ANNIVERSARY SUMMIT

On October 15, Minsk hosted the anniversary summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States. At the end of this year, the organisation celebrates its 30th anniversary. So, the anniversary summit was supposed to wrap up not only the results of the Belarusian chairmanship, but also the achievements during the entire period of its existence.

Remarkably, two topics of discussions had special relevance on the CIS agenda: security in the post-Soviet space and increasing the effectiveness of cooperation in health protection. The latter is closely related to the fight against the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic.

Safety is priority #1

Even before the October 11 summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin, at a meeting with permanent members of the Security Council, proposed to discuss cooperation with the CIS partners. These discussions preceded the 17th meeting of the Heads of Security Agencies and Intelligence Services of the CIS Member States held on October 13 in Moscow. It is important for Russia that the security situation of CIS partners is predictable and stable and that the risks for all participating states, including Russia itself, are mitigated by joint efforts, which will help to create a common platform for cooperation, a common security ground for all the member states. The Kremlin’s message was heard by other participants, who outlined their own priorities dictated by the situation developing along the perimeter of their borders.

For each of the countries, the emerging priorities ultimately motivate them to join efforts to ensure the security of the entire Commonwealth. Implementation of this task is becoming increasingly difficult every year. External borders of the CIS become increasingly an object of direct and indirect threats, which is not possible to constrain individually.

Thus, after the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan, frontiers of CIS with Afghanistan become under direct military-political risks. There is a growing tension along the borders of Belarus with the EU and NATO, in particular due to the problems with refugees. There are tensions along the Azerbaijani-Iranian border, threatening stability in the Caspian region.

Remarkably, on October 6, during a meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir Abdollahian, the former expressed Azerbaijan's concern about the military escalation on the border. After all, this step is well in line with the priorities of cooperation within CIS to ensure the security of its external borders.

There is also an obvious intention to prevent the development of conflicts within the CIS, which seriously impede the implementation of tasks to create a single platform for security between the member states. Moscow expects, at least in light of the current challenges, that these conflicts do not create risks for further fragmentation of the post-Soviet space.

Settlement of conflicts through security in CIS

Before the CIS summit, Colonel-General Anatoly Sidorov, Chief of the CSTO Joint Staff, said that the agreements reached between Baku and Yerevan with the mediation of Moscow make it possible to achieve a final political settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Thus, he made it clear that there was no special need to use the OSCE Minsk Group in the conflict resolution. We can assume that this is also the opinion of the Russian military leadership.

“Thanks also to the mediation efforts of Russia, we could stop the hostilities. Existing agreements contribute to the development of necessary conditions to finalise the political settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis,” Sidorov said during the briefing.

This implies that the CIS has a potential to resolve such complex problems without attracting external actors and influence.

At the CIS summit, President Ilham Aliyev said that Azerbaijan suffered not only from the long-term Armenian aggression, but continues to heal the wounds to this day. Nevertheless, war and conflict have already become the things of the past. “We are ready to start negotiations with Armenia on the delimitation of borders subject to mutual recognition of territorial integrity. We are also ready to start negotiations on concluding a truce with Armenia. Azerbaijan, as a winning country, is ready to normalise relations. We hope that the leadership of Armenia will not miss this historic chance,” President Aliyev said.

In fact, he urged Yerevan to start consultations on all the remaining issues without delay, and without leaving the context of trilateral agreements between the CIS states, which also signed this statement.

Yerevan plays up to Iran, forgets about the CIS priorities

Unfortunately, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan continues to appeal to the Minsk Group, which is against the general tone of statements of the CIS heads of state to jointly resolve the existing problems.

As to increasing the efficiency of protecting external borders of the Commonwealth, it is worth noting that for more than 25 years, the 130-kilometer section of the Azerbaijani-Iranian border was under the control of Armenian invaders, hence was actually not guarded. This made it possible for some circles in Iran close to security forces to securely deliver drugs from Iran to Armenia to Europe. President Aliyev drew attention to this situation, saying that by controlling the border line in the south-west of Azerbaijan, Baku blocked this route for drug trafficking. As a result, over the past year, there has been a significant increase in attempts to smuggle drugs from Iran to Azerbaijan. The volume of drug cargo intercepted by Azerbaijani border guards has doubled.

Pashinyan tried to explain these facts by the increase volumes of drug trafficking in general. He noted that the Armenian border and customs services recorded even a threefold increase. Remarkably, the blocking of delivery channels by Azerbaijan forced the dealers to redirect drugs through those sections of the border controlled by Russian border guards. In previous years, the traffickers were afraid that their cargo would be detained by Russians, hence the delivery through these sections was limited. This risk remains even today. But now, having no other opportunity, smugglers are trying to use this section, redirecting flows from Garabagh to Armenia.

After the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan, attempts to deliver drugs across the borders of the CIS countries, including in the Caucasus, will only increase.

President Aliyev once again underlined that it is the joint efforts of all the member states that can help to resist the threat of drug trafficking, while the actions of Armenia do not fit the context of decisions made by the Commonwealth.

Economy, healthcare and shared values

In general, the summit confirmed the intention of member states to coordinate their actions to improve security of the region, to intensify humanitarian contacts, strengthen economic cooperation, and coordinate actions in healthcare.

The coronavirus pandemic, lockdowns adopted by states over the past year have seriously limited trade and economic ties between the CIS countries. However, the rapid recovery of economies in the post-pandemic period made it possible to boost cooperation quickly and exceed the indicators of the pre-pandemic period.

According to statistical data, the volume of trade between the CIS member states increased by almost 27% in 1H2021. One can therefore expect that by the end of this year the countries reach steady growth and this trend continues in the future. It is no coincidence that in the joint statement adopted at the end of the summit, the heads of the CIS member states noted the common task for all be "further materialising the potential of the Commonwealth, strengthening its position in the international arena, and ensuring further dynamic development."

To a large extent, this is facilitated by the effective operation of mobile application Travel without COVID-19 to ensure smooth movement of the CIS citizens and simplified system of control and verification of test results. More than 3,800 medical points in the CIS have already been connected to the project. Further introduction and distribution of this application in CIS will help expand business contacts, restore tourism, and encourage the development of joint projects, including in the field of investments. So, hopefully the goals announced at the summit will not remain on paper.