ARMENIAN CROSSROADS, OR PASHINYAN’S DEADLOCK?

“The world community accepts the geopolitical reality in the region. Russia is also playing a very important, I would say, a leading role in creating opportunities to normalise relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, open transport communications, and establish normal neighbourly relations. We very much appreciate this role and hope that the Armenian side will implement the statement signed in November 2020 in the same way as we do it,” President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev said during the meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

The issue of unblocking communications has indeed been one of the key issues discussed among politicians and regional experts recently, including in Armenia, where Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan made a resounding announcement on the Armenian Crossroads.

Armenian Crossroads: expectations and reality

Earlier, Pashinyan announced a prequalification tender for the Sisian-Kajaran section of the North-South highway. According to Pashinyan, as a result of discussions on launching regional communications, the North-South project has been reorganised into the North-South, East-West project. “One of the branches of the North-South, East-West route, or the Armenian Crossroads in short, will connect the Republic of Armenia with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The other branches will be between Azerbaijan and Armenia and later between Nakhchivan and Turkey. We put this project in this general context. We hope that by the end of the year we will have a construction company, which will carry out these works. The East-West project has not been agreed yet, but we will reach political agreements very quickly on this project as well,” Pashinyan said. He added that specific works on the construction of the Armenian section of the Yeraskh-Julfa-Ordubad-Meghri-Goradiz railway is underway. He hopes that the agreements will be documented to finalise the process de jure.

Recently, this issue has also been discussed in Munich between the Armenian and Iranian foreign ministers Ararat Mirzoyan and Hossein Amir Abdollahian. They underlined the importance of finalising and signing the agreement on the Persian Gulf-Black Sea transport corridor and working together to organise the sixth expert meeting.

It seems that everything is fine, as Armenia is working on the restoration of communications, including the railway section of the Zangezur corridor, and even developing large-scale transit and logistics plans. But is it so indeed?

Old geography and new realities

During the Soviet period, the railway communication with Iran was going through the town of Julfa in Nakhchivan. For Iran, this was essentially the only access to the railways grid of Russia to European countries. But since the late 1980s, Armenian nationalists have blocked the rail communications in the region, hence escalating the Garabagh conflict. Similarly, the Gyumri-Kars line linking the former Soviet Union countries with Turkey has also remained blocked.

Before the war and the collapse of the USSR, Armenia had indeed the best rail logistics system in the region. It would take a lot of effort to put yourself in a transport blockade with such a railway network… Anyway. In Armenia, they talk about the restoration of the road closed because of the conflict. Yet they take the Arazdayen railway station, or Yeraskh in Armenian, rather than Horadiz as a starting point of the road.

However, the Zangezur corridor, which Armenians do not want to hear about, is part of this road as well. How come?

What about Horadiz?

There is a version that Armenia expects to open the Yeraskh-Julfa road to get access to Iran and to ‘take a break’ with the Zangezur corridor. Yerevan believes that Armenia needs the road to Iran, while the Zangezur corridor is primarily beneficial for Azerbaijan.

However, there are opponents to this idea. Either way, according to Vardan Voskanyan, head of the Iranian Studies Department of the Yerevan State University: “Iran is not planning to change the route of the Persian Gulf-Black Sea multimodal transport corridor and to launch it through Nakhchivan, if the Yeraskh-Horadiz railway is commissioned. It attaches special importance to the completion of Armenia's North-South Motorway project.” To prove this, Voskanyan said that earlier the Iranian Ambassador to Armenia, Abbas Badakhshan Zohuri, mentioned the importance of the alternative transit routes passing through Armenia. “Iran considers North-South one of the key routes for the Persian Gulf-Black Sea corridor. Therefore, the restoration of the railway line between Yerevan and Baku via Meghri should not affect the implementation of the road project,” believes Voskanyan.

Voskanyan's scepticism, which undoubtedly reflects the opinion of very influential circles in Yerevan, is very obvious but unpleasant. No matter how much Yerevan is unhappy with the Armenian Crossroads, it is Nakhchivan that will be the crossroads in case the railway projects are implemented. But Armenia does not want to share dividends from the transit route with Azerbaijan. That is why Yerevan puts all efforts to complete the motorway project first.

Everything goes smooth on paper...

But there are transportation and technical realities. First, even the most sophisticated highways cannot compete with railway lines in terms of capacity and cargo turnover. For example, the one that runs through Nakhchivan and has no alternative in Armenia. The construction of railway via Zangezur to Meghri has been discussed for several years. But as experts warned back in 2016 (we have published their view as well), this would require a construction of a more than 100km-long tunnel with more than 20 km of bridges. In the best-case scenario, this would take seven years to complete and require more than $6 billion. Not surprisingly, investors have not been interested in this option.

Meanwhile, the motorway option does not look that well either. The strategic Yerevan-Meghri highway enters the territory of the Gubadli district of Azerbaijan. But there is an Azerbaijani border and customs checkpoint there. The one that has already brought about $2m to the state budget of Azerbaijan. Armenia has announced an alternative road via Tatev, but so far it is unpaved, while the cargo trucks get stuck in the mud.

Meanwhile, Iran is actively developing cooperation with Azerbaijan, which has the best roads in the post-Soviet space, a commercial port, a railway network, the Astara (Azerbaijan)-Astara (Iran)-Resht road project and, most importantly, is focused on cooperation. “We continue negotiations on the Agreement on the Persian Gulf-Black Sea Corridor between Iran, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Bulgaria and other participants. The sixth round of talks is slated to take place in Sofia between April and May, when the text of the agreement will be ready for signing,” Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Economic Diplomacy Mehdi Safari said.

What does this mean? This means that Armenia risks losing a transit route through Iran the same way it lost the 2020 war.