports of floods, fires, tornadoes, mudflows, landslides, dust storms, rainstorms and droughts hit the headlines along with the latest data on the coronavirus pandemic and sports news from the Tokyo Summer Olympic Games... Moreover, often in different regions, weather anomalies so abruptly replaced each other that people literally could not recover, having found themselves either in the hellish heat or in the epicentre of heavy rains.

Disasters with consequences

Floods in Western Europe caused by the Bernd storm was the largest in 100 years, claiming the lives of dozens of people. The cities in Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, France, and Luxembourg suffered the most. Another flood took place in London, flooding the local underground system. High water caused by heavy rainfall and floods also affected many Russian regions, especially resorts in the south of the country. Floods, landslides and fires in China, Afghanistan, Japan, India, and Turkey have become a real disaster.

Needless to say, this summer it rained even in the driest national park in the United States - Death Valley and for the first time after a long pause in Greenland. Unprecedented hurricanes and tornadoes on the contact line of air fronts caused destruction and death of people in the Czech Republic, and in the Tver region of Russia. At the same time, drought affected the northern regions of Kazakhstan, as well as Kalmykia, Bashkortostan, Tatarstan and other regions of the Russian Federation. Shallowing of rivers, decreasing levels of water in lakes, complete dryup of streams and wells are observed in many southern countries of the world. Iran suffers from a severe drought, where more than 80% of the land has dried up, water reserves from open sources have almost completely dried up. Similar problems are observed in Jordan, where the water level in almost all reservoirs has dropped to critically low levels.

Record hot temperatures were observed in many parts of the world - from Russia to Canada. In Great Britain, hot, cloudless weather was established, more typical for southern Europe. Hong Kong had the highest temperature in history. In some regions of Russia, temperature exceeded the normal limits by as much as 5-10 degrees. In Canada, the national temperature record was broken in June when the city of Lytton recorded 49.6°C. Due to high temperatures and strong winds, forest fires began to occur, with especially unprecedented scale in Russian Yakutia. Many other regions of the Russian Federation have also suffered from the fires, including in Mordovia, Karelia, the Voronezh region, the Volga region, etc. Huge fires covered the states of California and Oregon, and vast territories in Canada.

Situation in Turkey

In the Mediterranean basin, violent fires have covered forests and tourist resorts in Turkey, Greece, Lebanon, Italy, Algeria, Israel, and Spain.

However, in Turkey, where fire has raged in several provinces since the end of July, government officials have immediately raised suspicions that, in addition to the climatic factor, malicious actions could have taken place. Their suspicions have become true when on August 1, Children of Fire, a division of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) recognised by Turkey as a terrorist organisation, took responsibility for the forest fires. Terrorists reported that in July they had burned dozens of objects in different cities of Turkey, including yachts, boats, cars, and warehouses. In addition, in 2019 and 2020, the organisation also took responsibility for wildfires in the country. This year, the fire was contained from sliding towards the coastal zone and resort hotels, but, in addition to the forest, the fire burned villages and agricultural lands, claiming the lives of seven people, as well as thousands of wild animals.

Fortunately, the neighbouring states help each other. Azerbaijan also helped fight the fires in Turkey. In fact, the calamity in Turkey has become a striking example of how climate change can not only add new problems, but also exacerbate the previously existing ones. For example, the problem of terrorism, when adverse weather conditions can actually become fertile ground for criminals...

Consequences of climate change

Unfortunately, dangerous consequences of natural disasters do not end there. Natural disasters can significantly exacerbate the problem with refugees, which is now relevant for many countries of Europe and Turkey, as well as cause serious social upheaval. Since mid-July, demonstrations have taken place in Iran due to the catastrophic shortage of water, which claimed the lives of people. Another very likely consequence of climate change, especially related to drought and water scarcity, could be border conflicts, especially in the Middle East and Central Asia. It is also difficult to judge how much Europe itself is insured against such a scenario, if the situation suddenly turns extremely critical.

