GEOPOLITICAL MIGRANTS

Belarus has topped the world headlines for several weeks. News are indeed remarkable: there are several thousand migrants from Syria and Iraq on the country's border with Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia... Apparently, now it is Minsk’s turn to be in the headlines of news covering the migration crisis, despite its obvious farness from the Middle East and Afghanistan.

It seems migrants have found another way to reach the long-wished Europe, but the authorities of Riga, Vilnius, and especially Warsaw, did not appreciate their ingenuity and refused to accept the defectors. Meanwhile, the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko was accused of using migrants as a weapon against the EU. Passions have somewhat cooled after the German Chancellor Angela Merkel called to Alexander Lukashenko. The leaders reached an agreement to solve the problem at the Minsk-EU level and with the participation of international refugee organisations, although later both sides complained that there were no contacts anyway.

According to various estimates, there are 10,000-20,000 refugees on the EU borderline concentrated in different locations along the borders of Poland and the Baltic states, in logistics centres. Most of them do not want to return and are ready to wait for a convenient moment. Some of them periodically try to storm the border fortifications.

Different interests

Perhaps this story is a bright example of how each side uses it to its own advantage.

In principle, everything is very clear with the motives of migrants (and only with them): they just want a better life and security. It is very difficult to foretell to what extent they have succeeded and will succeed, especially amid the winter season, which will not make it possible to group in Belarus streets for a long time, or even in tent camps or special refugee centres. This and only this issue should now worry all the parties involved and the international community most of all.  Alas, this is not the case though...

Now let's try to understand the motives and interests of Belarus. Western media openly blames Minsk for the concentration of refugees at the Polish and Lithuanian borders. They claim that the current migration crisis is Lukashenko’s attempt to lift sanctions and to get officially recognised by the European leaders as a legitimate president of Belarus. The German Bild reported that Minsk allegedly demanded that Berlin recognise its legitimacy, as well as financial assistance for the republic. On the contrary, Lukashenko denies everything noting that such requests are beneath his dignity, that he does not care at all whether he is considered legitimate in the West or not. This is why many in Europe were outraged by Angela Merkel’s telephone conversation with Lukashenko, as well as the conversation between the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell and the Belarus Minister of Foreign Affairs Vladimir Makei. “Her (Merkel’s) behaviour is one of the worst moments in history, when the countries of Central Europe were treated as objects of political bargaining,” said MEP and former Polish Prime Minister Beata Szydlo.

Indeed, if we look at the situation from this angle, then Lukashenko achieved his goal: Europeans indeed adequately regard and negotiate with him. The footage of Middle Eastern refugees were quite effectively replaced by the footage of protests in Belarus last year. It is also noted that this is how Lukashenko wished to take revenge on Poland and Lithuania, which more than any other country demanded the EU to cut any ties with Minsk. Now it is Poles and Lithuanians who refuse to accept freezing and hungry refugees, but everyone knows the painful attitude of Warsaw to this topic. And it is difficult to explain how the calls for the respect to human rights fit into this picture, although everything is clear without explanation. It is also clear that Minsk has its own claims to Warsaw, which openly supports the leaders of the Belarusian opposition.

As a counterargument, there are calls to stop Lukashenko from blackmailing his neighbours and the EU using the migration flows. It is also said that in Belarus, migrants are actually in a safe country and, in fact, can apply for asylum. Some observers believe that Warsaw and Vilnius, instead of being regarded as countries violating fundamental human rights, can get a reputation of victims. The victims close to Russia, which adds a lot to the context of the situation. The Americans will now be unable to criticise Warsaw over media freedom or the use of coal in the power industry. Remarkably, there are not many comments from Berlin. One can recall the vain calls of Germany a few years ago to help it with the distribution of the hundreds of thousands refugees. As opposed to only a few dozen of them along the Belarus border. In addition, some observers point out that the ongoing migrant crisis helped Poland correct its internal political problems, or rather the conservative government of Law and Justice improve its performance.

Consequences as part of the global game

Meanwhile, Washington decided to go even further. The US Secretary of State said that according to the planned scenario, Belarus's actions on the border with Poland should divert attention from the Russian-Ukrainian border. And that it is Moscow that is the instigator of the ongoing development. Americans claim that this is Moscow’s attempt to get Belarus even more isolated from the West, making it more dependent on itself. But it is not clear how dependent Belarus has become, as various political scientists and experts constantly predict. In fact, foreign companies operating in Russia are incurring losses due to the crisis with the migrants, as it increased the time several times for cargo trucks to cross the Polish-Belarusian border. The number of trucks concentrated at the Belarus border trying to enter Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland already reaches thousands. Meanwhile, a day of idle time for one truck costs at least €500. This creates the risk of a shortage of imported goods in Russia and, quite expectedly, may cause an increase in prices. About 10% of Russian imports pass through the border of Belarus and the EU (with Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland), with more than 90% of deliveries done by road transport.

Therefore, it is not surprising to hear arguments from Russia that the situation at the Polish-Belarusian border is part of a global game of re-division of the world and a new Cold War of the West against Russia. After all, Minsk is Russia's closest ally, while Poland and the Baltic states are active members of NATO. Also, the Russian media makes an unambiguous emphasis on the fact that the crisis with migrants flared up right after Minsk and Moscow approved 28 integration programs. Also, there are reports about a group of American commandos parachuted on the border of Latvia and Belarus, and so on.

Meanwhile, all observers unanimously agree that situation will not get worse, primarily because of the scale of the problem. Secondly, there is no reason to take risks, no matter how cynical it may sound. The EU has already promised to provide €3.5 million to support the voluntary return of migrants from Belarus back to respective countries. Indeed, it is easier to settle the matter financially than to inflate a serious international problem. Unless, it is yet another probe for a new rivalry between the Kremlin and the West. For example, The National Interest called the crisis with migrants a problem that has grown into a real crisis of European security. Given the current concentration of military forces on both sides, as well as the recently created Russian-Belarusian air and missile defense centre in Grodno next to the vulnerable Suwalki corridor between Poland and the Baltic states, it is difficult to disagree with the conclusions.

Moreover, the authors of the report point out that "the West should start an all-out diplomatic campaign in the UN to draw public attention to the risks that the use of migrants as a weapon poses for the right of refugees and asylum seekers to protection." The point about the use of migrants as a weapon barely noticed by a few people is of particular interest in this case. It may be the real reason for such special attention to the border situation between Belarus and Poland. Perhaps many remember how a few years ago Europe was frightened by the inflow of refugees from the Middle East and North Africa. Amid the aggravating climatic, pandemic, and food problems throughout the world, as well as constantly emerging hybrid wars here and there, crowds of refugees increasingly become quite a significant geopolitical factor. Thus, it is better if countries have a set of tools to respond to it.