LET GUNS BE SILENT

The deeper is the confrontation between the US-NATO alliance and Russia, the more it looks like a blockbusting detective story. The only difference is that the script of this detective story is entirely improvised, and the authors are not writers, but well-known international politicians. This dramatises the plot, but obviously does not contribute to optimism. After all, the cast of the story is tens of millions of people whose fates have been taken hostage.

Rumours and talks about the intriguing February 7 meeting between the leaders of Russia and France just subsided when no less memorable talks between the US president and the German chancellor took place the next day. On February 9, the French and German leaders, together with the President of Poland, discussed the possibility of new dialogues and summit meetings. This is the reality we are facing today, following the start of events slowly but steadily gaining momentum in and around Ukraine since late 2021.

The US is exacerbating the situation...

While many European politicians openly oppose a military scenario in Ukraine, and Russian representatives continue to assure that they have no plans to invade the country, the White House is trying to convince its partners in the likely invasion of Ukraine by Russia as early as in February.

US President Joe Biden once again had a telephone conversation with his Ukrainian counterpart Vladimir Zelensky in late January and said that a Russian invasion of Ukraine was possible in February. At the same time, he promised to provide Kiev with full support, including military support, but warned that the US was not ready to supply high-tech weapons to Ukraine and move American troops to the country. Mr. Biden also said that as long as Russia does not attack Ukraine, Washington is not going to impose sanctions against Moscow. He also made it clear that the sanctions package was ready and could be adopted immediately after the expected aggression. Regarding the prospects of Kiev's membership in NATO, it was stated that the issue was not currently on the agenda.

Kiev is not in rush, Ankara is supportive

Meanwhile, the support offered by Washington may well be a disservice for Ukraine. We can only assume that President Zelensky was not entirely satisfied with the conversation. A few days later, the Ukrainian president made a public statement against the escalation of situation, saying he did not see a possibility of military action ‘any time soon’. And it is easy to explain Mr. Zelensky’s position.

It is still unclear whether there will be a war or not, but economic consequences of these talks are quite impressive. According to the Ukrainian president, amid alarming information about Russia's possible invasion, more than $12.5bn has already been withdrawn from the Ukrainian economy. Not only foreign investors, but also the local ones are leaving the country.

Ankara is also worried about the escalation of situation around Ukraine. This was clearly demonstrated by the visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Kiev, which was especially important for Kiev amid the talks on a possible outbreak of war and a decrease in the investment attractiveness of the Ukrainian economy.

On the other hand, the Turkish president showed that he was ready to share the Ukrainian authorities' concerns on the issue, calling allegations of a Russian invasion irresponsible. "Our visit takes place at a sensitive time... Unfortunately, some irresponsible statements, published scenarios of occupation are exhausting Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. I approve the statements of Ukrainian officials and first of all Mr. President, who have common sense and put dialogue in the first place," Mr. Erdogan said.

Thus, both Ukraine and Turkey exclude the likelihood of a Russian invasion, which creates conditions for dialogue between Moscow and Kiev, which is what Ankara insists on. Kiev and Ankara consider a war with Russia undesirable, as it can easily turn not only the Ukrainian territory, but also the entire Black Sea region into a battlefield. Turkey, as a NATO country and as a country that does not recognise Crimea as part of Russia, would side with the West and Ukraine in the event of a possible war. But current interests in intensifying cooperation with Moscow, both in bilateral and regional formats, make such a scenario undesirable for the Turkish side. Hence the attempts to mediate a reconciliation between Kiev and Moscow.

Friendship against Russia

The view of European countries on the situation in Ukraine is not optimistic either.

Meanwhile, the US has started the deliveries of new military aid package to Ukraine, which includes lethal and non-lethal weapons. In the first week of February, almost 300 tonnes of military aid were dispatched to Ukraine in three instalments.

In addition, Washington announced its plans to move about a thousand American troops from Germany to Romania and another 2,000 from the US to Germany and Poland. Although the White House press secretary Jen Psaki said that these troops were not intended to be sent to Ukraine, but had the sole purpose of "supporting and reassuring our partners in the region", this did not improve the tense situation. On the contrary, it provoked a nervous reaction in Moscow.

