TRICKY MANOEUVRERS

Politicians, media and experts still actively discuss the development of events between  Azerbaijan and Iran. There is still no consensus whether there is a temporary pause or whether the crisis in mutual relations is over and the tension gradually decreases.

Meanwhile, experts fairly advise to make a difference between the hot phase of events and long-term processes. But the existing realities along the borders of South Caucasian countries often remain beyond the focus of these long-term processes. For example, how the fighting in the Araz valley, the offensive of the Azerbaijani army, and the liberation of the 130-kilometre section of the Azerbaijani-Iranian border previously occupied by Armenia changed the situation.

Invisible frontiers

It is known that any state begins with borders. It is not only a matter of internal security, but also of international obligations, including in very delicate areas from combatting smuggling to sanctions.

Therefore, we can imagine how valuable for Iran was the 130 km section of the border line uncontrolled by any legal authorities.

Many realities of the occupation period become clear only now. As it turned out, the occupied section of the Azerbaijani border with Iran was very actively used for drug trafficking.

Iran is one of the main routes for drug smugglers from Afghanistan. Back in the mid-2000s, there were serious assumptions in Azerbaijan that Iranian drug smugglers enjoyed a large-scale government support. After all, it would be nearly impossible to run a drug traffic network in a country like Iran with a rigid Islamic regime without green light from the above. Moreover, drug trafficking was used as one of the tools of subversive activities against Azerbaijan. At the same time, drug business is a big business and it causes an addiction more severe than the consumption of drugs. Especially when the country is under sanctions, and needs money for everything from missiles for the Yemeni Houthis to artillery for the Lebanese Hezbollah, etc.

Therefore, a huge section of the border occupied by Armenia and void of any legal control by anyone but Iran was a wide gateway for traffickers.

Speaking at the CIS summit, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev said: “After Azerbaijan regained control of the 130 km section of the border with Iran, which was under the control of Armenia for about thirty years, we prevented drug trafficking from Iran through the Jebrayil region of Azerbaijan to Armenia and further to Europe. This suggests that for 30 years Armenia, in agreement with Iran, used the former occupied territories of Azerbaijan to deliver drugs to Europe. During the occupation, I have repeatedly said that these territories were used for drug trafficking and for training of terrorists. Today it is a proven fact." Mr. Aliyev further noted that the volume of heroin seized by Azerbaijan at other sections of the Azerbaijani-Iranian border has doubled compared to the same period of previous years.

After this speech, Azerbaijani border guards detained three high-speed boats of Iranian smugglers in the Caspian Sea. Although the search found only cigarettes and not heroin, it looked like the violators were probing the route.

Azerbaijani political scientist, member of parliament, Rasim Musabeyov, said: “Even before the liberation of these territories, Azerbaijan has repeatedly signalled that 130 km of its border line with Iran, not controlled by Baku due to the occupation of these lands by Armenia, were used for drug trafficking. Nobody wanted listen to us, although it was an obvious fact. There were no customs posts in those territories, no full-fledged border forces. Therefore, drugs were freely transported through the occupied territories to Armenia." Then, they were forwarded to Europe.

So, you can imagine the volume of Tehran’s losses and passions among the Iranian officials. According to Mr. Musabeyov, it is quite possible that Iran's hysteria over Azerbaijani control on the Goris-Gafan road is also associated with the drug business.

Heroin and more

Even a quick analysis of news shows that the problems along Azerbaijan’s borders were not limited to drug trafficking only. The uncontrolled border line was also used for bypassing sanctions imposed on Iran.

Azerbaijani authorities have regularly stated that they would not allow anybody to turn the country into an anti-Iranian platform. Baku was in no hurry to join the Western anti-Iranian campaigns. At the same time, Baku treated the sanctions regime with due seriousness. Either way, when a trailer loaded, as stated in the documents, with roofing iron was detained at the customs post in Astara turned out to be delivering a special type of steel for rocket engines to Iran, strictly forbidden to be imported to the country, this was also a clear signal that Baku would not allow Azerbaijan to be turned into an anti-Iranian stronghold, nor to a backyard of Iran, where it could do whatever it wished to do.

But Iran seems to have easily reached an agreement with Armenia. Back in 2007, Iran and Armenia started talks in Yerevan about the construction of a large oil refinery in Meghri on the border of Armenia and Iran. Many experts believed that the tiny Armenian market simply did not need so many oil products. But by that time the Iranian oil industry was already under sanctions and Tehran needed to somehow get its oil industry running as before. They obviously could not take the oil and gas fields abroad, but they could easily do a trick with refining oil abroad.

Also, in October 2018, John Bolton, National Security Advisor to the US President, made a large-scale visit to the region. It is known that apart from discussing issues related to conflict settlement, Mr. Bolton discussed other issues with the leaders of the South Caucasian states. Interestingly, his so-called Bolton Plan for the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict was more in the interest of Azerbaijan than of Armenia. An equally important issue was the sanctions imposed on Iran. Thanks to many leaks following Bolton’s visit, we know that it was the issue of anti-Iranian sanctions that he could not agree with Pashinyan. It is not hard to guess why: because the same section of the border was actively used to bypass Iranian sanctions.

What about Azerbaijan?

This circumstance turns the current crisis into a sort of test. The issue goes beyond the relations between Yerevan, Tehran, and Baku. Especially amid the increased tensions after mullahs led by the incumbent president Ibrahim Raisi came to power in Iran.

At first glance, tension between Azerbaijan and Iran may seem like a purely local problem with a historical background going back to the Turkmenchai Treaty. In fact, it’s also demonstrative of Iran’s readiness to normalise relations with the outside world, or its intention to continue the propagation of the conflict ideology and confrontation. The role of Armenia in Iran's plans to bypass the sanctions is a question that concerns not only and not so much Azerbaijan, but the leading powers behind the sanctions regime against Iran. The stronger Iran holds on to Armenia and its transport corridors beyond Azerbaijan’s control, the more nervous is Tehran about checks on the Goris-Gafan road section, and the more are reasons to think about Tehran's global intentions.