FIVE MINUTES TO WAR

Apparently, the spikes of tension between Russia and NATO is getting an increasingly protracted character. Since 2015-2017, the confrontation has progressed toward a clearly military one. But the escalation of tensions can result in unpredictable consequences, especially amid the absence of a regular dialogue between NATO and Russia.

After 2014, NATO suspended any civilian and military contacts with Moscow, but declared itself open to political dialogue within the Russia-NATO Council (RNC). In recent years, RNC meetings have been held only sporadically due to increasingly complicated relations between the two parties. After an almost two-year break, NATO is now sending signals to Russia about its intention to resume the dialogue under NRC. Perhaps this is also due to the Biden administration's program to transform the relations with Russia to be more predictable.

Strategy 2030: Want peace? Prepare for war!

Military-political containment of Russia is one of the priority missions included in the Strategy 2030 approved at the June 14, 2021 summit of NATO. It is planned to implement this policy in two parallel lines: military-political containment and the continuation of the dialogue. On November 29, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg once again stated that he believed in the possibility of dialogue with Russia, while also emphasising the relevance of collective efforts to counter the Russian policy. “I believe in dialogue with Russia, this is our neighbour. We need to reduce potential risks that might arise. To deter Russia from attacking a NATO member, we need to show that we are as united as ever," Stoltenberg said.

Dialogue with Moscow does not mean the revision of current plans to strengthen NATO's defensive power from the Baltic to the Black seas. NATO is committed to its strategy of maintaining a limited military presence in the Baltic Sea, while at the same time improving and strengthening its military potential in critical or conflict situations. Like the four combat groups in Poland and the Baltic states, as well as strengthening air patrolling. The same applies to the Black Sea region, where the alliance holds periodic rotation of ground forces and enhances the level of air-patrol operations. Other measures include reforming the NATO Response Force, increasing the combat readiness of national armies, creation of new and adaptation of existing general staffs of the member states to the needs of collective defense. Also, NATO expands multinational corps and divisions on the Eastern flank, increases military mobility and the ability to protect sea routes in the Atlantic, and holds military exercises for rapid reinforcement.

Currently, both Russia and NATO are improving their concepts of warfare based on the respective plans and scenarios of military campaigns. At the same time, NATO's priorities are regional military plans, which provide for a quick response to any unforeseen circumstances.

Moscow is particularly concerned about NATO’s plans for upgrade and building up its military potential in the immediate vicinity of Russian borders. The development of multinational military staffs means the involvement of various countries in NATO preparations, which increases the degree of military-political tensions along the Russian borders. It is expected that NATO starts to increase the overall funding for military infrastructure development programs on the Eastern flank in 2022.

Another important point in NATO's development in the region is the accent on collective defense. Apparently, NATO believes that to make this initiative true all the Baltic and Eastern European countries should maintain adequate defense spending and fulfil their obligations to strengthen the conventional arsenal of weapons. Active participation of these states in NATO's containment and defense efforts will become more important as the US becomes more involved in military preparations in the Asia-Pacific region.

Military development by all means

On November 30, the US Department of Defense completed a large-scale review started in February and concerning the global deployment of the US military. Thus, the Pentagon expects, among other things, to strengthen its potential to contain Russia in Europe. Washington's new steps in Eastern Europe are to strengthen the regional missile defense systems in the Baltic and the Balkans. Since the summer, the US has begun the deployment of weapons at the missile defense base under construction in Redzikowo in northern Poland. In March, the military base saw the tests of the SPY-1D (V) radar and fire control system (FCS). The construction of the ground-based missile defense base will be completed in 2022. By the way, the first American ground-based missile defense base Aegis in Europe has been operating since 2016 in Deveselu, Romania.

Romania is supplied with the new American NSM anti-ship missiles according to the agreement between the Romanian Ministry of Defense, the US Navy and Raytheon. The delivery of launch systems and missiles is scheduled to be completed by 2024. Previously, NSM missiles were purchased by the Polish Navy.

Aegis ground bases in Romania and Poland, along with four US Navy missile defense destroyers stationed permanently in Spain, are part of a program to build a phased adaptive missile defense system in Europe.

In turn, Russia is strengthening military groups in the districts of Kaliningrad, Voronezh, Pskov, and Leningrad, as well as near the city of Yelnya in the Crimea, along the border with Ukraine.

Presently, there is an echeloned air defense system equipped with S-400 Triumph and Pantsir air defense systems deployed in the south of Russia and in the Crimea. It is expected that the new generation S-500 Prometey air defense system is deployed in the region soon. There are similar systems in the Kaliningrad region of Russia.

Arms race on both sides of the Atlantic and the direct risks associated with the involvement of Ukraine in this process thanks to the US, which is trying to increase pressure on armed groups in Donbass, seriously destabilise the military-political situation in the Black Sea region.

According to President Vladimir Putin, it is clear that the degree of confrontation between the parties can increase to the point when it will be easy to trigger a direct military confrontation.

“If they deploy some strike systems in Ukraine, the flight time [of missiles] to Moscow will be 7-10 minutes and only 5 minutes, if they deploy hypersonic weapons. What should we do in that case? We will have to create something similar to adequately respond to these threats. And we can do it now. We have just tested a sea-based hypersonic missile with a speed of Mach 9. The system will be commissioned starting from the beginning of the next year. The flight time to those who give such orders will also be five minutes. Such threats are the red line for us,” the Russian president said.

Thus, the situation around Donbass and Ukraine will remain a serious trigger for the escalation of tension.

Epicentre of events: Ukraine

On December 1, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said that Ukraine would not be able to stop the war in Donbass without direct negotiations with Russia. Kiev thus hopes to implement a new format of dialogue in the region in parallel with the Norman talks, which have proved to be unproductive so far, and to renew the Minsk negotiation process. “I believe that the Minsk format should be flexible. Nobody says that ‘Minsk’ should be suspended. But I think that several points should be updated,” Zelensky said.

It turns out that the pressure on Moscow through the intensification of hostilities in the Donbass, with insistent demands for direct negotiations with the Kremlin, may become a distinctive political line of the Ukrainian leadership in the future. On the other hand, Moscow's unwillingness to establish direct contacts with Kiev is regarded as unwillingness to take direct responsibility for the ongoing process in Donbass and to break the existing structure, hence the logic of the negotiation process. There is no reason to expect significant changes in the positions of the parties. At the same time, it is unlikely that direct clashes take place between Russian and NATO militaries.

Amid the ongoing confrontation between Russia and NATO, it is remarkable to mention the recent meeting between the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his American counterpart Anthony Blinken on December 2 on the sidelines of the OSCE Ministerial Council in Stockholm. Mr. Blinken said that Russia would face serious consequences if the conflict with Ukraine escalated.

Most observers agree that one of such ‘consequences’ may well be another batch of sanctions. But this time they can hit the Russian economy much more seriously. On December 4, the head of the largest faction in the European Parliament, Manfred Weber (European People's Party), said that in the event of an armed conflict, the commissioning of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline should be completely ruled out and the future German government should clearly indicate this. The statement may be interpreted as a call to abandon the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline completely and to introduce a number of other severe economic restrictions in the NATO member states holding relations with Russia.