MORE SCANDALOUS THAN BREXIT

February 1 marked two years since Great Britain formally withdrew from the EU. However, the transition period took another year to get the process compatible with the EU laws and regulations.

Britain withdrew from the single market on January 1, 2021, prompting the introduction of a host of new customs formalities and regulations. Brussels immediately imposed border controls, which decreased total British exports to the EU by almost 15%, with agricultural products falling by more than 25%.

The British government, on the other hand, has repeatedly postponed the introduction of many restrictions on imports from the EU, up until January 1, 2022. From that day on, they will be introduced in stages till November this year. The idea is to prevent abrupt shortage of European goods in Britain, especially during the pandemic. In 2020, Britain exported 42% of its goods and services to the EU and imported 50% of them from the continent.

The Federation of Small Businesses supported the decision, as it appeared that even now 75% of British firms were still unprepared for the new import restrictions. However, the National Farmers Union is not happy, arguing that delays in import controls after Brexit have given EU exporters a competitive advantage.

Growing problems

A year ago, Prime Minister Boris Johnson called the signing of trade agreement with the EU a moment Britain regained control of its destiny. But a growing number of voters seem unhappy with the outcome. According to the November 2021 poll, the majority of British residents would vote to return to the EU, including one in ten who voted to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum.

The UK economy shrank by around 1.5% during the transition period only. This was due to the shrinking of investments and the shifting of businesses to the EU in anticipation of higher trade barriers. It is expected, therefore, that the British economy will shrink by somewhere around 4%.

The new trade agreement has left many open issues, including regarding Northern Ireland, fisheries and financial services. Brexit pushed financial companies to move at least some of their operations, employees, assets or legal entities from London to the EU. But this shift has been less than forecast because the pandemic has made the move more difficult.

Under the arrangements, EU fishing vessels can continue to fish in British waters if they get a licence. But they need to prove that they have fished there before—a requirement that small French boats not equipped with proper technology can hardly meet. Hence many boats are denied licences. Last December, France threatened to initiate a legal action if Britain did not settle its licence disputes.

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has promised to reveal in the coming weeks her plans for a new independence referendum before the end of next year. How will the Johnson administration, opposed by almost every Scottish Conservative MP, deal with the challenge?

Irish crisis

Although Northern Ireland is part of the UK, it continues to remain in the single European market in order to maintain an open land border with the Republic of Ireland, a member of the EU. This is done so as not to jeopardise the fragile peace on the island.

However, this has created a de facto border in the Irish Sea between the UK and Northern Ireland. And now, according to the interim protocol pending the final agreement, goods entering Ireland from the island are subject to inspection. In addition, the highest judicial authority in Northern Ireland is the European Court of Justice, which has lost its influence in the rest of the UK.

These and other problems, which both sides have been trying to resolve for several years, albeit unsuccessfully, led to a political crisis in Northern Ireland. In early February, the Democratic Unionist Party Minister for Agriculture arbitrarily ordered a halt to inspections at Northern Ireland ports of goods arriving from the UK. This was followed by the resignation of the head of the cabinet, Northern Ireland's First Minister Paul Givan, as a sign of protest against the protocol signed with the EU. Automatically, under the terms of the bipartisan government, his deputy Michelle O'Neill, who represents the opposition nationalist Sinn Féin party, also resigned.

The Northern Ireland government will partly be able to function without leadership until the next election on 5 May. However, the tension within the island's political circles is only heating up.

Incomplete plan

On January 31, on the eve of the two-year anniversary of Brexit, the British Prime Minister unveiled a bill to facilitate what he said was a repeal or amendment of the EU rules copied into the British law before Brexit.

"We have made huge success to capitalise on our newfound freedoms and restore Britain's status as a sovereign, independent country that can determine its own future. The plans we set out today will further unlock the benefits of Brexit," Johnson added enthusiastically.

However, instead of rejoicing, British society suddenly began to express great doubts about the perspectives of development. Governments of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, for example, said they had not been consulted, hence they feared that the new legislation would delegate powers to Westminster in some important areas for them.

Johnson was also accused of rushing to unveil unfinished plans in order to win the support of unhappy Conservative MPs who become increasingly vocal in demanding his resignation.

