REALITIES OF BRUSSELS

On December 14, President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, took part in a joint meeting with the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, and Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan.

The meeting was quite a constructive one, official reports say. The parties agreed to establish a temporary working group to deal with the delimitation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani state border. At the same time, they had substantive discussions on the issue of opening communication and transport lines between the two countries. Armenia reaffirmed its commitment to build a railway line through its territory. It was noted that the necessary works will start soon. Armenia and Azerbaijan also agreed to ensure mutual customs and border control and to continue negotiations on determining the highway route between the two states.

EU position gives hope

Following the results of the trilateral meeting, Charles Michel made a statement. According to AzerTAG, Mr. Michel called for the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict and the signing of a comprehensive peace treaty.

He urged the parties fulfil the obligations stipulated at the meetings and in the statements of November 10, 2020, January 11, and November 26 (Sochi), 2021. The statement says that the EU agenda includes the issue of missing persons, and the significance of clarifying their fate. Incidentally, this is one of the demands Azerbaijan has long put forward to the international community, as 4,000 Azerbaijani nationals are still missing since the First Garabagh War.

Mr. Michel’s statement also expressed support for demining efforts, assistance to people affected by the conflict, and especially reconstruction works.

It was also noted that the EU could provide support as a consultant on the issues of border demarcation and delimitation. The document also says that the European Union supports the development of economic cooperation in the South Caucasus region, proposes to create a joint platform for economic cooperation, is ready to assist in creating communication infrastructure in the region, opening and developing communication lines between the regional states, and to support these projects through economic and investment resources.

The statement especially underlines the construction of the railway line. It is emphasised in the document that customs and border control posts along the railway will be installed on the ground of reciprocity.

Remarkably, for the first time since the end of the Patriotic War, the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia had a chance to talk face to face in Brussels.

Format cannot be re-formatted

The talks between the three leaders were focused on the obligations that Baku and Yerevan have undertaken as part of the trilateral agreements reached thanks to Russia’s mediation. It is no coincidence that the text of Mr. Michel's official statement calls these obligations ‘key’ and notes the commitment of the parties to their implementation. It means that the EU confirms the relevance of the trilateral format with Russia and its importance in the final solution of all the remaining problems. In building a post-conflict peace in the region, Brussels supports the Azerbaijani position calling for the conclusion of a comprehensive peace treaty. This was also confirmed by Charles Michel saying that the EU was commited to close cooperation with Azerbaijan and Armenia in overcoming the conflict and creating an atmosphere of trust ultimately backed up by a comprehensive peace treaty.

Brussels considers positive the launch of the platform for economic consultations "to build confidence, promote peaceful coexistence and build up economic cooperation in the region." This is fully consistent with the new strategy of the EU as part of its Eastern Partnership platform.

Corridor for corridor

Even before the talks with Nikol Pashinyan, Ilham Aliyev met in Brussels with the NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. At a joint press conference following the meeting, Mr. Aliyev publicly clarified Baku's position on the opening of the Zangezur transport corridor. “As for the legal regime of the Zangezur corridor, it should be the same as in the Lachin corridor, because the trilateral statement openly says that Azerbaijan ensures security and uninterrupted communication between Garabagh and Armenia. At the same time, Armenia should ensure the same uninterrupted communication and security between Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. There is no customs checkpoint in the Lachin corridor. There should not be one in the Zangezur corridor either. If Armenia insists on having customs checkpoints along the corridor to control the flow of cargo and people, we will insist on the same in the Lachin corridor. This is logical and it is up to Armenia to make a decision. We agree to both options: customs checkpoints in both of the corridors or no checkpoints at all," Mr. Aliyev said.

As always, Mr. Pashinyan tried to calm down the Armenian audience on his Facebook account, pretending to respond to the Azerbaijani president at the meeting. Yet, as a result of talks that lasted more than four hours, it was decided to proceed with the restoration of railway lines with respective agreements on border and customs control posts on the ground of the reciprocity principle, as proposed by Ilham Aliyev.

What is Brussels after at all?

Contrary to scepticism of some analysts, the Brussels meeting of the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan was way beyond the protocol. Judging from how Brussels was preparing for the talks, it was clear that Charles Michel, on behalf of the EU, would at least ensure the EU’s presence in building a post-conflict peace in the region.

Over the past weeks before the meeting, the EU has continued an active dialogue with the parties and focused on those items of the possible agenda that would guarantee a constant dialogue between the two countries.

On December 1, Luc Pierre Devin, Executive Director of the European Directorate for Russia, Eastern Partnership, Central Asia, Regional Cooperation and OSCE, made a statement in the European Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, which confirmed the EU's intention to become an active participant in the process of building political dialogue between Baku and Yerevan. “I think that the European Union is doing what it can. I do not agree with those who claim that the EU does nothing,” Mr. Devin said reaffirming the practical contribution of European diplomacy to the establishment of dialogue.

On the same day, President of Azerbaijan received the EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus and the Crisis in Georgia, Toivo Klaar, who had previously held talks in Yerevan. The parties discussed bilateral relations, as well as the situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, in particular the aggravation of situation in November, 2021.

Obviously, amid the urgency of the border problem, the EU is looking for opportunities for practical assistance. Back in the summer of 2021, Charles Michel stated that the EU was ready, if necessary, to assist Azerbaijan and Armenia in carrying out the delimitation of the state border. There were no specific proposals from the EU though.

Minsk Group no more

An important stage in the preparation of the Brussels talks could be the meeting between the foreign ministers of the two countries on the sidelines of the OSCE Ministerial Council in Stockholm with the mediation of the Minsk Group co-chairs. However, just before the summit, the Armenian parliamentary delegation made an illegal visit to Garabagh in the zone of temporary responsibility of the Russian peacekeeping forces, which Azerbaijan qualified as a provocation—an obvious negative reaction from official Baku. Eventually, the planned meeting in Stockholm was a failure. Azerbaijan has unilaterally refused to take part in it.

Remarkably, the OSCE Minsk Group has never been mentioned in the statement of the President of the EU Council, Charles Michel, following the December 14 meeting with the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Either way, the Brussels agreements create conditions necessary to satisfy the interests of all the regional and non-regional actors in the South Caucasus, to open up additional prospects for the implementation of the 3+3 format launched a few days earlier. Apparently, the Brussels summit held just before the New Year gave rise to a cautious optimism, which confirms that the region is going to see a gradual realisation of new regional realities, hereby preventing the region from falling back to the conflict-ridden past.