NEW AGENDA

On November 19, it was announced that President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan agreed to the proposal of the President of the European Council Charles Michel to hold a meeting in Brussels. On the initiative of the EU, the meeting will take place on December 15 as part of the Eastern Partnership summit of the European Union (EU).

Remarkably, a week earlier Pashinyan actually refused a meeting with Aliyev in Moscow organised by the Russian President Vladimir Putin. Observers are still arguing whether this behaviour of the Armenian prime minister was dictated by a desire to show dissatisfaction with Moscow's policy in the region, or it was based on Pashinyan’s intention to demonstrate his pro-Western position once again.

However, this is no longer important, as, unexpectedly for many, even before the Brussels meeting, Pashinyan still had to meet with Aliyev in Russia. Not in Moscow, but in Sochi; not on November 9, but on November 26. This by no means did not prevent the participants from adopting concrete decisions. We will discuss the results of the Sochi meeting later, but for now, for greater clarity, we will review the course of events in chronological order.

Attempts to disrupt peace

The events of last weeks preceding the Sochi meeting demonstrated that the military and political leadership of Armenia again tried to obstruct the implementation of the post-war agreements through a series of provocations on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border line. Moreover, hiding behind the backs of Russian peacekeepers and border guards, Yerevan once again tried to provoke a crisis in the Azerbaijani-Russian relations.

Initially, the key actor of this event was the former Minister of Defense of Armenia Arshak Karapetyan. Following his provocative visit to the Armenian-populated part of Garabagh on November 10, about 60 Armenian militants attempted to disrupt communications connecting a couple of border posts of the Azerbaijani army by installing barrage facilities and gaining a foothold near the Garagol Lake.

In expectation of long and harsh winter months, Armenian military has probably decided to use the favourable weather conditions to prevent the Azerbaijani side from gaining a foothold in these positions. Especially on the eve of possible agreements on border demarcation.

However, thanks to the timely actions of Azerbaijani units, the Armenian military was besieged and disarmed.

Thanks to the mediation of the Russian border guards at the request of the Armenian military leadership, it was possible to avoid a more serious incident. At the same time, Baku's adequate reaction suggests that if such provocations are repeated, Azerbaijan may take more stringent retaliatory measures, up to and including the use of weapons.

It is also possible that Yerevan was expecting Azerbaijan to take exactly these measures, counting on the intervention of Moscow. It seems that our neighbours are still counting on changing the balance of power in the region through Russia's active intervention in the military confrontation on the side of Armenia.

Inglorious campaign

However, the fiasco of the Armenian military led to the inglorious resignation of Karapetyan, who was found the only culprit responsible for the failure of the operation. On November 15, Armenian President Armen Sarkissian replaced Arshak Karapetyan with Suren Papikyan, as the new Armenian Minister of Defense.

However, the appointment of Papikyan known for his proximity to Pashinyan did not mean that the military-political leadership of Armenia finally decided to start the implementation of the remaining post-war agreements and abandoned its plans to exacerbate tensions on the border. Thus, at about 11.00 on November 16, Armenians launched a sudden military operation trying to settle on the heights in the vicinity of the border positions in the Kalbajar and Lachin districts of Azerbaijan. As a result of a counteroffensive, Armenian militants were disarmed and detained, with a large number of various weapons and ammunition confiscated. The enemy's military equipment was destroyed. Both sides suffered casualties. In Yerevan, they admitted that they lost four positions in the border zone.

The incident once again showed that neither in military nor in political terms, Armenia does not have a certain degree of self-sufficiency, which would allow it, relying on its own forces, to solve the existing problems with Azerbaijan. At the same time, Moscow, whose mediation efforts have made it possible to extinguish tensions between Baku and Yerevan, has once again demonstrated its political advantage over other players in resolving ongoing disputes in the region.

In addition, Russia again denied the Armenian interpretation of events, which presented Azerbaijan as an aggressor in this situation. Thus, Moscow prevented itself from being drawn into the conflict on the side of Armenia, which could undermine its advantageous position as the key regional intermediary.

Some believe that it was the annoying appeals of Armenia to Russia for assistance that made it possible for Russian leadership to urge Pashinyan to meet in Russia.

Brussels is not Sochi, or on the nuances of negotiating dynamics

Thus, the Armenian Prime Minister had to agree to holding negotiations in Sochi before the meeting in Brussels, which is another achievement of the Russian diplomacy, which could push its position before the Belgian summit.

