ERADICATING THE TERRORISM

Turkey has recently announced a new military operation in northern Syria. Despite the general criticism of the global centres of Ankara's plans, the latter is determined to ensure its security and curb terrorist activities along the Turkish-Syrian border. Apparently, this will definitely strengthen Turkey's position in one of the strategically important regions of the world.

Into a new battle

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced a new anti-terrorist operation in northern Syria and declared its main objective be the establishment of a security belt in the 90km stretch between the cities of Tell-Rifat and Manbij. This area is currently controlled by the Kurdish terrorist organisations, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the People's Self-Defence Units (YPG), which are actually the Syrian branch of the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).

Following Erdogan’s announcement of a new military campaign during the Efes-2022 military exercise in the Izmir province, the Turkish army completed preparations to launch a cross-border operation within days and even carried out the first spot strikes on PKK targets in Tell-Rifat and Manbij.

What is Turkey’s primary objective under the new military operation in the neighbouring Arab state? Obviously, it tries to clear the specific areas controlled by terrorists that threaten Turkey's security. According to the Turkish media, Ankara's intention is to ensure full control of a 600km stretch of its border with Syria. But to do so, the PKK, SDF and YPG terrorists must be eliminated.

In fact, to curb the terrorist threat, Turkey has repeatedly conducted military operations over the past 30 years, destroying the bases of Kurdish groups in Iraq and Syria. However, in the context of the large-scale Syrian war, the Turkish army’s anti-terrorist mission has taken on a pronounced geopolitical significance. Given the Western plans to divide the Syrian Arab Republic, there is a clear threat of emergence of a Kurdish autonomy controlled by terrorist organisations on Turkey's southern borders. To counter such plans, Turkey has conducted three anti-terrorist operations in northern Syria (Euphrates Shield, Olive Branch and Spring of Peace) since 2016, which resulted in the establishment of a security buffer zone between the cities of Aazaz, Jerablus and Al-Bab north of Aleppo, as well as the establishment of Ankara’s control of the border areas east of the Euphrates River.

At the end of Operation Spring of Peace in 2019, Turkey agreed with the US and Russia to create an 80-kilometre security zone along its southern border. However, Ankara's partners have not fulfilled their commitments to neutralise the influence of Kurdish terrorist forces in northern Syria. Now, it seems that Turkey intends to complete the process on its own.

Meanwhile, the anti-terrorist counteroffensive will not only solve Turkey's security problems. Ankara has openly expressed its intention to host more Syrian refugees in addition to almost four million living in Turkey currently. There are also discussions on the settlement of Turkmans, a Turkic people persecuted by both government and Kurdish forces in various parts of Syria. According to Turkish analysts, Turkmans support the idea of resettlement. This gives to Ankara the basis to consider granting Turkmans the right to establish an autonomy in the future. The UN-led discussions in Geneva and the Astana format involving Turkey, Russia and Iran on the future constitutional order in Syria consider the possibility of granting national minorities the right to establish their autonomies without violating the territorial integrity of Syria.

Turkey is ready to patronise both military and economic support of these and other processes to establish peace and prosperity in the security zone it is creating on its southern borders. Because Ankara realises that not only military and political stability but also social and economic development is a guarantee of lasting security in the region. Especially in a country as troubled as Syria, which has been suffering from war for many years.

However, the main obstacle to the implementation of Turkey's anti-terror plans remains the plans of world powers that do not welcome the prospect of liberating the northern parts of Syria from the Kurdish terrorist groups.

No one but Turkey

Ankara's announcement of a new military operation in Syria has drawn the most criticism from the US, which has been the main patron of the Kurdish movement since the beginning of the Syrian conflict. The White House stated its opposition to Turkey's military preparations in the northern Syria, which means nothing but its interest in preserving the factor of the Kurdish terrorism. It is not surprising, as this ‘element’ of the Middle Eastern policy works not only against the security and territorial integrity of Turkey, which has long been waiting in vain for the US to stop its support to Kurdish organisations operating in northern Syria, but also against the security and territorial integrity of Syria itself.

Russia's position on Turkey's new operation is more restrained. This was also confirmed during the visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Turkey shortly after Erdogan's statement. Ankara and Moscow have obvious contradictions in terms of their military presence in Syria. Moreover, among the ‘contentious issues’ are also Moscow's traditional ‘special relationships’ with the Kurdish movement, which has been repeatedly condemned by Ankara. Nevertheless, Turkey and Russia remain allies in the Syrian conflict, at least because of their mutual interest in opposing the Western plans largely based on its intention to push Ankara and Moscow out of its Greater Middle East Game. This obviously plays in hands of the Turkish-Russian cooperation, as Moscow is increasingly willing to sacrifice its Kurdish interest in order to preserve its partnership with Ankara. This is particularly important amid the significantly tougher ongoing confrontation between Russia and the West. Yet under these circumstances Turkey, regardless of its membership in NATO, is nevertheless willing to block the expansion of the alliance thanks to Sweden and Finland and to further develop a strategic partnership with Russia, including military-technical cooperation.

Unsurprisingly, Lavrov said he understood Turkey's concerns about "the external threats along its borders". Thus, he reiterated the Kremlin’s position as expressed by the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova. She expressed Russia's alarm at Erdogan's announcement of the new military operation in northern Syria, but added that Russia was sympathetic to Ankara's concerns about the threats to its national security along the Syrian border.

As to Iran, it’s one of the participants of the Astana format as a guarantor of peace in Syria along with Turkey and Russia. At the same time, Tehran is consistently strengthening its presence in Syria regardless of the interests of Ankara and Moscow. Tehran is trying to take advantage of the weakening Russian presence in Syria amid the war in Ukraine and is clearly not happy with the prospect of a new Turkish operation.

Iran clearly relies not only on its traditional ties with Damascus, which have improved after the recent visit of the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to Iran, but also on the Kurdish forces. There is a fertile ground for cooperation between the latter represented by the PKK, YPG and SDF and Tehran, since Iranian proxies may be the only force that dares to provide real support to Kurdish groups, which have been very unstable in anticipation of the new large-scale Turkish offensive.

Incidentally, the recent yet unexpected trend of Kurdish terrorist groups towards establishing an alliance with the Syrian government is also indicative of their unstable state. The same government they have been fighting for all these years to reportedly establish yet another Kurdish autonomy by dividing the Syrian state. Apparently, Damascus does not mind the sudden loyalty of Kurdish forces, which emerged out of fear of the Turkish invasion, and wants to ensure their total and irrevocable obedience. President Al-Assad has even warned Ankara that Turkey could carry out a military operation only with the consent of the official Syrian government. However, Turkey has enough reasons not to leave its security issues to others, even though it requires a new military campaign on the territory of another country. Previous experience shows that Turkey can cope with the Kurdish terrorism that threatens the security of Turkey and its citizens on its own. The rest of potential fighters against terrorism prefer to deal with it selectively, ignoring Ankara's legitimate demands.