This may happen in the very near future. The August 7 report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says the Earth is facing an irreversible catastrophe due to global warming - the planet will overcome a critical temperature threshold as early as 2030. According to the UN experts, the temperature limit on Earth may be violated if carbon dioxide emissions are not halved by 2030, and completely by 2050. This means that the number of natural disasters will only increase and the summer of 2021 may now repeat itself every time, or even may seem relatively calm compared to previous years, if we ever get such data by that time.

Scientists warn that due to climate warming, large masses of ice can melt, which will flood significant portions of the land and even wipe entire countries off. It is easy to predict that such a scenario will completely reformat the usual life on our planet in all spheres - economic, political, spiritual, cultural. If even a relatively local flood in Western Europe incurred 7 billion euros in losses, then in the event of a global flood, it is unlikely that in the coming decades, or even centuries, mankind be able to return to its usual economic, industrial and scientific activities, let alone human casualties.

Fortunately, this is still too radical a scenario. Most likely, due to unfavourable weather conditions, many countries will begin to experience serious problems with food security. And this seems really scary, because the lack of food can create difficulties even for developed countries. What will happen in countries where the population previously suffered massively and died from systematic malnutrition and hunger? For example, according to the UN, Madagascar is already on the brink of the world's first climate-related famine. The worst drought in four decades, lasting nearly four years, has devastated isolated farming communities in the south of the country. In the absence of food, people eat locusts and cactus leaves, food prices have tripled, and local population is selling its land for money to get food.

Looking for solutions

Is there any solution to the existing situation? So far, politicians have generally remained silent, with experts arguing rather uncertainly. It is possible, for example, to suspend most of the production and the rest of the violent human activity – this will be an effective measure indeed. This has been recently confirmed by the global quarantine, which has significantly contributed to clearing air, water, etc. from pollution in many states. The method is effective, but completely unrealistic. Because we will not agree to this solution. After all, we will not be able to agree on this, organise ourselves. At least until yet another virus or similar disease urges us to reconsider the situation again... But again, this sounds more like a fantasy.

Most likely, many countries will adopt the so-called carbon taxes, which will largely apply to carbon-intensive industries such as petrochemical and chemical industries, and, probably, to agricultural activities. However, the question is – is not this ‘green transition’ too late? After all, solar panels or batteries for electric vehicles also require production, hence the energy and materials. And they are not made of eco-elements at all, but consist of quite toxic substances. Nuclear power plants, from what we know after the infamous events in Chernobyl and Fukushima, can cause as much damage as no thermal or hydro power plant will do. The same level of scepticism can be applied to discussions urging the mankind to seriously reconsider our eating habits, especially the meat consumption. In fact, meat is an important constituent of our diet, which is not true about the various gourmet foods, which are not that vital for the survival of human species. Since we yet to get proposals for delicacies, we can assume that, perhaps, the hassle is about a trivial redistribution of the global market...

In fairness, not everyone believes in a solely anthropogenic cause of climate change. Some say that the Earth is simply going through a certain cycle of warming, as it has happened several times before, while some claim the displacement of the poles of our planet, as well as the effects of solar activity. There are even suggestions about climate weapons, which are allegedly used to establish a new world order disguised as the fight against global warming. But since the exact cause of climatic cataclysms cannot be established and there is no clear, real, global response plan, we have no other choice than to focus on the consequences.

But one thing is quite clear. While in the past, the climate issues were relatively small to tackle them in international relations, and concerned only the ‘chosen ones’, who did not want to do something really serious, now everything is changing dramatically. The climate is becoming the most important geopolitical factor, one of the most pressing problems of humanity. A few years ago, the problem of global warming could bring together even the most implacable enemies and was specifically included in the final declarations of various large-scale events such as summits and conferences, when there was little to say. But now the climate becomes the main bone of contention, when the states avidly discuss who will bear the burden of reducing atmospheric emissions, how to share climate refugees and critical resources, and, of course, who will benefit from the new green world in terms of new industries, new services, and new transit routes...