The meeting in Brussels cannot compete with the one in Sochi for a number of reasons. Primarily because, unlike Russia, the EU does not have sufficient leverage in the South Caucasus. Therefore, holding of discussions on specific details was not expected in Brussels.

On the other hand, it is important to note that the Russian side has specifically insisted on holding the talks on November 26, that is before the November 29 meeting of the joint commission on unblocking communications in the South Caucasus. It is assumed that the leaders had to confirm the schedule of the planned works prepared and presented to them the day before. Among the documents reviewed by the commission may be estimates and projects for the restoration of communications for 2022.

Cautious optimism amid hopes

The Sochi meeting began with a promising greeting from the Presidents of Azerbaijan and Russia. With their gestures and statements Ilham Aliyev and Vladimir Putin demonstrated the coincidence of approaches, as well as the mutual trust and understanding between the two leaders. Mr. Aliyev clearly demonstrated his intention to underline the positive achievements during the year following the war, to show that the ongoing post-conflict processes are irreversible. He noted the productivity of the trilateral format and the exceptional role of Russia in post-conflict processes. At the final press conference he said "we had a very detailed, sincere conversation on these issues. We openly discussed our plans, issues of concern to both sides. And the main thing is that our decisions on the settlement of disputes and disagreements will contribute to the situation in the South Caucasus being safer and more predictable.”

Mr. Putin, who took over the moderation of the peacekeeping process, also emphasised the obvious advantages of the trilateral format and the effectiveness of approaches formulated by Moscow.

Armenian Prime Minister looked rather irritated though. While the presidents of Azerbaijan and Russia never mentioned the word “conflict” in relation to the current situation, Pashinyan repeatedly made it clear that the conflict was not over, bringing forward the issue of the “prisoners of war” and “hostages”. He was the only one who mentioned the Minsk Group and called for updating its participation in post-conflict agreements. At the same time, Pashinyan stressed that recently a principled agreement was reached on a direct connection between Azerbaijan and Armenia and appreciated its importance. This initiative was adopted with the mediation of the European Union.

Perhaps before the Eastern Partnership summit and being dependent on the reaction of the Armenian diaspora, Pashinyan tried to strengthen his image of a democratically elected leader, with his seemingly independent line of behaviour. Perhaps that is why he sabotaged the first meeting, which Russia wanted to coincide with the anniversary of the signing of the trilateral agreement to end the war in Garabagh.

Nevertheless, Nikol Pashinyan had to admit that the Sochi meeting was positive. “It is very positive that we have clarified our positions on many issues. It turned out that there were no discrepancies on some issues, as it seemed before this meeting,” the Armenian leader said.

Declaration of Victory

An important achievement of the meeting was the signing by the leaders of Armenia, Russia, and Azerbaijan of a trilateral statement, which provides for the establishment of a bilateral commission on the delimitation of the state border between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Another positive factor contributing to the post-war settlement is the fact that the final statement of the three leaders did not mention anything about the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, or about the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, or about the OSCE Minsk Group, which had exhausted itself long before the war. Thus, the spirit of the statement, its main meaning boils down to a new agenda developing in the region, which leaves the conflict behind.

Remarkably, all parties of the Sochi meeting underlined the significance of the restoration and development of trade, economic, and transport links. Apparently, the parties agreed with the proposals developed by the commission on unblocking communication lines and presented yesterday by the Russian Deputy Prime Minister A. Overchuk.

Apparently, Yerevan nevertheless learned a lesson from an adequate Azerbaijan's response to the border provocation on November 16. Now Mr. Pashinyan has to be more accommodating in the issue of opening the Zangezur Corridor. By the way, the majority of observers noticed that the expression "transport corridors", which the Armenian side so avoids, was also used by the Russian President Vladimir Putin. One of the provisions of the Sochi statement concerns the opening of rail and road communications, which confirms the words of the President of Azerbaijan that the Zangezur corridor will be open in any case.

In general, the meeting of the leaders of Azerbaijan, Russia, and Armenia in Sochi was a landmark event in the post-conflict history of the region. First of all, it confirmed the relevance of the ongoing developments to unblock communications and form a new regional order based on an effective security system. It is also fundamentally important that the parties agreed to continue joint activities to create a trilateral commission on delimitation with subsequent demarcation of the border line.

Thus, the ongoing processes become irreversible and gradually eliminate confrontation in the region leading it to a more stable and predictable future, where the interests of states will go in parallel with the interests of neighbour countries thanks to the 3+3 formula.