Moreover, the Russian side sent additional forces to Belarus allegedly to improve the effectiveness of the joint military exercises with Minsk. We can only speculate whether the increased American military presence in Eastern Europe provoked this move.

Meanwhile, on February 2, the Spanish newspaper El Pais published the US and NATO's response on security guarantees to Russia. To make it more convincing, the material was accompanied by photos of documents, which, according to the newspaper, were an official response to Russia's proposals.

This did not cause much of a reaction as it did not contain any ‘sensational’ confessions or proposals—only the same statements about the need for dialogue, rejection of the use of force and concessions on the NATO enlargement and other principal issues. In other words, the alleged US/NATO response did not change the geopolitical configuration, but only confirmed the current attitude of Washington and Brussels towards Moscow's stance.

A more interesting statement came from the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmitry Kuleba about the establishment of a trilateral alliance with Poland and the UK. Prior to this, the new format of cooperation had been mentioned in passing by Ukrainian President Zelensky at the Rada, as well as by Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki in Kiev. During his meeting with the British prime minister, Zelensky was more specific about the new format, saying it was a good platform on security and trade issues.

All three countries can join forces not only because they want to be "friends against Russia", but also they have a special relationship with the other two European countries, France and Germany, with whom they disagree on a number of fundamental issues.

Incidentally, during their talks in Moscow, French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz have concentrated more on the possibility of resuming peaceful dialogue and the need to implement the Minsk format. But Kiev is questioning the effectiveness of this format.

In early February, Vladimir Zelensky clearly stated that he considered all points of the Minsk agreements unsatisfactory. "I don't want to talk about the Minsk agreement. I am not satisfied with all the points. We have different views on the order of implementation of certain points. But we are not children. We have to do something that can help de-occupy our territories, in particular to defend our state in one way or another," the Ukrainian leader said.

Paris and Berlin are persuading Kiev to be more concessive with Moscow, particularly on the issue of Donbass, while London and Warsaw have a more uncompromising line of conduct regarding the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation. Kiev may view its relations with the latter two as an alternative to France and Germany, which seriously complicates the current geopolitical agenda.

The Normandy format is more alive than ever

In Moscow, the French leader repeated the relevance of the Minsk format. After his meeting with Vladimir Putin, Emmanuel Macron recalled the need to implement the Minsk agreements in entirety, adding that the work of the Normandy format continued in order to end the Donbass conflict once and foreever.

The Financial Times published an interesting piece of information. It claims that the two leaders agreed that Russia will not venture any new ‘military initiatives’ and will engage in a dialogue on the deployment of armed forces.

Meanwhile, Olaf Scholz travelled to Washington to meet President Joe Biden at the White House for the first time since taking office as German Chancellor. The visit took place on the eve of another important event, the Weimar Triangle meeting in Berlin on February 9.

Mr. Scholz made sure Berlin and Washington were on the same page with regard to developments in the region and then brought together the leaders of neighbouring states also to add relevance to the triangle format of dialogue, in which Germany has a central position  geographically and beyond.

Apparently, this was Berlin’s specific response to London, which, by initiating a new format involving Warsaw and Kiev, has always been on the watch trying to seize the political initiative from its neighbours by relying on its military and diplomatic means. Paris and Berlin, on the other hand, while advocating exclusively diplomatic methods for resolving the crisis, continue to refuse to hand over weapons to Kiev and advocate a new round of talks with Moscow within the Normandy quartet.

The Daily Mail reported that during his meeting with Putin, Macron even suggested that Ukraine should be granted a neutral status, which would rule out the possibility of it joining NATO. NATO capitals were wary of the French president's initiative, saying that all the initiatives he had voiced during the talks with his Russian counterpart had not been approved by NATO allies. They made it clear that the search for compromise also had its limits.

Either way, it is clear that all these troikas, quartets and so on are the trump cards of the West in the game with its arch-rival and partner, Russia. Irrespective of the outcome of this game, the parties understand that a military solution is not promising to be good thing for everyone. Therefore, as long as diplomatic activity continues, there is hope that there will be no war. This is probably the main result of the talks so far, which suits everyone.