SIX AGAINST ONE

Recently, six opposition parties of Turkey (Republican People's Party, Good Party, Felicity Party, Democratic Party, Future Party and Party of Democracy and Progress) have adopted a policy memorandum on joint action entitled Strengthened Parliamentary System. This is the latest high-profile political development in Turkey, which was announced on February 28 by the leaders of the above parties and a group of public figures.

The date of announcement was not chosen by chance. Twenty-five years ago, on February 28, 1997, the then Prime Minister of Turkey, Necmeddin Erbakan, had to resign thanks to the combined efforts of the Turkish army and the country's judicial and bureaucratic institutions. The so-called ‘modern coup’ led to the collapse of the Islamist government coalition, which is still considered a serious blow to democracy in Turkey. The head of the country's current ruling party, as well as the leaders of three of the six opposition parties, are a product, albeit directly or indirectly, of the National Vision movement founded by the same Necmeddin Erbakan.

Contents of the document

So what are the clauses included in the Strengthened Parliamentary System signed by Turkey's six opposition parties? The first part of the document, which consists of two sections, contains proposals to reform the presidential system of government. The second part proposes a set of reforms in the Turkish parliamentary system. As part of key actions in this context, it is proposed to lower the electoral threshold for parliamentary elections from the existing 10% to 3% and to abolish the methods of mass changes to laws (the so-called system of ‘sack bills’). It is also proposed to reduce the limit on the number of votes needed to trigger parliamentary enquiries; to provide state support to parties that get at least 1% of the vote; to make the institution of the presidency a neutral, supra-party structure representing the unity of state and nation; to elect the president for one term, reducing it to seven years; to establish a neutral status for the president, who pledges to sever ties with his party after the election and not to interfere in active politics while in office; to ensure that the prime minister is elected from among the members of parliament; to oblige the president to grant the right to form a government to the party with the most seats in parliament; to ensure that the government is formed by simple majority vote, while it resigns if this act is supported by the absolute majority of parliamentarians. The party alliance demands that the prime minister and his cabinet be made individually and collectively accountable to Turkey's Grand National Assembly (parliament).

According to the document, the previous government will be able to function until a new government is formed; the president or cabinet will be able to declare a national emergency only after a parliamentary approval; legislative decrees issued by the government or head of state will no longer be valid; and the courts and investigative authorities will be separated, acting as separate bodies.

It is also proposed to improve the volume of allowances for judges, redefining their duties and powers in line with the rule of law. Fines imposed by international courts for erroneous decisions by local courts would be paid by local judges.

The jointly-approved document also includes clauses on state bodies such as the CEC and the Auditing Chamber; freedom of opinion, expression, media and assembly; stiffer penalties for crimes against women; inclusion of issues related to human rights and gender relations in school textbooks; and ensuring girls' rights to education, including the removal of barriers to it. It would also ensure the full independence and impartiality of state media, including TRT, the Anadolu news agency and the General Directorate of Radio and Television; simplify media registration and make it harder to revoke media accreditation; strengthen anti-corruption measures; and update laws on public procurement and consolidate them under a single law. If the proposed measures go into effect, procedures on trusteeship would be abolished, university rectors could only be elected by the representatives of universities themselves, and a new political ethics law will define the responsibility of officials to uphold the principles of fairness, equality and accountability.

Resetting the political system?

Obviously, the reforms included in the document approved by the six parties will, by and large, cover all spheres of politics and governance offering a comprehensive renewal of them. Adoption of the programme would mean Turkey’s return to pre-2017 parliamentary system of governance, which limits the powers of the president. In other words, it is a proposal for a comprehensive restructuring of Turkey. However, putting the programme into practice will not be easy.

According to the agreement between the parties, during the ‘transition process’, each party will have to go through some internal processing and only then the parties will come together for consultations. Party leaders will then set up joint commissions to organise the proposed works.

It seems that many issues have been already solved theoretically. But what about the practical side of things? Will the opposition parties be able to change the existing laws and how will they use them?

Obviously, in order to implement the points listed above, the six parties or at least one of them must be in power and have an overwhelming majority in parliament. This is required both by the large scope of the proposed changes and the need to put some of them (especially those concerning the presidential term in office and the system of governance), those that require constitutional changes, to a popular referendum. That is why the main issue being discussed among the political experts in Turkey is whether the six parties will become a new political or electoral coalition.

Four of the six parties (Republican People's Party, Good Party, Felicity Party and Democratic Party) are known to have united under the National Union coalition during the 2018 elections. Many political analysts therefore believe that in the coming elections, or in the 2023 elections in the worst case, the six will once again form a single coalition.

However, there are a number of obstacles to set up this coalition. In fact, the six parties have been negotiating on the coherence of their actions in the Turkish political arena since last autumn. At that time, representatives of the parties met to discuss issues of common interest and develop a joint action plan.