"If this is the best Boris Johnson can do to keep his job, he is in big trouble," said Liberal Democrat MP Sarah Olney.

Resignation?

Back in January it seemed that Boris Johnson was in no serious danger, including a vote of no confidence from his party. However, things have changed quickly and dramatically.

The prime minister turned out to be an instigator of political crisis dubbed Partygate, as he and members of his staff have allegedly violated the rules of isolation more than ten times, leading to a police investigation. Johnson’s repeated denial of allegations, including in the parliament, have made the situation even worse.

Sanctions for the breaches of COVID restrictions are relatively small. But if an investigation finds that the prime minister has misled the House of Commons, the ministerial code requires him to resign, even if it is not legally binding.

"I’ve got a brilliant new strategy which is to make so many gaffes, that no one knows what to concentrate on," Johnson jokingly said to journalists years ago.

Years later, journalists seem to have found a solution - they focus on all Johnson’s gaffes at once. After all, now there doesn't seem to be a single British media outlet that treats the prime minister positively. Even the conservative The Telegraph and Spectator, where Johnson worked for a long time, have turned against him in earnest. And the Daily Mail, the last outlet loyal to the prime minister, has turned its back on him. Until a week ago, the paper was urging the nation to have a "sense of proportion", condemning overreaction to Partygate. Today it is one of the first to profess the ‘Downing Street debacle’.

It got to the point where 100 of 359 Tory MPs recently voted against legislation introduced by their own government in parliament.

The big question now is whether the Conservative MPs organise the voting of no confidence in the prime minister and replace him by one from among themselves before the police investigation, which can take months, is over. This requires 15% (54) of the votes. A vote of no confidence will be successful if more than 50% of single-party lawmakers vote in favour of the proposal.

Incidentally, Johnson has been heavily criticised not just because of the isolation scandal. He was also accused of making inappropriate comments about the leader of the Labour Party, Keir Starmer. This caused a wave of outrage not only in the opposition but also within his own party. According to various reports, 20-30 Conservative MPs have already announced their demand for the vote of no confidence. Interestingly, some of them have only recently been supporters of Johnson.

Rishi Sunak, British Chancellor of the Exchequer (in fact, the second person in the government), and Health Minister, Sajid Javid, were quick to distance themselves from the Prime Minister's insults against Starmer, saying they did not agree with him.

But the hardest blow to Johnson's position came from a completely unexpected side. His long-term assistant Munira Mirza, who had worked with him for 14 years and never left him, even in his darkest days, announced her resignation. 

She had worked with Johnson since he was Mayor of London, was one of the main architects of the government's political position on a wide range of issues. She left, too, citing unfounded slander against the Social Democrat leader.

Four more resignations from the prime minister's inner circle soon followed, allowing New Statesman to call the incident the Night of theLong Knives in the Downing Street.

There is a chance

Bookmakers and political observers are actively debating which Conservative politician could replace Johnson. Among the most likely candidates are Rishi Sunak, head of the Foreign Office Liz Truss and Jeremy Hunt, who lost Johnson's election for party leader in 2019.

Johnson's problems, experts say, are that the wave of bad news has come at a time when the British prime minister is already noticeably unpopular. As of January 16, before the police announced their investigation into the Downing Street parties, only 22% of respondents said Johnson was doing a "good" job. Seventy-three percent of respondents were dissatisfied with him.

The biggest dissatisfaction with the Johnson government is inflation, which rose to 5.4% in December, the highest in three decades. High prices are caused by several factors, including global food shortages and supply chain gaps created by COVID-19, central bank policies aimed at stimulating economic growth rather than containing prices, and labour shortages exacerbated by changes in labour law following Brexit.

The Conservatives are in an agonising panic. Should they get rid of Boris Johnson, their populist leader, whose cheating and violation of isolation terms has infuriated much of the country and embarrassed his party? Or should they stay with the person who has so far kept them in power thanks to the strong popular support he has maintained even in the darkest moments of the pandemic?

Latest polls show a 3 to 14 point gap between the Tories and the Labour Party. For many Conservative lawmakers this means a possible loss of their seats.

Local elections in the UK are slated for May. If the COVID-19 epidemic eases, the economy improves and the Johnson government is able to conclude a deal with the EU on the border with Ireland that satisfies most Britons, he could still survive a vote of no confidence.