YEREVAN FIVE KILOMETRES BEHIND

An event that took place during the March 11 meeting of the bilateral Azerbaijan-Iran intergovernmental commission in Baku was dubbed historical by many media outlets. And it truly is, as the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the two countries to establish a new transport artery linking the East Zangezur economic region of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic signed on this date is indeed a major achievement. And not only for the economic future of the region.

The document signed by the Deputy Prime Minister of Azerbaijan, Shahin Mustafayev, and Iranian Minister of Roads and Urban Development, Rostam Ghasemi, makes it possible to build a completely new transport corridor just 5km (!) south of the Armenian-Iranian border.

In fact, Azerbaijan and Iran are creating a powerful alternative to the Zangezur corridor project, on which Yerevan failed to present a more or less intelligible position since the signing of the trilateral agreement on Garabagh back in 2020.

Project details

The new corridor will consist of a railway line, a multi-lane motor highway, power transmission lines, as well as digital and other communication lines connecting East Zangezur and Nakhchivan. Under the project, it is also planned to construct a total of four pedestrian bridges on both ends of the railway and motorway lines, two on each end.

According to MoU, the parties undertake to build checkpoints on respective territories capable of handling around 500 inbound and 500 outbound large-capacity vehicles for export, import and transit operations daily.

All costs associated with the development of project documentation, construction and supervision of the motorway bridge construction between the East Zangezur economic region (Azerbaijan) and Iran, as well as the costs of new communication and energy lines will be covered by Azerbaijan. Iran, on the other hand, will undertake the preparation of project documentation, construction and supervision of the motorway bridge construction between Iran and the Ordubad district of Nakhchivan. In parallel, there will be carried out works on the restoration, upgrade or construction of roads, which will make the bridges fully functional. As to the railway line, it will be laid parallel to the motorway, with all the technical documentation to be ready in six months. Certainly, the project will also include infrastructure communications, installation of communication and power lines etc.

The main advantage of the corridor for Azerbaijan, noted Shahin Mustafayev, is that thanks to the new route the road connecting Nakhchivan with the rest of the country will be only about 50-55 km long. “We believe that this road will also have a great transit potential. As a branch of the Zangezur corridor, the new road will extend to the left of Aghbend, across the bridge over Araz and further, after about 50 km, will reach the territory of Azerbaijan near the village of Kotan of Ordubad, Nakhchivan. We will determine the route more precisely within a month. The length of the road to Nakhchivan will be about 50-55 km," Mr. Mustafayev said.

East-West, Europe-Asia

Obviously, it is vital for Azerbaijan to possess a strong land corridor linking Nakhchivan with the rest of the country, hence significantly reducing the distance to the autonomous republic. Over the years of Nakhchivan’s de facto blockade, Azerbaijan has spent a great deal of effort and money to ensure the economic development of the republic, to solve its urgent problems with electricity and gas supply, and to provide necessary goods there in a timely manner.

So far, the development of production and entrepreneurship in this area of Azerbaijan has been significantly hampered and far from real potential. After all, the main condition to ensure such development is accessibility to logistics for the export of local products, which have been quite expensive so far, and eventually affected cost and made them uncompetitive in the market. Therefore, the new corridor will be the main incentive for the development of new production facilities in Nakhchivan, also contributing to the solution of the employment problem.

In addition to internal benefits for Azerbaijan, the new corridor is one of the largest logistics projects of regional importance, a new route for cargo and passengers from East to West, from Europe to Asia and back. It will combine the logistics capabilities of Turkey, Iran and Azerbaijan, allowing them to enter the market with favourable tariffs for cargo handling, which will eventually bring in significant revenues to these countries.

According to Hikmet Hajiyev, Aide to the President of Azerbaijan, “it will also be a new corridor in Eurasia that will change the entire transport landscape of the continent.”

With the global political scene changing so swiftly, it is difficult to keep up with these changes. Therefore, diversification of logistics is of particular relevance in this case, especially for Azerbaijan, which, thanks to its geographical location and friendly relations with almost all of its neighbours, can become a significant transport hub in the region.

Blame yourself

As for unfriendly neighbours, they can blame themselves.

Had Yerevan reacted to the post-war processes adequately, part of this money could find its its way into the Armenian state budget. In fact, the Azerbaijan gave the Armenian government, as a laudable gesture from a victorious country, a real chance to get out of deep economic crisis and isolation. For a year and a half, we have been waiting for Armenia to express its categorical position on the issue of unblocking communications with Azerbaijan. However, what we got were some strange and whimsical complaints about the name of the Zangezur corridor, or the routes of new roads and so on... Azerbaijan had heard quite enough of these ‘buts’ during the thirty years of occupation. But we had also learned to response to them categorically. The Zangezur corridor must be a corridor, not a road, with all the legal aspects. And unlike Armenia, Azerbaijan's position on this issue is clear and cannot be compromised.

It’s about time for Armenia to be more accommodating, at least to secure its own interests. According to economist Vugar Bayramov, Armenia needs the Zangezur corridor the most to solve urgent economic problems. But revanchist sentiments did not allow the leadership of this country to see obvious benefits.

Political analyst Farhad Mammadov notes that the presidents of Azerbaijan and Turkey have agreed to accelerate the construction of a railway line from Nakhchivan to Kars, making the exit from Armenian Gyumri to Kars meaningless and secondary to Turkey.

In short, as summarised by an American analyst Paul Goble, “in fact, Azerbaijan has achieved its goal since the end of the Second Garabagh War. Now Iran has replaced Armenia as a beneficiary of the transport project. Armenia has to blame itself for what has happened.”

However, Azerbaijan is not giving up on the Zangezur corridor project. It is still on the agenda. As Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Ceyhun Bayramov noted at a recent diplomatic forum in Antalya, participants of the 3+3 cooperation platform are interested in opening communication links. Azerbaijan and Armenia would benefit from the Zangezur corridor: “Currently there is no railway line between Georgia and Iran. Once the Zangezur corridor is in place, there will be a new railway connection between the two countries.”

Mr. Bayramov noted that the launch of the corridor would be beneficial to all six countries. "Some claim that Georgia will remain outside the Zangezur corridor. This is not true, and Georgia will also be able to benefit from the corridor," Mr. Bayramov said.

It is clear that Azerbaijan has once again openly declared to its whimsical neighbour that it would not tolerate its behaviour any more. Armenia will see the corridor if demonstrates an adequate position on this project.

While Armenia is hesitating, others are making money. Just five kilometres from the borderline...