But now, with the turning point approaching, the future alliance of the six parties can face complications. For example, according to Turkish media, the Good Party leadership headed by Meral Aksener believes that the more is the number of parties inside the coalition, the more difficult decision-making process will be. Also, having only one vote per party would create a disadvantage for the larger parties. For example, Aksener's supporters are worried that a party with 10-15% of the vote and a party that fails to secure the required minimum votes will have the same vote in the coalition. The Aksener supporters are therefore interested in continuing the struggle with partner parties from the National Union, as there is already an established practice of mutual understanding.

Can the six unite into a single bloc?

Another major issue for the opposition programme is the identity of a single candidate running for president. This is especially required by Turkey's current presidential system. Also, in order to ensure the victory of their candidate in elections, the latter must be a leader as charismatic and strong as Erdogan.

In fact, in recent years, there has not been a political leader from the opposition who could compete with Erdogan because of the latter’s huge political experience, readiness of speech and ability to influence the masses. Erdogan has left behind even a politician with years of parliamentary experience and brilliant oratory skills—Muharrem Ince.

Leader of the Republican People's Party, Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s announcement of his running for president has caused concern among other parties. However, Kilicdaroglu looks much weaker than Erdogan and his candidacy is risky enough for all six parties. That is why they are looking for a younger and more charismatic leader who could relatively easily unite the electorate around him. Kilicdaroglu, on the other hand, does not fully meet the criteria they are looking for, particularly the main ones.

Leader of the Future Party, Ahmet Davutoglu, proposes to change the name and form of the National Union coalition. Moreover, analysts believe that Davutoglu and Ali Babacan (Democracy and Progress Party) are against Kilicdaroglu’s candidacy, hence casting a shadow over assumptions about the Union's electoral success.

Another problem is that the victory of one of the six parties or the coalition as a whole in the elections does not yet mean that it is possible to win enough votes in parliament to implement the intended plan set out in the joint document. For that to happen, the opposition bloc must also win the presidential elections and gain the support of the parliamentary majority, that is—two-thirds of the votes. This, judging from the results of the last election and the current opinion polls, it does not seem to be a realistic outcome.

Erdogan is the major obstacle

Undoubtedly, the Turkish government is closely monitoring the joint activities of the opposition. The 2023 elections are very important for the Recep Tayyip Erdogan government. In fact, next year the Republic of Turkey will celebrate the centenary of its inception and a number of major projects in the country are planned to be implemented in 2023. With Erdogan as the president for the next five years, it is expected that he appoints his successor.

Therefore, back in 2020, the Turkish president announced “a new phase of mobilisation and reforms in the fields of economy, law and democracy”. In doing so, Erdogan promised to draft a new constitution. In other words, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) government will try to consistently counter the opposition's proposals in order to weaken the arguments of its rivals.

Thus, the 2023 elections in Turkey will take place in a traditional manner, with both sides trying to energise their electorate. This is because the proposals made by AKP and the opposition, which are different in essence, but almost identical in content, will only divide the existing electorate. The outcome of elections will be determined by a few percent of new voters and a fluctuating electorate. This also means that, in any case, the implementation of the opposition's proposals will encounter serious obstacles.

Conclusion

The very fact that six parties have agreed and came up with a joint document hints at the development of a broad opposition coalition in Turkey. Obviously, the opposition has taken this major step realising that they can defeat strong Erdogan and his party only by working together. Despite ideological differences, the six leaders understand that joining forces is the single most important condition to defeat Erdogan, which, at least, requires a united coalition in parliamentary elections.

For the government, however, the alliance of the six parties may only cause some complications within AKP rather than signalling the emergence of a broad opposition coalition. In fact, with the deepening political competition within AKP, we can see the emergence of groups ideologically close to the opposition six. In particular, Babacan and Davutoglu will likely be able to win the minds of a certain portion of the AKP's electorate. Since both politicians previously held high government positions in Erdogan's government, they are closer in spirit to his party's electorate. At the same time, the expected economic and energy crisis will be a tough test for the Turkish authorities next year.

In this context, the 2023 elections will be one of the turning points in Turkish politics. For the continuation of the current presidential system of governance or a return to the previous parliamentary system will depend on the 2023 elections.

Furthermore, although the cooling of relations between the US and Turkey is a negative factor for the Erdogan government, the war in Ukraine and the expected regional and global crises will benefit the AKP government. Erdogan’s leadership experience and ability to successfully navigate out of crisis situations attest to his remarkable political talents. The tense situation in the region makes such politicians highly demanded by domestic audiences. Turkish authorities will try to use various means to expose contradictions between the six parties, making them a subject of public debates, thus weakening the opposition alliance and ensuring a split within their electorate.