HOPELESS RULES

Recent visit of the US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to the Black Sea region (Georgia, Romania, and Ukraine) is directly related to the confrontation between the US/NATO and Russia. Immediately after the talks in Georgia and Ukraine, Austin joined the NATO summit of defense ministers in Brussels, where the participants agreed a secret plan to contain "potential aggression from Russia". According to experts on both sides of the Atlantic, two geopolitical adversaries are deliberately raising bets in Ukraine and Georgia. At the same time, Russia is trying to benefit from contradictions between the US/NATO and the EU, as well as between the US and China. Amid the internal political crises developing in Georgia and Ukraine. Apparently, despite the growing energy crisis in Europe, we are expecting a hot winter season.

Efforts to contain the Kremlin

Austin made quite unambiguous statements in Tbilisi: he promised to "support and strengthen the sovereignty of states facing the Russian aggression." Then the heads of the Pentagon and Georgian Ministry of Defense signed a memorandum on military partnership, which provides for long-term US policy to assist Georgia, including improving its defense potential, containing external aggression and driving the country toward the Euro-Atlantic integration. According to observers, it is possible that in case of the worsening situation in Donbass or increasing tensions in South Ossetia, the US military bases may be deployed in Georgia.

Then, Austin moved to Kiev on October 19, where he raised the degree of tension even more and stepped on all the ‘red lines’ of Russia. Washington will continue to arm the Ukrainian Army. According to Austin, the US leadership fully supports Kiev’s intention to become a member state of NATO and no one has the right to interfere with Kiev’s decision. “I am here to reaffirm our unwavering support for Ukraine's sovereignty, territorial integrity and Euro-Atlantic aspirations, and to express our commitment to strengthening Ukraine's ability to contain further Russian aggression,” the head of the US Department of Defense twitted from Ukraine. His words are remarkable because just a few days before the statement, adviser to the head of the office of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, Alexei Arestovich, announced that Ukraine had begun to develop a number of scenarios in the event of a military conflict with Russia. Kiev assumes that "the war with Russia is already underway" and it may turn into a full-scale conflict under certain conditions.

Russia interpreted everything exactly as it was planned on the opposite side. Russian President Vladimir Putin made a statement at the regular Valdai Club meeting, saying that Lloyd Austin’s visit to Kiev actually means opening the doors of NATO for Ukraine. Surprisingly, the subsequent statement from the Kremlin added that Russia obviously could not prevent Kiev from joining NATO, but believed that it can "minimise consequences" of Ukraine's move towards the alliance. It was not explained what exactly this "minimisation" meant and it seems that this was the essence of the Kremlin’s response. Earlier, Putin called the situation in Ukraine a deadlock. He even admitted that he "does not really understand how to get out of it." Although this sounds scary at first, but in fact Putin’s statement can be decrypted as something like "send us your proposals and we will consider them". What’s that if not raising the bets?

Meanwhile, what really worries Mr. Putin and his team is that NATO can deploy missiles in Ukraine (and Georgia) disguised as training centres. After all, it is highly likely that this was the real motive of all the statements made by Mr. Austin, not full membership of these post-Soviet republics in NATO. By the way, Georgia and Ukraine cannot be full members of the alliance due to their territorial conflicts either. But this does not change the essence of the problem for Moscow anyway. Therefore, Russian media outlets make alarming statements about, for example, the reconstruction of Ukrainian port in Ochakov as a naval operational command centre, only 15 kilometres away from Crimea. They also provide further analysis of the situation, noting that under the current circumstances, the Kremlin may recognise the independence of separatist republics and attach them to Russia to further strengthen its western borders.

New plan

This scenario is not good for regional stability, although it is clear that at least the degree of confrontational rhetoric will rise. This trend will continue up until the world powers agree upon the new principles of relationship between each other, at least approximately. After all, it is obvious that the rules set after the Second World War are outdated and do not work any more.

As mentioned above, both NATO and Russia raise the degree of confrontation with each other constantly. Thus, NATO's new ‘defense plan’ defines the actions of the alliance in the event of a large-scale military conflict with Russia, and allows for conducting military operations from the Baltic to the Black Sea region. And that says it all, unambiguously. In parallel, the Russian Foreign Ministry made a move that broke its relations with NATO. The ministry announced the closure of the Russian permanent mission to NATO for an indefinite period, as well as suspension of operations of NATO’s military mission and information bureau in Russia. It was Moscow’s response to the expulsion of eight members of the Russian mission to NATO accused of espionage. The closure of the Russian mission to NATO is a very significant message from the Kremlin. Moreover, this happened right after Victoria Nuland's visit to Moscow.

Probably, Moscow is confident that the West will not be able to act against Russia as a united front.  It becomes encouraged by the energy and systemic problems in the West. Problems with natural gas supplies put the EU in an extremely difficult position as high prices for gas negatively hit the European economy. Will Brussels sacrifice its principles on Georgia and Ukraine in this situation? Russian Foreign Ministry made a categorical statement in this context: "The EU is increasingly losing its political weight in the international arena, replacing its own will with that of NATO." What about the fate of the Nord Stream 2 project then? Moscow does not hide its intention to reduce supplies through Ukraine thanks to this pipeline, because its a profitable alternative due to the reduced distance and transit fees.

Consequences

Apparently, Kiev will lose transit tariffs to its budget, just as Ukrainians wouldn’t be able to heat their homes in winter. Ukrainian authorities were unable to create coal reserves for the coming winter. Today they reach about 800,000 tons, while about 2.5 million tons are necessary. The opposition is already putting forward accusations...

It may seem that Austin's statements sound reassuring at a very necessary moment for Kiev. But it is likely that the West is simply using Ukraine as a tool in the fight against Russia. Shortly before Austin's visit to Kiev, Forbes published a very cold article about Ukraine. Author said that the Western aid and foreign investments are unlikely to help Ukraine, since the US is experiencing own problems at home both in the national economy and logistics amid the disorderly withdrawal from Afghanistan.

The American Conservative expressed a similar sentiment, saying that it was obvious that the White House lowered Ukraine’s priority in its foreign policy agenda even during the visit of President Zelensky to Washington on September 1. Therefore, Ukraine is at risk of getting its Western aspirations sacrificed to larger American-European geopolitical interests...

In Georgia, where the United National Movement (UNM) continues to demand freedom for the former president Mikhail Saakashvili, the situation is developing in a similar way and may get even worse should the opposition consolidates forces against the Georgian Dream. It’s like playing a completely new game with old cards. But how much resources does Tbilisi have left for this game? Especially considering the difficult economic situation, pandemic, the changing situation in the South Caucasus... In other words, as they like to define in the Western think tanks, the large Black Sea region may turn into one continuous zone of geopolitical turbulence by the end of autumn. And if we paraphrase Mr. Putin's words, it is not yet clear how this unpleasant state of affairs can be overcome and what will be the consequences in the worst case.