BACKGROUND VISIT

The war in Ukraine strongly shakes the fragile foundations of the international security system. Old alliances are phasing out, while the new ones are just emerging and it is not clear whether they will be viable at all. Future seems blurred and uncertain. Under these circumstances, nations turn their eyes to leaders, whose actions largely determine their future.

Azerbaijan and Turkey have been walking side by side for decades and now are trying to find solutions in this difficult situation that will save their peoples from the chaos and instability of this troubled period of human history. They do so together remaining committed to the principle formulated once and for all—One Nation, Two States.

Strategic objective

On March 10, at the invitation of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev made a working visit to Turkey.  The distinctive feature of the visit was that it took place when the Ukrainian issue, or the confrontation between Russia and the West, is shaping into a global war with uncertain results. That is why the allied relationship between Azerbaijan and Turkey becomes extremely important—not only as purely bilateral relations, but also in the context of regional politics. Amid escalating tensions in and around Ukraine going in parallel with the revision of many international agreements and commitments, Azerbaijan and Turkey are interested in the sustainability of political trends developing in the region since the 44-day war in 2020.

The vast majority of observers believe that the main trend that should bring relations between regional actors to a new level is the course towards the signing of a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia to be supported by several negotiation tracks at once.

Of particular importance among them are the trilateral talks between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia, the Turkey-Armenia format and the negotiations facilitated by the European Union. Participation of Baku and Ankara in these formats has been mutually agreed. Turkish officials have repeatedly stated that Turkey would not undertake unilateral actions concerning the opening of borders and the establishment of relations with Armenia without first notifying or elaborating a common strategy with Baku.

Participation of the Armenian delegation led by Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan in the Anatolian Diplomatic Forum held in Antalya, Turkey on March 10-12, 2022 confirmed that the situation was moving towards normalisation of relations in the region, albeit slowly.

While in Antalya, the Armenian minister out of habit complained to his Russian counterpart about the actions of Azerbaijan. But it was not the right moment to do so, because the Kremlin has now different priorities today and the traditional Armenian claims seemed like an absurdity.

Issues of particular importance in the South Caucasus

Meanwhile, Baku and Ankara consider important that the post-war process in the region is irreversible. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly said in his public speeches that any attempts to ‘win back the situation’ and any actions by the Armenian side to encourage revanchist sentiments would be harshly suppressed. Nevertheless, Baku also sees positive signals coming from Yerevan, and is ready to support specific actions by the Armenian side to create stable conditions for multilateral and mutually beneficial cooperation. Turkey completely understands this position as well.

During the meeting in Ankara on March 10, both sides once again reconciled their positions. According to an official statement following the meeting, the two presidents exchanged views on the prospects for normalising relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the post-conflict period. In addition, they noted the significance of the Zangezur corridor, regional prospects of the project and the construction of the Kars-Nakhchivan railway line.

With transport and transit connections linking Russia to the West being limited, the relevance of these transport lines increases significantly. The expected increase in cargo flows from East to West and vice versa requires a sustainable and reliable transport infrastructure, which the Zangezur corridor provides to all current and potential project participants.

During the meeting, both leaders underlined the importance of Armenia implementing all the provisions of the trilateral statement signed on November 10, 2020. They also discussed the contacts between the delegations of Turkey and Armenia.

Overall, the visit showed that the Azerbaijani and Turkish sides were increasingly looking at the prospects of bilateral relations through the prism of regional politics. The energy crisis in Europe and the intention of Western countries to stop using Russian gas supplies increase the significance of the Southern Gas Corridor, which mostly runs through the two countries and is supplied with Azerbaijani gas. The Shusha Declaration on the alliance between Turkey and Azerbaijan draws attention to this aspect as well and focuses on the promotion of power supplies to improve the security of energy supply in the region given the ongoing processes in the global energy sector. In other words, it creates a political and legal platform for enhanced energy cooperation in the region.

The parties also discussed the potential of increasing gas supplies through this corridor to Turkey and via Turkey to Europe. They noted the planned construction of the Igdir-Nakhchivan gas pipeline and relevant investments allocated to the project in the state budget of Azerbaijan.

