CLARIFYING POSITIONS

Artificial escalation recorded at the end of March in the Azerbaijani territories temporarily controlled by the Russian peacekeeping troops (RPT) confirmed a number of serious obstacles to the restoration of law and order and peaceful life in Khankendi and adjacent areas. These lands, which constitute an internationally recognized part of the Garabagh economic region of the Republic of Azerbaijan, should soon get involved in the process of restoration of the liberated areas as well. This necessity was once again confirmed by problems encountered in the gas supply to the mountainous regions of Garabagh, as well as by developments related to the imminent withdrawal (or at least disarmament) of the Armenian armed forces still entrenching in the territories controlled by Russian peacekeepers.

Nuances of the gas crisis

Another escalation of tension in the region began when the Armenian leadership accused Azerbaijan of allegedly deliberate cutting off gas supplies to the mountainous part of Garabagh. In fact, the problem was caused by the breakdown of gas distribution lines in the Garabagh economic region, which was reported by the relevant Azerbaijani authorities. The reasons were both severe weather conditions, which periodically cause interruptions in gas supply not only in Garabagh, but also in other regions of Azerbaijan, and the long-term operation of gas distribution lines specifically in Khankendi and the surrounding areas without repair and necessary repairs.

State-run company Azerigaz took the necessary measures to eliminate the consequences of the accident, followed by re-enabling the supply of natural gas to Khankendi and the surrounding settlements. But unfortunately the situation has developed amid another anti-Azerbaijani hysteria waged by Armenia, which, as usual, was joined by the ‘regular penalty takers’ of the Armenian lobby in the West. They said that Azerbaijan was deliberately creating a humanitarian disaster in order to complicate the living conditions of Armenians living in Garabagh...

Nevertheless, the campaign designed to damage the credibility of Azerbaijan at international level is unable to conceal the main causes of the so-called gas crisis and, by and large, all the ‘routine problems of life’ experienced by Armenians in Garabagh. By shifting the blame for the disruption of gas supplies on Baku, the separatist junta, still showing signs of life in criminal association with Armenia, has tried to justify its own failure and at the same time, to consolidate the economic dependence of Khankendi on Yerevan. But this only confirms the necessity of solving the problem radically. That is the establishment of full control of Azerbaijan over the part of its territory temporarily controlled by RPT as soon as possible. This will suppress and put an end to arbitrariness, lawlessness and economic dislocation in this area, as well as to the vital problems of Armenians living in Garabagh together with the Azerbaijanis who will return to their homes after 30 years of exile. A thorough and lasting solution to the problem is directly proportional to the speed with which the Armenian population of Garabagh can be reintegrated into the Azerbaijani society.

Farrukh's signs

Armenian hysteria over the ‘humanitarian catastrophe’ has smoothly turned into a political propaganda campaign about the ‘invasion’ of Azerbaijani troops in the RPT deployment zone. Meanwhile, the Azerbaijani Army had repeatedly warned during the weeks preceding the events about the inadmissibility of illegal military engineering and agricultural works on these Azerbaijani lands. And the so-called invasion, which is unthinkable because Azerbaijani army cannot, a priori, invade its own territory, was explained by the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense as the specification of positions and deployment points of the Azerbaijani units. As part of this process, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces have established their deployment posts in the village of Farrukh and adjacent heights. This was a necessary operation as these heights have previously been a hiding place for Armenian illegal armed units threatening and provoking the Azerbaijani army to use force.

These threats were confirmed the very next day after the Azerbaijani army has taken control of positions in the village of Farrukh and the surrounding hills. On the morning of March 26, an Armenian subversive group attempted to attack Azerbaijani units. This provocation was immediately suppressed by the Azerbaijani army. However, the situation got worse after the reaction of the Russian Ministry of Defence, which was clearly inconsistent with the Russian peacekeeping mission, whose duties include suppressing the illegal Armenian military presence in the parts of Azerbaijani territory controlled by the Russian peacekeeping troops. Since, according to the 4th clause of the trilateral statement signed by the leaders of Azerbaijan, Russia and Armenia on November 10, 2020, which actually ended the 44-day war, the withdrawal of Armenian armed forces should have been carried out in parallel with the deployment of Russian peacekeeping forces. But that has not happened to this day—almost a year and a half after the 44-day war and the signing of the trilateral statement. Perhaps it was the Russian peacekeeping contingent that contributed to the failure to implement this important provision of the agreement.

