PASSIONS IN MEDITERRANEAN

Recently, there are serious discussions over the increasing number of the US military bases in Greece (from five to nine), as well as the ratification by the Greek parliament in early May of the Mutual Defense Cooperation Agreement (MDCA) signed in Washington back in 2021. The document provides for the expansion of military cooperation between the two countries, but raises serious questions. For example, who is the target of the new US military bases in Greece?

US power in Greece

Let's first look at the technical side of the issue. Until recently, the US had five military bases in this strategically important Mediterranean country - a radar base on the Skyros island, a naval base on the Salamis island and air bases in Kastelli, Kalamata and Andravida. In addition, the Greek side will transfer the Alexandroupolis military base, the Litochoro training camp, the Yorgoula base at the Stefanovikio military airfield and the naval bases on the Souda island in the Cretan Sea to the US army.

The agreement signed in October 2021 in Washington between the US and Greek governments assumes reciprocal defensive obligations in the event of threats to the security, sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of both countries. In fact, it is an expanded form of the cooperation agreement signed in 1990.

The new treaty will be effective for five years with the possibility of automatic extension unless one of the parties wishes to withdraw from the agreement two years before the date of expiry. According to the document, the US can also use other Greek military bases.

One of the parties protesting against the agreement is the Greek opposition. Thus, in a recent parliamentary vote 181 and 119 deputies voted for and against the document, respectively. Opposition has two main reasons to protest the document: automatic extension of the agreement and the US refusal to deploy military bases on the disputed islands with Turkey, despite the wishes of the Greek side. For example, Washington refused Greece's request to deploy one of these bases on Skyros in the Aegean Sea so as not to openly upset another NATO ally, Turkey.

At the beginning of May 2022, it became known that the US plans to send 10 F-35 fighters, 14 F-15 fighters as well as 500 troops to the military base on Souda. The aircraft will be deployed there as early as July 2022. Thanks to tens of millions of additional dollars, this military facility has been upgraded and modernised. In addition, US military units also use the services of NATO military bases located in Greece. Large financial and technical scale of the entire network of military facilities give reasonable rise to questions such as who they are targeting at, against which country the US is defending Greece, and against which country the West is consolidating all this military power.

What worries Ankara?

It is natural to think about Turkey with each batch of military supplies to Greece. Ankara's traditionally strained relations with Athens have deteriorated significantly, especially in recent years. Therefore, the US military support for Greece and the increasing number of US military bases in the country worry Greece’s ally in NATO - Turkey. Moral and psychological effects of yet another American enterprise also contribute to heating up the situation. As the Turkish president put it, Ankara is worried about the ongoing development.

In particular, the redeployment of 145 helicopters, 1,800 armoured vehicles and 20,000 US troops to the Alexandroupolis military base in 2021 as part of the Defender Europe 2021 exercise has sparked sharp protests in Ankara.

In November 2021, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan criticised the US military build-up in Greece, blaming the country for becoming a US military base entirely. He said the situation worried Turkey as a NATO member and contradicted the Lausanne Peace Treaty. By treating US military support to Greece as an act of opposition to Turkey, Ankara apparently wants Washington to maintain an equidistant stance towards the two Mediterranean countries.

In May, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis visited Washington, DC, where he met with the US president, several other officials and made a statement at the Congress. However, the Greek prime minister's anti-Turkish rhetoric, especially his call to veto the sale of F-16s to Ankara after the Biden administration had already asked Congress to approve the deal, sparked sharp protests in Turkey. Turkish President Erdogan has even announced the suspension of political negotiations with Greece.

Who's in the crosshairs?

This is now the burning international issue. Is the US arming Greece against Turkey to support one of the sides of the conflict? Or is there something else behind this mobilisation spat?

It is worth mentioning that the main US military facility in Greece, the naval base on the island of Souda, is capable of covering both the Mediterranean and the Black seas. This means that the military bases in Greece also have a regional dimension and can be used, along with the Mediterranean Sea, for the transfer of additional troops to the Black Sea region, including the Balkan Peninsula. According to many military and political experts, one of the main reasons behind the deployment of American troops to Greece is an attempt to deter Russia.