Scrupulously developed visit program

Azerbaijani President's visit to Turkey was not spontaneous and was well prepared. Before the event, on March 5, President Ilham Aliyev received the Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu. There were rumours that the diplomats also discussed the promising steps of the Turkish side to normalise relations with Armenia. By the way, the visit once again demonstrated both sides' intention to resolve all regional issues, including those related to the future of the Armenian-Turkish relations, jointly.

Obviously, the recent intensification of Turkish-Armenian dialogue is directly linked to reports on design and construction works that started on the Armenian section of the Zangezur corridor. We can therefore assume that the restoration of the Arazdayan (Yeraskh in Armenian)-Nakhchivan and Gyumri-Kars railway lines will be launched in the near future. At the same time the construction of the Igdir-Nakhchivan railway line is being actively implemented.

Currently, the only functional route linking Asia with Europe remains the corridor through the South Caucasus and Turkey. The same route takes Russia to the Mediterranean and the Middle Eastern markets. For the countries of the region, communication routes, especially those being actively developed, can set conditions to implement their vital interests in the foreseeable historical perspective. In this context, there is a common understanding that to ensure the security of these routes, they should be supported by relevant legal documents and treaties, such as a peace treaty with Armenia.

The Armenian leadership states its intention to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan because of unavoidable necessity being shaped, among other things, by the determining influence of decisions made by the Turkish-Azerbaijani tandem.

The fact that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is thus also trying to gain domestic political dividends for himself only strengthens the overall trend. By weakening positions of the opposition, which is promoting the idea of rewinding the situation, the current Armenian leadership wants to create a foundation for its own political future.

Remarkably, after Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan met with his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu at the Anatolia Diplomatic Forum, the latter made a significant statement. He said that there should be no need for a third party in the negotiations for a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia. And there is no doubt that official Baku maintains the same position.

Based on these considerations, Azerbaijan sent Armenia a five-point proposal for the normalisation of relations. In response to Azerbaijan's proposals, Yerevan addressed the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group to organise relevant negotiations. Thus, the Armenian side is once again trying to make the best of a bad bargain by pointing at the OSCE Minsk Group but without rejecting Azerbaijan’s proposals either, although the Group's existence in the current realities is not entirely clear. Given the insurmountable contradictions between the Minsk Group co-chairs, the situation looks like just another attempt to cause a delay in the process and divert it from specifics.

Undoubtedly, this proposal has also been developed during the Azerbaijani-Turkish negotiations. Baku and Ankara expect Yerevan determine its position on the peace treaty considering its own interests, rather than being a tool in the wrong hands, as it has been for the past decades without getting any dividends in return.  However, the ball is on Armenia's court. Only time can tell how it will use this chance.

Ukrainian issues of bilateral agenda

Naturally, negotiators from Azerbaijan and Turkey could not avoid the acute humanitarian situation in and around Ukraine, as well as measures to reduce current tensions. Both Ankara and Baku offered their mediation services in the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Incidentally, just hours after Ilham Aliyev met with the Turkish foreign minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, during a conversation with Vladimir Putin, conveyed to him Vladimir Zelensky's words of readiness to meet. The Ukrainian president had earlier said that he considered Istanbul and Baku to be the most suitable places for possible negotiations.

In particular, referring to the Turkish president's mediation potential, Zelensky noted: “Only few world leaders have this potential. There are many who want to have it, but only few do. Mr. Erdogan is a serious, powerful and influential state leader in the context of geopolitics and global economy. He is very strong, very serious president, and he is helping. So I have no questions for him.”

It is no coincidence that on the same day when the leaders of Azerbaijan and Turkey met in Ankara, foreign ministers of Ukraine and Russia, Dmitry Kuleba and Sergey Lavrov, held their first direct talks with the participation of the Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu as part of the Antalya Diplomatic Forum. Although the meeting did not yield the expected results, there was hope that the parties could achieve a least a ceasefire. It was also expected that there would be talks between the presidents of Ukraine and Russia.

Both Azerbaijan and Turkey are well aware that the highly volatile international situation and the war in Ukraine pose a real and potential threat to both international and regional stability. It threatens many initiatives that the stakeholders had made many important practical steps towards. Therefore, the protection of these initiatives and creation of maximum conditions for the predictability of positive processes is an important topic of the Azerbaijani-Turkish bilateral agenda.