Thus, the statements of the Russian Ministry of Defence made amid the aggravating situation in the RPT zone reflect a position that fundamentally contradicts the objectives of the peacekeeping mission. In these statements, the Russian Ministry of Defence claimed that the Azerbaijani army had allegedly violated the trilateral statement by invading the territories temporarily controlled by Russian peacekeepers. The Azerbaijani Ministry of Defence denied the validity of such accusations. The ministry called the statement of the Russian Defence Ministry about the withdrawal of Azerbaijani Armed Forces from Farrukh not reflecting the reality. The Azerbaijani Defence Ministry stated that the positions of the Azerbaijani Army in Farrukh, which is part of the sovereign territory of Azerbaijan, and in the adjacent mountainous areas have not undergone any changes.

Another extremely important point in the statements of the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defence is that it emphasised the absence of an administrative-territorial unit called "Nagorno-Garabagh" in the territory of Azerbaijan. The use of this expression by the Russian Defence Ministry was described as disrespect for the territorial integrity of the Republic of Azerbaijan, recognised and accepted by the international community, including the Russian Federation. Most importantly, however, the Azerbaijani Defence Ministry urged the Russian military to ensure the full withdrawal of the remnants of the Armenian army and illegal Armenian armed units from the territories of Azerbaijan in accordance with the provisions of the trilateral statement.

Baku has thus expressed its dissatisfaction with the Russian peacekeepers' disregard for the disarmament or withdrawal of illegal Armenian armed units from the RPT zone. Moreover, the attitude of the RPT command to this issue as well as the reaction of the Russian Ministry of Defence to the latest escalation in the region also seriously contradicts the Declaration on Allied Coopearation between Azerbaijan and Russia signed on February 22, 2022 by Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Vladimir Putin. Since the document expresses the intention of both sides to implement the provisions of the trilateral statements, resolutely prevent activities of organisations and individuals against the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of both countries, joining efforts to combat the threats of international terrorism, extremism and separatism in their territories. And, in general, allied cooperation based on mutual respect for the independence, state sovereignty, territorial integrity and inviolability of the state borders of the two countries, as well as on the principles of non-interference in internal affairs.

Logic of inevitable events

The withdrawal of the remnants of the Armenian armed forces and the final elimination of the criminal separatist junta are inevitable in this sense. Therefore Baku expediently warns Armenia against any interference in Azerbaijan's internal affairs.

Azerbaijan's proposed basic principles for normalising relations with Armenia include, inter alia, mutual recognition of sovereignty, territorial integrity, inviolability of borders, and mutual confirmation of the absence of territorial claims against each other. But how is Armenia responding to these proposals? With its own proposals concerning the ‘status of Nagorno-Garabagh’, which are supposed to complement Azerbaijan's ‘five principles’. In order to push through the clause on the ‘status of Nagorno-Garabagh’ liquidated by Azerbaijan into the proposed peace treaty, Armenia even turned to the OSCE Minsk Group and its co-chairmanship, which practically fell into oblivion as soon as the 44-day war was over.

Armenia thus confirms that it is not determined to resolve its relations with Azerbaijan on the basis of the principles and norms of international law. Otherwise it would not have put forward ‘proposals’ based on territorial claims against Azerbaijan.

Therefore, Yerevan is essentially making it impossible to conclude a peace treaty. What kind of peace treaty can we talk about if Armenia refuses to recognise the mountainous part of Garabagh as sovereign territory of Azerbaijan and sabotages the implementation of previously reached agreements, including on the withdrawal of Armenian armed forces from the Azerbaijani Khankendi and surrounding areas?

Armenia is seriously deluded if it expects that the world powers represented by the co-chairs of the Minsk Group, that is the US, France and Russia, can force Azerbaijan to come to terms with encroachments on its territorial integrity. This did not happen even during the three decades of Armenian occupation. This will not happen now when Azerbaijan has reclaimed its lands by crushing the Armenian invaders on the battlefield. Baku has made the implementation of UN Security Council resolutions on Garabagh possible, and it will also achieve the full implementation of the post-war agreements.