A retired Turkish intelligence colonel, Coskun Basbug, believes that the US is not mobilising its forces in Greece to threaten Turkey, but to encircle Russia. According to him, the purpose of the concentration of military forces in the northern part of Greece (Alexandroupolis) is to establish control over Russia in the Black Sea region, including the delivery of timely military assistance to Bulgaria and Romania.

In his opinion, for Greece this agreement mean an advantage over Turkey and guarantee its own security. In fact, the issue of the so-called Turkish threat has become increasingly popular among most Greek politicians these days and almost the most important issue in the domestic politics of this Balkan country. Hence, the renewal of the military agreement with the US, as well as the establishment of new American military bases in the country and equipping them with additional troops can be considered a serious political dividend for the Greek government, a kind of useful material for the internal political speculations.

Obviously, Washington has its own plans in this regard. US military aid to the Balkan countries a year before the war in Ukraine, arms sales to Bulgaria and Romania and the construction of new military bases in Greece indicate far-reaching plans of Washington for the region. The US seems to predict a deepening of political confrontation between the US and Russia that took place in Macedonia a few years ago. And given that some European countries like Serbia and Hungary openly support Russia in the region, Washington expects an open confrontation with Moscow in the Balkans.

Apparently, the ongoing war in Ukraine increases the risk of such a confrontation. We can therefore not overestimate the role of US military bases in Greece in the event of continued hostilities and the expansion of the front line, thanks to their proximity to the theatre of war and convenient location along the sea routes.

We should not forget the economic feasibility of Washington's move either. Reducing Europe's dependence on Russian gas is a priority for the US and NATO. After all, Europe risks to remain dependent on Russian gas suppliers if it fails to secure alternative sources of this natural fuel by the autumn. That is why Washington is working on possible gas supply routes to Europe as an alternative to Russian gas.

Remarkably, the main gas routes to Europe will now follow the East-West line - through Turkey to Greece to the Balkans. This includes both gas pipelines and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transportation routes. In the future, Western countries aim to ensure the export of Israeli (Mediterranean) as well as Iraqi and Iranian gas volumes through Turkey to Europe. At the same time, they discuss a project to transport gas to the continent from the Persian Gulf as well.

Greece is particularly important now, as it is the maritime route for LNG from the Mediterranean Sea and the Persian Gulf to Europe, especially to its eastern countries. In other words, Greece and Turkey ae expected to become an energy corridor to Europe in the coming years. That is why the US is working to strengthen this corridor amid the increasing risk of tensions in the region.

Thus, the increase of US military power in Greece is taking place in the three above-mentioned directions. First of all, the developments clearly indicate the growing importance of the Balkan Peninsula in the coming years as an arena for a new confrontation between the US and Russia, mainly due to Russia’s refusal to cede its traditional sphere of influence to the US.

The second important factor is to secure energy supply routes to Europe, including natural gas supplies. This factor is also indirectly aimed at confronting Russia.

Another important nuance is Washington's intention to maintain its control on all access routes to the Black Sea, which looks to become a new battleground for US-Russian relations.

The US is also trying to maintain its influence over Athens by establishing new military bases in the country. It would be appropriate to mention the sufficient number and authority of political forces close to Russia in the country. Therefore, by increasing the size of its military contingent in Greece, Washington is also strengthening its influence in the country.

Finally, the unfortunate developments previously observed during the US military operations in Syria and Iraq, as well as Ankara's refusal to allow these operations against the respective countries from its territory, are among the main reasons why Washington is turning to Greece as an alternative. Amid the aforementioned factors, Greece is an important country for the US in the Balkans.

Nevertheless, we should not forget about the role of Turkey, which prefers to ignore the US administration's position on many regional political and military issues, focusing on its own interests instead. Washington's blocking of military sales to Ankara and its provision of large-scale military support to Greece, which is on the brink of war with Turkey, can also be regarded as an indicator of cool relations between Ankara and Washington.